Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: A microsimulation model.

Despite being the most cost-effective tobacco control policy, tobacco taxation is the least implemented of the WHO MPOWER package to reduce smoking worldwide. In Mexico, both smoking prevalence and taxation have remained stable for more than a decade. This study aims to provide evidence about the potential effects of taxation to reduce the burden of tobacco-related diseases and the main attributable social costs in Mexico, including informal (unpaid) care costs, which are frequently ignored. We employ a first-order Monte Carlo microsimulation model that follows hypothetical population cohorts considering the risks of an adverse health event and death. First, we estimate tobacco-attributable morbidity and mortality, direct medical costs, and indirect costs, such as labour productivity losses and informal care costs. Then, we assess the potential effects of a 50% cigarette price increase through taxation and two alternative scenarios of 25% and 75%. The inputs come from several sources, including national surveys and vital statistics. Each year, 63,000 premature deaths and 427,000 disease events are attributable to tobacco in Mexico, while social costs amount to MX$194.6 billion (US$8.5) -MX$116.2 (US$5.1) direct medical costs and MX$78.5 (US$3.4) indirect costs-, representing 0.8% of GDP. Current tobacco tax revenue barely covers 23.3% of these costs. Increasing cigarette prices through taxation by 50% could reduce premature deaths by 49,000 over the next decade, while direct and indirect costs averted would amount to MX$87.9 billion (US$3.8) and MX$67.6 billion (US$2.9), respectively. The benefits would far outweigh any potential loss even in a pessimistic scenario of increased illicit trade. Tobacco use imposes high social costs on the Mexican population, but tobacco taxation is a win-win policy both for gaining population health as well as reducing tobacco societal costs.

Health and economic burden of sugar-sweetened beverages consumption in Brazil.

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugar and are associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity and diabetes. This study assessed the impact of SSBs consumption on disease burden in Brazil, including deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthcare costs. A 3-stage methodology was used to assess the direct effects of SSBs on diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and body mass index (BMI), along with the influence of BMI on disease incidence. These assessments were then used to estimate the economic and health burden using population-attributable factors. Results showed that 2.7% and 11% of adult and children overweight/obesity cases were attributable to SSBs, respectively. SSBs consumption in Brazil led to 1,814,486 cases, 12,942 deaths, 362,088 DALYs, and USD 2,915.91 million in medical costs related to diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, oncological diseases, and other NCDs. Urgent implementation of public policies is crucial to address the consumption of SSBs, recognized as a key risk factor for NCDs.

The burden of disease and economic impact of sugar-sweetened beverages' consumption in Argentina: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Approximately two-thirds of Argentine adults are overweight or obese, and 11% have diabetes. Over the last two decades, all population groups have increased their consumption of ultra-processed foods and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). We aimed to estimate the disease burden-deaths, events, and costs to the health system-attributed to SSB consumption in Argentina. METHODS: We used a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the health and economic impacts that would be avoided in a scenario without sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption. We calculated the direct effects on diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and BMI, and then estimated the effects of BMI on disease incidence. Finally, we applied the population attributable factor to calculate the health and economic burden avoided in Argentina in 2020. RESULTS: Our model estimated that about 4,425 deaths, 110,000 healthy life years lost to premature death and disability, more than 520,000 cases of overweight and obesity in adults, and 774,000 in children and adolescents would be attributed to SSB Consumption in Argentina. This disease burden corresponds to 23% of type-2 diabetes cases and other significant proportions of cardiovascular disease and cancer. The overweight and obesity costs attributable to SSB totaled approximately $47 million in adults and $15 million in children and adolescents. CONCLUSION: A significant number of disease cases, deaths, and health care costs could be attributed to SSB consumption in Argentina. Implementing measures to reduce the sugar content in beverages is a pending debt for the country and could lead to measurable improvements in population health, especially among children and adolescents.

Health and economic burden of sugar-sweetened beverages consumption in Brazil / Carga sanitaria y económica del consumo de bebidas azucaradas en Brasil / Carga sanitária e econômica do consumo de bebidas açucaradas no Brasil

Abstract: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugar and are associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity and diabetes. This study assessed the impact of SSBs consumption on disease burden in Brazil, including deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthcare costs. A 3-stage methodology was used to assess the direct effects of SSBs on diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and body mass index (BMI), along with the influence of BMI on disease incidence. These assessments were then used to estimate the economic and health burden using population-attributable factors. Results showed that 2.7% and 11% of adult and children overweight/obesity cases were attributable to SSBs, respectively. SSBs consumption in Brazil led to 1,814,486 cases, 12,942 deaths, 362,088 DALYs, and USD 2,915.91 million in medical costs related to diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, oncological diseases, and other NCDs. Urgent implementation of public policies is crucial to address the consumption of SSBs, recognized as a key risk factor for NCDs.

Resumen: Las bebidas azucaradas (BA) tienen una gran fuente de azúcar añadido y están asociadas con enfermedades no transmisibles (ENT), como la obesidad y la diabetes. Este estudio evaluó el impacto del consumo de las BA en la carga de enfermedad en Brasil, incluidas las muertes, los años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (AVAD) y los costos con la salud. Con el uso de una metodología de tres etapas, se evaluaron los efectos directos de las BA sobre la diabetes, las enfermedades cardiovasculares y el índice de masa corporal (IMC), la influencia del IMC en la incidencia de la enfermedad, y se estimó la carga económica y de salud utilizando los factores atribuibles a la población. Los resultados mostraron que el 2,7% de los casos de sobrepeso/obesidad en adultos y del 11% en niños fueron atribuibles a las BA. El consumo de las BA en Brasil generó 1.814.486 casos, 12.942 muertes, 362.088 AVAD y USD 2.915,91 millones en costos médicos relacionados con diabetes, enfermedades cardiovasculares, enfermedades oncológicas y otras ENT. Es necesario implementar políticas públicas para tratar el consumo de las BA, reconocido este como un factor de riesgo clave para las ENT.

