Progesterone level on the day of hCG administration in relation to the pregnancy rates of patients undergoing assisted reproduction techniques.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive capacity for pregnancy of the progesterone level on the day of administering human chorionic gonadotropin, in women submitted to assisted reproductive techniques. METHODS: An observational study with 914 women submitted to assisted reproductive techniques from August 2014 to June 2016. RESULTS: Total pregnancy rate was 34.58%; in that, the pregnancy rate in women <35 years, between 35 and 38, and >38 years was, respectively, 42.3%, 38.7% and 16.1% (p<0.001). For embryo transfer in the same cycle, and progesterone of 1.3ng/dL, sensitivity was 4.78%, specificity, 84.18%, accuracy, 56.72%, positive likelihood ratio of 0.3019, and negative likelihood ratio of 1.1312, with receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.46 (95%CI: 0.42-0.49). CONCLUSION: The progesterone level on the day of administering human chorionic gonadotropin of 1.3ng/dL differs from that empirically adopted at the study site (1.7ng/dL), and has a better predictive capacity for pregnancy in the patients studied. However, the low sensitivity of this examination raises questions about its real importance.

Progesterone level on the day of hCG administration in relation to the pregnancy rates of patients undergoing assisted reproduction techniques / Valor da progesterona no dia do hCG em relação à taxa de gravidez de pacientes submetidas às técnicas de reprodução assistida

ABSTRACT Objective To evaluate the predictive capacity for pregnancy of the progesterone level on the day of administering human chorionic gonadotropin, in women submitted to assisted reproductive techniques. Methods An observational study with 914 women submitted to assisted reproductive techniques from August 2014 to June 2016. Results Total pregnancy rate was 34.58%; in that, the pregnancy rate in women <35 years, between 35 and 38, and >38 years was, respectively, 42.3%, 38.7% and 16.1% (p<0.001). For embryo transfer in the same cycle, and progesterone of 1.3ng/dL, sensitivity was 4.78%, specificity, 84.18%, accuracy, 56.72%, positive likelihood ratio of 0.3019, and negative likelihood ratio of 1.1312, with receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.46 (95%CI: 0.42-0.49). Conclusion The progesterone level on the day of administering human chorionic gonadotropin of 1.3ng/dL differs from that empirically adopted at the study site (1.7ng/dL), and has a better predictive capacity for pregnancy in the patients studied. However, the low sensitivity of this examination raises questions about its real importance.

RESUMO Objetivo Avaliar a capacidade preditiva para gravidez do valor de progesterona no dia da administração da gonadotrofina coriônica humana em mulheres submetidas às técnicas de reprodução assistida. Métodos Estudo observacional com 914 mulheres submetidas a reprodução assistida de agosto de 2014 até junho de 2016. Resultados Engravidaram 34,58% das mulheres, sendo a taxa de gravidez naquelas >35 anos, entre 35 e 38 anos e >38 anos, respectivamente, de 42,3%, 38,7% e 16,1% (p<0,001). Para o valor de progesterona até 1,3ng/dL visando à transferência embrionária no mesmo ciclo, encontraram-se sensibilidade de 4,78%, especificidade de 84,18%, acurácia de 56,72%, razão de verossimilhança positiva de 0,3019 e razão de verossimilhança negativa de 1,1312, com área sob a curva característica de operação do receptor de 0,46 (IC95%: 0,42-0,49). Conclusão O valor de progesterona no dia da administração de gonadotrofina coriônica humana até 1,3ng/dL difere daquele empiricamente adotado no local do estudo (1,7ng/dL) e apresenta melhor capacidade preditiva para gravidez nas pacientes estudadas. No entanto, a baixa sensibilidade deste exame abre questionamentos sobre sua real importância.