Revisiting the relative effectiveness of slaughterhouses in Ireland to detect tuberculosis lesions in cattle (2014-2018).

Slaughterhouse or meat factory surveillance to detect factory lesions (FL) at slaughter is an important part of the bovine tuberculosis (bTB) eradication program in Ireland. The objective of this study was to quantify the effectiveness of Irish slaughterhouses or factories in submitting FL and the proportion of those submitted FL confirmed as being due to bTB in slaughtered cattle, and to identify and quantify the association of risk factors at animal, herd, and factory level with FL submission and confirmation. The data consisted of 6,611,854 animals slaughtered in Irish factories from 2014 to 2018 obtained from the Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine (DAFM), Ireland. Selected risk factors for this study included factory, year and month of slaughter, age, sex, breed, animal movement, ever inconclusive in the standard or severe skin test, herd type, herd size, and bTB history. The association of each risk factor on the FL submission and confirmation risk were analysed with univariable followed by a multivariable logistic regression with herd as random effect. Factories were ranked and compared based on the odds ratio (OR) obtained from the univariable (crude OR) and multivariable (adjusted OR) analysis. The average submission risk of all factories was 20 per 10,000 animals slaughtered, ranging from 1 to 42 per 10,000 animals slaughtered, and the average confirmation risk over all factories was 40.72%, ranging from 0.00 to 61.84%. The odds of submitting and confirming FL as bTB positive were higher in animals over eight years old compared to animals 1-2 years old (OR = 1.91, 95 CI 95% 1.77-2.06 and OR = 4.05, 95% CI 3.17-5.18, respectively), and were higher in animals that ever had inconclusive skin result based on severe interpretation (OR = 2.83, 95% CI 2.44-3.27 and OR = 4.48, 95% CI 2.66-7.54, respectively), animals originating from sucklers herds (OR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14 and OR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.11-1.55, respectively), or herds with bTB history in the past three years (OR = 4.46, 95% CI 4.28-4.66 and OR = 319.90, 95% CI 237.98-430.04, respectively). The odds of FL submission and confirmation decreased as the herd size increased (OR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.96 and OR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.78-0.86, respectively). An inverse relationship of FL submission and confirmation was present for variable sex and inconclusive skin result with standard interpretation, where submission odds were higher in males (OR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.10) and ever inconclusive animals (OR = 74.24, 95% CI 69.39-79.43), although the confirmation odds were lower (males OR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.56-0.76; ever inconclusive OR = 0.44, 95% CI 0.36-0.54). The crude and adjusted ranking of factories did not differ greatly for FL submission, indicating that factory-related factors may contribute significantly to the submission variation between factories. However, a substantial difference between crude and adjusted confirmation ranking was present which may indicate that animal and herd-related factors were associated to variation in confirmation risk between factories.

Investigating Farm Fragmentation as a Risk Factor for Bovine Tuberculosis in Cattle Herds: A Matched Case-Control Study from Northern Ireland.

Bovine tuberculosis remains a challenging endemic pathogen of cattle in many parts of the globe. Spatial clustering of Mycoacterium bovis molecular types in cattle suggests that local factors are the primary drivers of spread. Northern Ireland's agricultural landscape is comprised of highly fragmented farms, distributed across spatially discontinuous land parcels, and these highly fragmented farms are thought to facilitate localised spread. We conducted a matched case control study to quantify the risks of bovine tuberculosis breakdown with farm area, farm fragmentation, fragment dispersal, and contact with neighbouring herds. Whilst our results show small but significant increases in breakdown risk associated with each factor, these relationships were strongly confounded with the number of contiguous neighbours with bovine tuberculosis. Our key finding was that every infected neighbour led to an increase in the odds of breakdown by 40% to 50%, and that highly fragmented farms were almost twice as likely to have a bTB positive neighbour compared to nonfragmented farms. Our results suggest that after controlling for herd size, herd type, spatial and temporal factors, farm fragmentation increasingly exposes herds to infection originating from first-order spatial neighbours. Given Northern Ireland's particularly fragmented landscape, and reliance on short-term leases, our data support the hypothesis that between-herd contiguous spread is a particularly important component of the region's bovine tuberculosis disease system.

