Spatiotemporal analysis of suicide attempts in Colombia from 2018 to 2020.

Suicide is one of the leading death causes worldwide, mainly among young adults, and Colombia has experienced an increase during the XXI century. The suicide impact has diverged between age groups and locations in Colombia, where young adults have taken higher incidences than the other age groups. The COVID-19 lockdown induced changes in mental health, affecting the previous suicide trends in the country. We conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of suicide attempts in Colombia per age group, adopting Bayesian models that represent 85,526 individual records in 1,121 municipalities from 2018 to 2020 using R-INLA. We found that Colombia exhibited an increase in suicide-attempt incidence from 2018 to 2019, and suddenly, the incidence fell in the first semester of 2020. The fixed effect of the models evidenced the highest risk in overall municipalities per trimester in the age group between 15-19 years old. The spatial random effect per model evidenced municipalities with the highest risk in the age groups between 10 to 59 years, mainly in the states in the Andean region of Colombia, and other states such as Putumayo, Vaupés, Arauca, Córdoba, Amazonas, and Meta. The temporal random effect evidenced a decay in suicide trends from the fourth trimester of 2019 to 2020, except in the age group > 59 years old. Geographically, our study pinpointed specific regions in Colombia, particularly in the central, southwest, and southeast areas, where the incidence of suicide attempts exceeded 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The nuanced breakdown of incidence across different age groups further underscores the importance of tailoring preventive strategies based on age-specific and regional risk factors.

The effect of environmental variations on the production of the principal agricultural products in Colombia.

The agricultural sector of Colombia supports the national economy and food security due to the rich lands for cultivation. Although Colombia has a vast hydrological basin, climate change can impact agricultural productivity, generating economic and social adverse effects. For this, we evaluated the impact of some environmental variables on the production of the most sold crops using production, climatic, and hydrological data of the 1121 municipalities from 2007 to 2020. We modeled the production of coffee, rice, palm oil, sugarcane, and corn, adopting a Bayesian spatio-temporal model that involved a set of environmental variables: average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, vapor pressure, radiation, and wind speed. We found that increases in the average temperatures can affect coffee (-0.2% per °C), rice (-3.76% per °C), and sugarcane (-0.19% per °C) production, meanwhile, these increases can boost palm oil (+2.55% per °C) and corn (+1.28% per °C) production in Colombia. This statement implies that the agricultural sector needs to substitute land use, promoting the production of palm oil and corn. Although our results did not find a significant effect of hydrological variables in any crop, suggesting that the abundance of water in Colombia might balance the impact of these variables. The increases in vapor pressure impact all the crops negatively (between -11.2% to -0.43% per kPa), except rice, evidencing that dry air conditions affect agricultural production. Colombia must manage the production location of the traditional products and implement agro-industrial technologies to avoid the climate change impact on crops.

Spatiotemporal analysis of suicide attempts in Colombia from 2018 to 2020 / Análisis espacio-temporal de los intentos de suicidio en Colombia de 2018 a 2020 / Análise espaço-temporal das tentativas de suicídio na Colômbia de 2018 a 2020

Suicide is one of the leading death causes worldwide, mainly among young adults, and Colombia has experienced an increase during the XXI century. The suicide impact has diverged between age groups and locations in Colombia, where young adults have taken higher incidences than the other age groups. The COVID-19 lockdown induced changes in mental health, affecting the previous suicide trends in the country. We conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of suicide attempts in Colombia per age group, adopting Bayesian models that represent 85,526 individual records in 1,121 municipalities from 2018 to 2020 using R-INLA. We found that Colombia exhibited an increase in suicide-attempt incidence from 2018 to 2019, and suddenly, the incidence fell in the first semester of 2020. The fixed effect of the models evidenced the highest risk in overall municipalities per trimester in the age group between 15-19 years old. The spatial random effect per model evidenced municipalities with the highest risk in the age groups between 10 to 59 years, mainly in the states in the Andean region of Colombia, and other states such as Putumayo, Vaupés, Arauca, Córdoba, Amazonas, and Meta. The temporal random effect evidenced a decay in suicide trends from the fourth trimester of 2019 to 2020, except in the age group > 59 years old. Geographically, our study pinpointed specific regions in Colombia, particularly in the central, southwest, and southeast areas, where the incidence of suicide attempts exceeded 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The nuanced breakdown of incidence across different age groups further underscores the importance of tailoring preventive strategies based on age-specific and regional risk factors.

