Impact of the Three Gorges project on ecological environment changes and snail distribution in Dongting Lake area.

BACKGROUND: The Three Gorges Dam (TGD) is a remarkable, far-reaching project in China. This study was conducted to assess the impact of TGD on changes in the ecological environment, snail distribution and schistosomiasis transmission in Dongting Lake area. METHODS: Hydrological data were collected from 12 monitoring sites in Hunan section of Yangtze River before and after TGD was established. Data on snail distribution and human schistosomiasis infection were also collected. Correlation analyses were performed to detect the significance of snail distribution to changes in ecological environmental factors and human schistosomiasis infection. FINDINGS: A series of ecological environmental factors have changed in Dongting Lake area following the operation of TGD. Volume of annual runoff discharged into Dongting Lake declined by 20.85%. Annual sediment volume discharged into the lake and the mean lake sedimentation rate decreased by 73.9% and 32.2%, respectively. From 2003 to 2015, occurrence rate of frames with living snails and mean density of living snails decreased overall by 82.43% and 94.35%, respectively, with annual decrements being 13.49% and 21.29%. Moreover, human infection rate of schistosomiasis had decreased from 3.38% in 2003 to 0.44% in 2015, with a reduction of 86.98%. Correlation analyses showed that mean density of living snails was significantly associated with water level (r = 0.588, p<0.001), as well as the mean elevation range of the bottomland (r = 0.374, p = 0.025) and infection rate of schistosomiasis (r = 0.865, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Ecological environmental changes caused by the TGD were associated with distribution of snails, and might further affect the transmission and prevalence of schistosomiasis. Risk of schistosomiasis transmission still exists in Dongting Lake area and long-term monitoring is required.

[Endemic features and control strategies of schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake area, Hunan Province, P. R. China].

This paper describes the epidemic status and current endemic features of schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake area and analyzes the achievements and weakness of various control measures. It also summarizes the characteristics of epidemic situation in the Dongting Lake region, which indicates the long-term and the arduous work in the future for the control of schistosomiasis. In strategy, comprehensive measures should be implemented and routine prevention control work should be remained combing with the control of transmission sources.

[The use of unsupervised classification of Landsat-5 TM images in analysing the types of vegetation in the areas of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for water store"].

OBJECTIVE: To clarify the change of vegetation types and its relationship between the density of alive-snails in the areas of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for water store" in Jicheng. METHODS: Synthesized false color images of Jicheng before and after 1998 (1994 and 2003) were classified without supervision and results were compared. Vegetation types were identified on the spot. RESULTS: Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of snail habitats before 1998 were between 126 and 183 in Jicheng, whose vegetation types were mainly paddy, cotton and cabbage. NDVI of snail habitats in Jicheng after 1998 were between 152 and 193 whose vegetation types were mainly poplar forest, bulrush and grass. Areas of snail habitats increased from 64.64% to 66.47%. Snail habitats were mostly composed of mixed vegetation types and mono-typed vegetation was hardly found. According to the density of alive-snails orders from high to low were poplar forest and bulrush, poplar forest and grass, bulrush. CONCLUSION: Vegetation types would not be identified by unsupervised classification only. Poplar forest, bulrush and grass were closedly related to the density of alive-snails.

[Application of "time series analysis" in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in areas of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake areas, China].

OBJECTIVE: To provide the fittest model for forecasting schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake areas by comparing the results of Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Autoregressive Model and Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model) from 1990 to 2002. METHODS: Error sum of square of four statistical methods was compared and the fittest model was chosen. RESULTS: Error sum of square of predicted schistosomiasis prevalence rates in Haokou village from 1994 to 2002 were 39.40, 39.86, 26.63, 22.54 respectively. CONCLUSION: ARIMA model seemed to be the fittest one in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake from 1990 to 2002.

Relationship between the transmission of schistosomiasis japonica and the construction of the Three Gorge Reservoir.

OBJECTIVE: To study the relationship between the changes of environment and the transmission of Schistosomiasis japonica after the construction of the Three Gorge Reservoir. METHODS: On the basis of the predictive data on changes of water level and sediment in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River after the dam construction provided by the Yangtze River Committee on Water Conservancy, corresponding data were collected and analyzed. In order to understand the effects of changes of water level and sediment on Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum, field surveys and ecologically intimated experiments were done. The prevalence status and factors related to transmission were investigated by epidemiology, medical geography and public health. RESULTS: Positive impact on control of schistosomiasis is that floods in the Yangtze River will occur less and will decrease the dispersal of snails and the chances of infection for humans and animals as well. Snail habitats' beach will be reduced in the flushed area along the Yangtze River. Exploitation of beach and elimination of snails will benefit from the beach's uplift in flushed area. The floods ahead of time in autumn will interfere with the development of snails. Negative impact is that the flushed beaches and migratory settlements at certain altitude may become snail habitats. So the reservoir area will be a potential transmission area of schistosomiasis due to dispersal of infectious resources and Oncomelania snails. The uprising of the water body level may cause the expending of the snail habitats in some places of Jianghan plain during the transition of spring to summer. The destruction of the embankments of the Dongting Lake will be put off by its delayed flush, which causes the beach in a situation of growing reed-grass or grass for a long time that benefits the reproduction of the snails. The chances for schistosome infection to humans and animals will be on the increase, because the water regression occurs ahead of time in the Dongting Lake beach in autumn. The distribution of snails will not be affected by the changes of water level in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River after the dam is built, but the flushed section in Anhui in the recent 80 years are suitable for the snails' development. The environmental changes due to dam construction will not obviously affect the development of snails and the transmission of schistosomiasis in the Poyang Lake area. CONCLUSION: The construction of the huge dam and the formation of the Three Gorge Reservoir on the Yangtze River may have both positive and negative impact on schistosomiasis transmission and control. Great effort must be made to decrease the negative impact to avoid or, at least, to decrease S. japonicum transmission.