Landowners' Perspectives on Coordinated, Landscape-Level Invasive Species Control: The Role of Social and Ecological Context.

To achieve biodiversity gains, landowner engagement in coordinated invasive species control programs across private lands is needed. Understanding landowners' perspectives toward such coordinated control efforts is crucial to facilitating engagement. We conducted in person and mail surveys of 68 landowners in and adjacent to the area of a proposed invasive predator control program in New Zealand. We find that, similar to previous studies, landowners consider the potential socioeconomic and ecological benefits of invasive species control and express a strong desire to enhance native biodiversity. However, we also find that landowners take into account the complexity of the local social and ecological context in which a program will unfold in three ways: they consider (1) the level of contribution by other landowners and urban residents who are benefiting from collective control efforts; (2) the potential for the program to upset the local "ecological balance", leading to increases in other pests; and (3) the probability that the program will be successful given the likelihood of others participating and control tactics being effective. We suggest that managers of coordinated invasive species control efforts may benefit from devoting time and resources toward addressing beliefs about social and ecological context, rather than solely providing financial subsidies and information about control tactics or the impacts of invasive species.

Assessing Movements of Brushtail Possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) in Relation to Depopulated Buffer Zones for the Management of Wildlife Tuberculosis in New Zealand.

In New Zealand, managing the threat of bovine tuberculosis (TB) to livestock includes population reduction of potentially infectious wildlife, primarily the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). Population control is often targeted on forested buffer zones adjacent to farmland, in order to limit movements of possums across the buffer and reduce the risk of disease transmission to livestock. To assess the effectiveness of buffers in protecting livestock we analysed GPS telemetry data from possums located in untreated forest adjacent to buffers, and used these data to characterise patterns of movement that could lead to possums reaching farmland during the season when most dispersal occurs. Analyses of movement data showed that the direction of dispersal by sub-adult and adult possums and the extent of long exploratory movements were not biased toward forest buffers, even though these provided vacant habitat as suitable for possums as untreated forest. Instead, dispersal and exploratory movements were uncommon even for sub-adult possums and such events typically lasted <10 days. Dispersing possums settled predominantly in river valleys. A simulation model was developed for the 3-6-month dispersal season; it demonstrated a probability of <0.001 that an infected possum, originating from a low-density population with low disease prevalence in untreated forest, would move across 3 km of recently controlled forest buffer to reach farmland. Our results indicate short-term reduction in the risk of TB transmission from possums to livestock in New Zealand by the use of depopulated buffer zones, while acknowledging that the threat of disease spread from untreated forest is likely to increase over time as possum population density and, potentially, TB prevalence among those possums, increase in the buffer zone.

Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems.

Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.

Predator-Free New Zealand: Conservation Country.

Eradications of invasive species from over 1000 small islands around the world have created conservation arks, but to truly address the threat of invasive species to islands, eradications must be scaled by orders of magnitude. New Zealand has eradicated invasive predators from 10% of its offshore island area and now proposes a vision to eliminate them from the entire country. We review current knowledge of invasive predator ecology and control technologies in New Zealand and the biological research, technological advances, social capacity and enabling policy required. We discuss the economic costs and benefits and conclude with a 50-year strategy for a predator-free New Zealand that is shown to be ecologically obtainable, socially desirable, and economically viable. The proposal includes invasive predator eradication from the two largest offshore islands, mammal-free mainland peninsulas, very large ecosanctuaries, plus thousands of small projects that will together merge eradication and control concepts on landscape scales.

Predicted responses of invasive mammal communities to climate-related changes in mast frequency in forest ecosystems.

Predicting the dynamics and impacts of multiple invasive species can be complex because ecological relationships, which occur among several trophic levels, are often incompletely understood. Further, the complexity of these trophic relationships exacerbates our inability to predict climate change effects on invaded ecosystems. We explore the hypothesis that interactions between two global change drivers, invasive vertebrates and climate change, will potentially make matters worse for native biodiversity. In New Zealand beech (Nothofagus spp.) forests, a highly irruptive invasive mammal community is driven by multi-annual resource pulses of beech seed (masting). Because mast frequency is predicted to increase with climate change, we use this as a model system to explore the extent to which such effects may influence invasive vertebrate communities, and the implications of such interactions for native biodiversity and its management. We build on an established model of trophic interactions in the system, combining it with a logistic probability mast function, the parameters of which were altered to simulate either contemporary conditions or conditions of more or less frequent masting. The model predicts that increased mast frequency will lead to populations of a top predator (the stoat) and a mesopredator (the ship rat) becoming less irruptive and being maintained at appreciably higher average abundances in this forest type. In addition, the ability of both current and in-development management approaches to suppress invasive mammals is predicted to be compromised. Because invasive mammals are key drivers of native fauna extinction in New Zealand, with the additional loss of associated functions such as pollination and seed dispersal, these predictions imply potentially serious adverse impacts of climate change for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem function. Our study also highlights the importance of long-term monitoring data for assessing and managing future impacts of global change drivers.

Asynchronous food-web pathways could buffer the response of Serengeti predators to El Niño Southern Oscillation.

