Development of a data-driven COVID-19 prognostication tool to inform triage and step-down care for hospitalised patients in Hong Kong: A population based cohort study

BackgroundThis is the first study on prognostication in an entire cohort of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients in the city of Hong Kong. Prognostic tool is essential in the contingency response for the next wave of outbreak. This study aims to develop prognostic models to predict COVID-19 patients clinical outcome on day 1 and day 5 of hospital admission. MethodsWe did a retrospective analysis of a complete cohort of 1,037 COVID-19 laboratory-confirmed patients in Hong Kong as of 30 April 2020, who were admitted to 16 public hospitals with their data sourced from an integrated electronic health records system. It covered demographic information, chronic disease(s) history, presenting symptoms as well as the worst clinical condition status, biomarkers readings and Ct value of PCR tests on Day-1 and Day-5 of admission. The study subjects were randomly split into training and testing datasets in a 8:2 ratio. Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was used to classify the training data into three disease severity groups on Day-1 and Day-5. ResultsThe 1,037 patients had a mean age of 37.8 (SD{+/-}17.8), 53.8% of them were male. They were grouped under three disease outcome: 4.8% critical/serious, 46.8% stable and 48.4% satisfactory. Under the full models, 30 indicators on Day-1 and Day-5 were used to predict the patients disease outcome and achieved an accuracy rate of 92.3% and 99.5%. With a trade-off between practical application and predictive accuracy, the full models were reduced into simpler models with seven common specific predictors, including the worst clinical condition status (4-level), age group, and five biomarkers, namely, CRP, LDH, platelet, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and albumin/globulin ratio. Day-1 models accuracy rate, macro- and micro-averaged sensitivity and specificity were 91.3%, 84.9%-91.3% and 96.0%-95.7% respectively, as compared to 94.2%, 95.9%-94.2% and 97.8%-97.1% under Day-5 model. ConclusionsBoth Day-1 and Day-5 models can accurately predict the disease severity. Relevant clinical management could be planned according to the predicted patients outcome. The model is transformed into a simple online calculator to provide convenient clinical reference tools at the point of care, with an aim to inform clinical decision on triage and step-down care.

Functional outcome after major lower extremity amputation: a survey on lower extremity amputees

The post-operatve course of amputees is poorly documented. This cross-sectional survey was unertaken to determine functional outcomes of 213 patients who had undergone either a below-knee or above-knee amputation from 2000 to 2002 in a state-hospital setting. The study comprises a self-constructed questionnaire and interview conducted by phone. Of the 213 amputees, 41 out of 61 documented telephone numbers of the patients were useful for contact. Only 30 amputees were available for the study as the remaining 11 had passed away. Included in the questionnaire was the modified Barthel Index, a measurement to assess the amputees' ability to carry out activities of daily living (ADL). It contains ten questions pertaining to ADL with a total score of 20 points. Two-thirds of the respondents (67%) use their prosthesis for less than six hours per day. The Barthel Index of 30 patients ranged from 9-20 (mean 17.7). However, the mean Barthel Index in those with and without prosthesis was 18.4 and 15.2 respectively, but this difference was not significant. Half of the respondents were unable to maintain their pre-amputation jobs, while the remaining 50% were still able to work. Forty seven percent of amputees took less than a year to return to their activities, while 33% took between one to two years. Regarding the adequacy of preamputation information provided by the doctors, 73% amputees responded in the affirmative, while 27% felt otherwise. Amputees were still facing substantial disabilities following major amputation of the lower limb. Although 80% of respondents surveyed own prosthesis, the full use of prosthesis is suboptimal due to prosthetic-related problems. Most amputees had a good functional outcome based on the modified Barthel Index. Some amputees were unhappy as they felt that they were insufficiently informed regarding post-amputation expectation prior to the amputation. Despite good support from family, the community support for amputees is still lacking.

Adequacy of pain relief in closed manipulative reduction of fracture and dislocation

Adequate pain relief is a requisite for a successful closed manipulative reduction (CMR) of fractures and dislocations. This prospective study was undertaken to assess the mode and adequacy of pain relief given to patients undergoing such procedures at Seremban Hospital from the 1st April to the 31st May 2001. All patients with fractures and dislocations scheduled to undergo CMR were included in this study. The type of sedative agents and analgesia administered were recorded. Demographic data and the type of fracture or dislocation of the selected patients were documented. A visual analogue scale (VAS) for pain perception was given to both to the patients and the medical personnel who performed the procedure. All data were collected manually before entered into computerized database for analysis. Of 72 patients included in this study, 47% were Malay, 26% Indian, 21% Chinese and 6% others. There was male predominance and the patients' age ranged between 9 to 79 years (average 27.4 years). Upper limb injuries (79%) were mainly fractures of the radius and ulna (29%) and isolated fracture radius (21%). For the lower limb injuries (21%), combined tibia and fibula fractures constituted 10% of the total cases followed by isolated tibia fractures (10%) and hip dislocation (1%). The most common pain relieving agents given during the CMR were intravenous pethidine alone (43%) followed by combination of intravenous pethidine and valium (36%), intramuscular pethidine (17%) and intramuscular tramal (4%). The Visual Analogue Score (VAS) for pain perception revealed that 61% of the patients had moderate pain while 21% had severe pain during the course of the procedures. Suboptimal pain relief administered during CMR should prompt positive actions to ensure that the patient is not subjected to undue pain just for the sake of an acceptable fracture reduction.

