RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Baseline cardiovascular toxicity risk stratification is critical in cardio-oncology. The Heart Failure Association (HFA) and International Cardio-Oncology Society (ICOS) score aims to assess this risk but lacks real-life validation. This study validates the HFA-ICOS score for anthracycline-induced cardiovascular toxicity. METHODS: Anthracycline-treated patients in the CARDIOTOX registry (NCT02039622) were stratified by the HFA-ICOS score. The primary endpoint was symptomatic or moderate to severe asymptomatic cancer therapy-related cardiac dysfunction (CTRCD), with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality as secondary endpoints. RESULTS: The analysis included 1066 patients (mean age 54 ± 14 years; 81.9% women; 24.5% ≥65 years). According to the HFA-ICOS criteria, 571 patients (53.6%) were classified as low risk, 333 (31.2%) as moderate risk, 152 (14.3%) as high risk, and 10 (0.9%) as very high risk. Median follow-up was 54.8 months (interquartile range 24.6-81.8). A total of 197 patients (18.4%) died, and 718 (67.3%) developed CTRCD (symptomatic: n = 45; moderate to severe asymptomatic: n = 24; and mild asymptomatic: n = 649). Incidence rates of symptomatic or moderate to severe symptomatic CTRCD and all-cause mortality significantly increased with HFA-ICOS score [hazard ratio 28.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.33-88.5; P < .001, and hazard ratio 7.43, 95% CI 3.21-17.2; P < .001) for very high-risk patients. The predictive model demonstrated good calibration (Brier score 0.04, 95% CI 0.03-0.05) and discrimination (area under the curve 0.78, 95% CI 0.70-0.82; Uno's C-statistic 0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.84) for predicting symptomatic or severe/moderate asymptomatic CTRCD at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: The HFA-ICOS score effectively categorizes patients by cardiovascular toxicity risk and demonstrates strong predictive ability for high-risk anthracycline-related cardiovascular toxicity and all-cause mortality.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Early prognosis in comatose survivors after cardiac arrest due to ventricular fibrillation (VF) is unreliable, especially in patients undergoing mild hypothermia. We aimed at developing a reliable risk-score to enable early prediction of cerebral performance and survival. METHODS: Sixty-one out of 239 consecutive patients undergoing mild hypothermia after cardiac arrest, with eventual return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), and comatose status on admission fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Background clinical variables, VF time and frequency domain fundamental variables were considered. The primary and secondary outcomes were a favorable neurological performance (FNP) during hospitalization and survival to hospital discharge, respectively. The predictive model was developed in a retrospective cohort (n = 32; September 2006-September 2011, 48.5 ± 10.5 months of follow-up) and further validated in a prospective cohort (n = 29; October 2011-July 2013, 5 ± 1.8 months of follow-up). RESULTS: FNP was present in 16 (50.0%) and 21 patients (72.4%) in the retrospective and prospective cohorts, respectively. Seventeen (53.1%) and 21 patients (72.4%), respectively, survived to hospital discharge. Both outcomes were significantly associated (p < 0.001). Retrospective multivariate analysis provided a prediction model (sensitivity = 0.94, specificity = 1) that included spectral dominant frequency, derived power density and peak ratios between high and low frequency bands, and the number of shocks delivered before ROSC. Validation on the prospective cohort showed sensitivity = 0.88 and specificity = 0.91. A model-derived risk-score properly predicted 93% of FNP. Testing the model on follow-up showed a c-statistic ≥ 0.89. CONCLUSIONS: A spectral analysis-based model reliably correlates time-dependent VF spectral changes with acute cerebral injury in comatose survivors undergoing mild hypothermia after cardiac arrest.