Inferring urban polycentricity from the variability in human mobility patterns.

The polycentric city model has gained popularity in spatial planning policy, since it is believed to overcome some of the problems often present in monocentric metropolises, ranging from congestion to difficult accessibility to jobs and services. However, the concept 'polycentric city' has a fuzzy definition and as a result, the extent to which a city is polycentric cannot be easily determined. Here, we leverage the fine spatio-temporal resolution of smart travel card data to infer urban polycentricity by examining how a city departs from a well-defined monocentric model. In particular, we analyse the human movements that arise as a result of sophisticated forms of urban structure by introducing a novel probabilistic approach which captures the complexity of these human movements. We focus on London (UK) and Seoul (South Korea) as our two case studies, and we specifically find evidence that London displays a higher degree of monocentricity than Seoul, suggesting that Seoul is likely to be more polycentric than London.

Understanding internal migration in the UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic using twitter data.

The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly affected internal migration patterns and may last beyond the pandemic. It raises the need to monitor the migration in an economical, effective and timely way. Benefitting from the advancement of geolocation data collection techniques, we used near real-time and fine-grained Twitter data to monitor migration patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic, dated from January 2019 to December 2021. Based on geocoding and estimating home locations, we proposed five indices depicting migration patterns, which are demonstrated by applying an empirical study at national and local authority scales to the UK. Our findings point to complex social processes unfolding differently over space and time. In particular, the pandemic and lockdown policies significantly reduced the rate of migration. Furthermore, we found a trend of people moving out of large cities to the nearby rural areas, and also conjunctive cities if there is one, before and during the peak of the pandemic. The trend of moving to rural areas became more significant in 2020 and most people who moved out had not returned by the end of 2021, although large cities recovered more quickly than other regions. Our results of monthly migration matrixes are validated to be consistent with official migration flow data released by the Office for National Statistics, but have finer temporal granularity and can be updated more frequently. This study demonstrates that Twitter data is highly valuable for migration trend analysis despite the biases in population representation.

Urban population size and road traffic collisions in Europe.

Millions of road traffic collisions take place every year, leading to significant knock-on effects. Many of these traffic collisions take place in urban areas, where traffic levels can be elevated. Yet, little is known about the extent to which urban population size impacts road traffic collision rates. Here, we use urban scaling models to analyse geographic and road traffic collision data from over 300 European urban areas in order to study this issue. Our results show that there is no significant change in the number of road traffic collisions per person for urban areas of different sizes. However, we find individual urban locations with traffic collision rates which are remarkably high. These findings have the potential to inform policies for the allocation of resources to prevent road traffic collisions across the different cities.

The effect of dragon-kings on the estimation of scaling law parameters.

Scaling laws are used to model how different quantifiable properties of cities, such as the number of road traffic accidents or average house prices, vary as a function of city population size, with parameters estimated from data. Arcaute et al. raised the issue of whether specific cities with extremely large population sizes, known as dragon-kings, should be considered separately from other smaller cities when estimating the scaling law parameters since the two types of cities tend to display different behaviour. Through the analysis of randomly generated samples, we find that the inclusion of dragon-kings in the scaling analysis does not affect the estimated values for the parameters but only provided that all the data points satisfy the same scaling law. We also analyse randomly generated samples where data corresponding to a particular city deviates from the scaling law followed by the rest of the cities. We then show that deviations corresponding to dragon-king cities have the most significant effect on the estimated values of the scaling parameters. The extent of this effect also depends on which estimation procedure is used. Our results have important implications on the suitability of scaling laws as a model for urban systems.

A continuous binning for discrete, sparse and concentrated observations.

Discrete observations from data which are obtained from sparse, and yet concentrated events are often observed (e.g. road accidents or murders). Traditional methods to compute summary statistics often include placing the data in discrete bins but for this type of data this approach often results in large numbers of empty bins for which no function or summary statistic can be computed. Here, a method for dealing with sparse and concentrated observations is constructed, based on a sequence of non-overlapping bins of varying size, which gives a continuous interpolation of data for computing summary statistics of the values for the data, such as the mean. The method presented here overcomes the problem which sparsity and concentration present when computing functions to represent the data. Implementation of the method presented here is facilitated via open access to the code. •A new method for computing functions over sparse and concentrated data is constructed.•The method allows straightforward functions to be computed over partitions of the data, such as the mean, but also more complicated functions, such as coefficients, ratios, correlations, regressions and others.