The epidemiology of shoulder dislocation in a state-hospital: a review of 106 cases.

This retrospective study was conducted in a state hospital set-up and aimed at identifying the magnitude of shoulder dislocations and their demographic data, characteristics of the injury, mechanism and predisposing factors, and the instituted treatment. Patients with radiographic evidence of shoulder dislocation admitted to the hospital from January 1999 to December 2002 were included. Data were recorded from the case notes. There were 105 shoulder dislocations with male predomination in 77% cases and age ranged between 11 and 90 years (average 30.9 years). The right shoulder was affected in 68% of the cases. The contributing events were fall in 37% of cases, road traffic accident 23%, sports 17% and pathological conditions 13%. Anterior dislocation occurred in 96.2% of the cases. Posterior and inferior dislocations encountered in two patients for each type. Twelve dislocations were associated fracture of the greater tuberosity, two each with humeral neck fracture and cerebral injuries. First time dislocation occurred in 73.6% of the cases. The recurrences ranged between 2 to 6 times (average 3.4 times). Closed manipulative reduction and strapping was the definitive treatment in 92.4% of the cases and the remaining needed surgical reconstruction. Four patients had open reduction and internal fixation of the associated fractures while another four had arthroscopic Bankart's repair. In conclusion, shoulder dislocation represents the most common shoulder problems. It afflicted young adults of reproductive age (21-40 years) and participation in sports was a risk factor in men. Women over 40 years and fall were at risk to develop shoulder dislocation.

Sports-related shoulder dislocations: a state-hospital experience.

This retrospective study was conducted in a state hospital set-up and aimed at identifying the incidence of sports-related shoulder dislocations and their characteristics and the sports events involved. All patients with shoulder dislocation related to sporting activities admitted to the hospital from January 1999 to December 2002 were included in the study. There were 18 sports-related shoulder dislocations out of 106 all shoulder dislocations admitted during this 4-year period. The average age of the patients was 25.4 years. All but two were male. All were anterior dislocations. Recurrent dislocation constitutes 78% of the cases with an average of 3 times re-dislocation. Rugby and badminton were the major contributors to the injuries followed by volleyball, soccer and swimming. Conservative treatment was successfully instituted for 88% of the patients and 12% opted for surgical intervention.

The epidemiology of shoulder dislocation in a state-hospital: a review of 106 cases

This retrospective study was conducted in a state hospital set-up and aimed at identifying the magnitude of shoulder dislocations and their demographic data, characteristics of the injury, mechanism and predisposing factors, and the instituted treatment. Patients with radiographic evidence of shoulder dislocation admitted to the hospital from January 1999 to December 2002 were included. Data were recorded from the case notes. There were 105 shoulder dislocations with male predomination in 77% cases and age ranged between 11 and 90 years (average 30.9 years). The right shoulder was affected in 68% of the cases. The contributing events were fall in 37% of cases, road traffic accident 23%, sports 17% and pathological conditions 13%. Anterior dislocation occurred in 96.2% of the cases. Posterior and inferior dislocations encountered in two patients for each type. Twelve dislocations were associated fracture of the greater tuberosity, two each with humeral neck fracture and cerebral injuries. First time dislocation occurred in 73.6% of the cases. The recurrences ranged between 2 to 6 times (average 3.4 times). Closed manipulative reduction and strapping was the definitive treatment in 92.4% of the cases and the remaining needed surgical reconstruction. Four patients had open reduction and internal fixation of the associated fractures while another four had arthroscopic Bankart's repair. In conclusion, shoulder dislocation represents the most common shoulder problems. It afflicted young adults of reproductive age (21-40 years) and participation in sports was a risk factor in men. Women over 40 years and fall were at risk to develop shoulder dislocation.

Sports-related shoulder dislocations: a state-hospital experience

This retrospective study was conducted in a state hospital set-up and aimed at identifying the incidence of sports-related shoulder dislocations and their characteristics and the sports events involved. All patients with shoulder dislocation related to sporting activities admitted to the hospital from January 1999 to December 2002 were included in the study. There were 18 sports-related shoulder dislocations out of 106 all shoulder dislocations admitted during this 4-year period. The average age of the patients was 25.4 years. All but two were male. All were anterior dislocations. Recurrent dislocation constitutes 78% of the cases with an average of 3 times re-dislocation. Rugby and badminton were the major contributors to the injuries followed by volleyball, soccer and swimming. Conservative treatment was successfully instituted for 88% of the patients and 12% opted for surgical intervention.

Unicameral bone cyst of the calcaneum.

The calcaneus is not a common site for a unicameral solitary bone cyst. Little is known about the etiology and natural history of these lesions. The author reports an adult man with a solitary bone cyst of the os calcis which was confirmed radiologically and histologically and successfully treated with curretage and bone grafting.

Unicameral bone cyst of the calcaneum

The calcaneus is not a common site for a unicameral solitary bone cyst. Little is known about the etiology and natural history of these lesions. The author reports an adult man with a solitary bone cyst of the os calcis which was confirmed radiologically and histologically and successfully treated with curretage and bone grafting.