Understanding how entire ecosystems maintain stability in the face of climatic and human disturbance is one of the most fundamental challenges in ecology. Theory suggests that a crucial factor determining the degree of ecosystem stability is simply the degree of synchrony with which different species in ecological food webs respond to environmental stochasticity. Ecosystems in which all food-web pathways are affected similarly by external disturbance should amplify variability in top carnivore abundance over time due to population interactions, whereas ecosystems in which a large fraction of pathways are nonresponsive or even inversely responsive to external disturbance will have more constant levels of abundance at upper trophic levels. To test the mechanism underlying this hypothesis, we used over half a century of demographic data for multiple species in the Serengeti (Tanzania) ecosystem to measure the degree of synchrony to variation imposed by an external environmental driver, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO effects were mediated largely via changes in dry-season vs. wet-season rainfall and consequent changes in vegetation availability, propagating via bottom-up effects to higher levels of the Serengeti food web to influence herbivores, predators and parasites. Some species in the Serengeti food web responded to the influence of ENSO in opposite ways, whereas other species were insensitive to variation in ENSO. Although far from conclusive, our results suggest that a diffuse mixture of herbivore responses could help buffer top carnivores, such as Serengeti lions, from variability in climate. Future global climate changes that favor some pathways over others, however, could alter the effectiveness of such processes in the future.

Of mast and mean: differential-temperature cue makes mast seeding insensitive to climate change.

Mast-seeding plants often produce high seed crops the year after a warm spring or summer, but the warm-temperature model has inconsistent predictive ability. Here, we show for 26 long-term data sets from five plant families that the temperature difference between the two previous summers (ΔT) better predicts seed crops. This discovery explains how masting species tailor their flowering patterns to sites across altitudinal temperature gradients; predicts that masting will be unaffected by increasing mean temperatures under climate change; improves prediction of impacts on seed consumers; demonstrates that strongly masting species are hypersensitive to climate; explains the rarity of consecutive high-seed years without invoking resource constraints; and generates hypotheses about physiological mechanisms in plants and insect seed predators. For plants, ΔT has many attributes of an ideal cue. This temperature-difference model clarifies our understanding of mast seeding under environmental change, and could also be applied to other cues, such as rainfall.

Incorporating genotype uncertainty into mark-recapture-type models for estimating abundance using DNA samples.

Sampling DNA noninvasively has advantages for identifying animals for uses such as mark-recapture modeling that require unique identification of animals in samples. Although it is possible to generate large amounts of data from noninvasive sources of DNA, a challenge is overcoming genotyping errors that can lead to incorrect identification of individuals. A major source of error is allelic dropout, which is failure of DNA amplification at one or more loci. This has the effect of heterozygous individuals being scored as homozygotes at those loci as only one allele is detected. If errors go undetected and the genotypes are naively used in mark-recapture models, significant overestimates of population size can occur. To avoid this it is common to reject low-quality samples but this may lead to the elimination of large amounts of data. It is preferable to retain these low-quality samples as they still contain usable information in the form of partial genotypes. Rather than trying to minimize error or discarding error-prone samples we model dropout in our analysis. We describe a method based on data augmentation that allows us to model data from samples that include uncertain genotypes. Application is illustrated using data from the European badger (Meles meles).

Understanding ecosystem dynamics for conservation of biota.

1. Ecosystems have higher-order emerging properties that can affect the conservation of species. We identify some of these properties in order to facilitate a better understanding of them. 2. Nonlinear, indirect effects of food web interactions among species can produce counterintuitive changes in populations. 3. Species differ in their roles and linkages with other species in the system. These roles are a property of the system. Such differences in roles influence how we conserve individual species. 4. Ecosystems operate at a multitude of interacting spatial and temporal scales, which together structure the system and affect the dynamics of individual populations. 5. Disturbance also structures an ecosystem, producing both long-term slow changes and sudden shifts in ecosystem dynamics. 6. Ecosystems therefore can have multiple states, determined both by disturbance regimes and biotic interactions. Conservation should recognize a possible multiplicity of natural states while avoiding aberrant (human-induced) states. 7. Ecosystem processes are influenced by the composition of the biota they contain. Disturbances to the biota can distort processes and functions, which in turn can endanger individual species. 8. The goal of ecosystem conservation is the long-term persistence of the biota in the system. There are two paradigms: community-based conservation (CBC) and protected area conservation. Both have their advantages but neither is sufficient to protect the biota on its own. 9. CBC is required to conserve the majority of the world's biota not included in protected areas. However, current CBC methods favour a few idiosyncratic species, distort the species complex, and ignore the majority. More comprehensive methods are required for this approach to meet the goal of ecosystem conservation. 10. Protected areas are essential to conserve species unable to coexist with humans. They also function as ecological baselines to monitor the effects of humans on their own ecosystems. 11. However, protected areas suffer from loss of habitat through attrition of critical areas. Thus, renewal (addition) of habitat is required in order to achieve the long-term persistence of biota in functioning ecosystems. Identification of minimum habitat areas and restoration of ecosystems become two major priorities for future research.