Exploring the Opinions of Irish Beef Farmers Regarding Dairy Beef Integration.

Background: There has been very little previous research in Ireland on the opinions of farmers regarding dairy beef integration. The need for increased dairy beef integration has assumed a greater importance in Ireland in recent years due to a rapid expansion in dairy production, and associated increase in numbers of male dairy calves born on Irish farms. The objective of this study was to explore beef farmers' views on a broad range of issues related to dairy beef integration, using a survey methodology. The survey was distributed to approximately 4,250 beef farmers via email and 1,203 participated in the study. Results: The sample was composed almost entirely of beef farmers, although a very small proportion also had a dairy enterprise on their farm. Eighty percent of the farmers were concerned with the increase in the number of male dairy calves in recent years. Fifty seven percent of farmers responded that they were not willing to rear dairy bred calves for beef. Limousin, Aberdeen Angus and Hereford were the breeds farmers would be most willing to rear for beef. Good health, breed, and conformation were ranked as the main factors calf rearers consider when buying calves. Expectation of poor profit margin, expectation of poor-quality calves, and price volatility/market uncertainty were the top ranked factors dissuading farmers from rearing dairy calves for beef. The main themes arising from the qualitative question related to beef price/ability to make a profit, breed, and calf quality. Conclusions: While it is concerning that the majority of respondents expressed an unwillingness to rear dairy bred calves for beef, approximately a quarter of beef farmers indicated a willingness to rear beef-sired dairy calves for beef. In the qualitative responses, farmers described how their concerns about calf quality and their ability to make a profit from dairy bred calves would make it difficult for them to rear these calves for beef. Future strategy will have to consider how these challenges can be overcome and the issues of who bears the risks and costs associated with greater integration will have to be carefully considered.

Inferred duration of infectious period of SARS-CoV-2: rapid scoping review and analysis of available evidence for asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 cases.

OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to review the literature on the inferred duration of the infectious period of COVID-19, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus, and provide an overview of the variation depending on the methodological approach. DESIGN: Rapid scoping review. Literature review with fixed search terms, up to 1 April 2020. Central tendency and variation of the parameter estimates for infectious period in (A) asymptomatic and (B) symptomatic cases from (1) virological studies (repeated testing), (2) tracing studies and (3) modelling studies were gathered. Narrative review of viral dynamics. INFORMATION SOURCES: Search strategies developed and the following searched: PubMed, Google Scholar, MedRxiv and BioRxiv. Additionally, the Health Information Quality Authority (Ireland) viral load synthesis was used, which screened literature from PubMed, Embase, ScienceDirect, NHS evidence, Cochrane, medRxiv and bioRxiv, and HRB open databases. RESULTS: There was substantial variation in the estimates, and how infectious period was inferred. One study provided approximate median infectious period for asymptomatic cases of 6.5-9.5 days. Median presymptomatic infectious period across studies varied over <1-4 days. Estimated mean time from symptom onset to two negative RT-PCR tests was 13.4 days (95% CI 10.9 to 15.8) but was shorter when studies included children or less severe cases. Estimated mean duration from symptom onset to hospital discharge or death (potential maximal infectious period) was 18.1 days (95% CI 15.1 to 21.0); time to discharge was on average 4 days shorter than time to death. Viral dynamic data and model infectious parameters were often shorter than repeated diagnostic data. CONCLUSIONS: There are limitations of inferring infectiousness from repeated diagnosis, viral loads and viral replication data alone and also potential patient recall bias relevant to estimating exposure and symptom onset times. Despite this, available data provide a preliminary evidence base to inform models of central tendency for key parameters and variation for exploring parameter space and sensitivity analysis.