El suicidio es una de las principales causas de muerte a nivel mundial, principalmente entre adultos jóvenes, y Colombia ha experimentado un aumento durante el siglo XXI. El impacto del suicidio ha divergido entre grupos de edad y ubicaciones en Colombia, donde los adultos jóvenes han tenido mayores incidencias que los otros grupos de edad. El confinamiento por la COVID-19 indujo cambios en la salud mental, afectando las tendencias suicidas anteriores en el país. Realizamos un análisis espacio-temporal de los intentos de suicidio en Colombia por grupo de edad, adoptando modelos bayesianos que representan 85.526 registros individuales en 1.121 municipios de 2018 a 2020 utilizando R-INLA. Encontramos que Colombia exhibió un aumento en la incidencia de intentos de suicidio de 2018 a 2019, y repentinamente, la incidencia cayó en el primer semestre de 2020. El efecto fijo de los modelos evidenció el mayor riesgo en el total de municipios por trimestre en el grupo de edad entre 15-19 años. El efecto aleatorio espacial por modelo evidenció los municipios con mayor riesgo en los grupos de edad entre 10 a 59 años, principalmente en los estados de la región andina de Colombia, y otros estados como Putumayo, Vaupés, Arauca, Córdoba, Amazonas y Meta. El efecto aleatorio temporal evidenció una disminución en las tendencias suicidas del cuarto trimestre de 2019 a 2020, excepto en el grupo etario > 59 años. Geográficamente, nuestro estudio identificó regiones específicas de Colombia, particularmente en las zonas central, suroeste y sureste, donde la incidencia de intentos de suicidio superó los 100 casos por 100.000 habitantes. El desglose matizado de la incidencia entre diferentes grupos de edad subraya aún más la importancia de adaptar las estrategias preventivas en función de factores de riesgo regionales y específicos de la edad.

O suicídio é uma das principais causas de morte em todo o mundo, principalmente entre adultos jovens, e a Colômbia experimentou um aumento durante o século XXI. O impacto do suicídio divergiu entre grupos etários e locais na Colômbia, onde os adultos jovens tiveram incidências mais elevadas do que os outros grupos etários. O confinamento da COVID-19 induziu mudanças na saúde mental, afetando as tendências anteriores de suicídio no país. Realizamos uma análise espaço-temporal das tentativas de suicídio na Colômbia por faixa etária, adotando modelos bayesianos que representam 85.526 registros individuais em 1.121 municípios de 2018 a 2020 usando R-INLA. Descobrimos que a Colômbia apresentou um aumento na incidência de tentativas de suicídio de 2018 a 2019 e, repentinamente, a incidência caiu no primeiro semestre de 2020. O efeito fixo dos modelos evidenciou o maior risco no geral dos municípios por trimestre na faixa etária entre 15-19 anos. O efeito aleatório espacial por modelo evidenciou municípios com maior risco nas faixas etárias entre 10 a 59 anos, principalmente na região andina da Colômbia e em outros estados como Putumayo, Vaupés, Arauca, Córdoba, Amazonas e Meta. O efeito aleatório temporal evidenciou queda nas tendências de suicídio do quarto trimestre de 2019 para 2020, exceto na faixa etária > 59 anos. Geograficamente, nosso estudo identificou regiões específicas da Colômbia, particularmente nas áreas central, sudoeste e sudeste, onde a incidência de tentativas de suicídio ultrapassou 100 casos por 100 mil habitantes. A repartição matizada da incidência entre diferentes grupos etários sublinha ainda mais a importância de adaptar estratégias preventivas com base em factores de risco regionais e específicos da idade.