Resumo: As bebidas açucaradas (BAs) são uma grande fonte de açúcar adicionado e estão associadas a doenças não transmissíveis (DNTs), como obesidade e diabetes. Este estudo avaliou o impacto do consumo de BAs sobre a carga de doenças no Brasil, incluindo óbitos, anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade (AVPIs) e custos de saúde. Usando uma metodologia de três estágios, examinamos os efeitos diretos das BAs sobre diabetes, doenças cardiovasculares e índice de massa corporal (IMC), a influência do IMC na incidência de doenças e estimamos o carga econômica e de saúde usando fatores atribuíveis à população. Os resultados mostraram que 2,7% dos casos de sobrepeso/obesidade em adultos e 11% em crianças foram atribuíveis a BAs. O consumo de BAs no Brasil levou a 1.814.486 casos, 12.942 mortes, 362.088 AVPIs e USD 2.915,91 milhões em custos médicos relacionados a diabetes, doenças cardiovasculares, doenças oncológicas e outras DNT. A implementação urgente de políticas públicas é crucial para enfrentar o consumo de BAs, reconhecido como um fator de risco fundamental para as DNT.

Comparison of central venous minus arterial carbon dioxide pressure to arterial minus central venous oxygen content ratio and lactate levels as predictors of mortality in critically ill patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis. / Comparação da proporção entre pressão venosa central menos arterial de dióxido de carbono e conteúdo de oxigênio arterial menos venoso central e níveis de lactato como preditores de mortalidade em pacientes críticos: uma revisão sistemática e metanálise.

OBJECTIVE: The central venousarterial carbon dioxide pressure to arterial-central venous oxygen content ratio (Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2) is frequently used as a surrogate for tissue oxygenation. We aimed to identify and synthesize literature and quality of evidence supporting Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 as a predictor of mortality in critically ill patients compared with lactate. METHODS: We searched several databases for studies measuring Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 in critically ill patients. Independent investigators performed the article screening and data extraction. A random-effects metaanalysis was performed. Pooled standardized mean differences (SMD) were used to compare the prognostic ability of Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 and lactate. RESULTS: We initially retrieved 172 studies; 17 were included for qualitative description, and 10 were included for quantitative synthesis. The mean Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 was higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors (pooled SMD = 0.75; 95%CI 0.34 - 1.17; I2 = 83%), as was the case with lactate levels (pooled SMD = 0.94; 95%CI 0.34 - 1.54; I2 = 92%). Both tests were statistically significant predictors of mortality, albeit with overlapping 95%CIs between them. CONCLUSION: Moderate-quality evidence showed little or no difference in the ability of Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2, compared with lactate, to predict mortality. Nevertheless, our conclusions are limited by the considerable heterogeneity among the studies.PROSPERO registration: CRD42019130387.

OBJETIVO: A proporção entre pressão venosa central menos arterial de dióxido de carbono e conteúdo de oxigênio arterial menos venoso central (Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2) é frequentemente usada como substituta para a oxigenação tecidual. O objetivo deste estudo foi identificar e sintetizar a literatura e a qualidade das evidências que suportam a Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 como um preditor de mortalidade em comparação com o lactato em pacientes críticos. MÉTODOS: Pesquisamos vários bancos de dados procurando estudos que tivessem medido a Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 em pacientes críticos. Pesquisadores independentes realizaram a triagem dos artigos e a extração de dados. Uma metanálise de efeitos aleatórios foi realizada. Diferenças médias padronizadas agrupadas foram usadas para comparar a capacidade prognóstica da Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 e do lactato. RESULTADOS: Inicialmente, obtivemos 172 estudos; 17 foram incluídos para descrição qualitativa, e dez foram incluídos para síntese quantitativa. A média de Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 foi maior nos não sobreviventes do que nos sobreviventes (diferença média padronizada agrupada de 0,75; IC95% 0,34 - 1,17; I2 = 83%), assim como os níveis de lactato (diferença média padronizada agrupada = 0,94; IC95% 0,34 - 1,54; I2 = 92%). Ambos os testes foram preditores estatisticamente significativos de mortalidade, embora com sobreposição de IC95% entre eles. CONCLUSÃO: Evidências de qualidade moderada mostraram pouca ou nenhuma diferença na capacidade da Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2, em comparação com o lactato, em predizer mortalidade. No entanto, nossas conclusões são limitadas pela considerável heterogeneidade entre os estudos.Registro no PROSPERO: CRD42019130387.

Comparação da proporção entre pressão venosa central menos arterial de dióxido de carbono e conteúdo de oxigênio arterial menos venoso central e níveis de lactato como preditores de mortalidade em pacientes críticos: uma revisão sistemática e metanálise / Comparison of central venous minus arterial carbon dioxide pressure to arterial minus central venous oxygen content ratio and lactate levels as predictors of mortality in critically ill patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

RESUMO Objetivo: A proporção entre pressão venosa central menos arterial de dióxido de carbono e conteúdo de oxigênio arterial menos venoso central (Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2) é frequentemente usada como substituta para a oxigenação tecidual. O objetivo deste estudo foi identificar e sintetizar a literatura e a qualidade das evidências que suportam a Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 como um preditor de mortalidade em comparação com o lactato em pacientes críticos. Métodos: Pesquisamos vários bancos de dados procurando estudos que tivessem medido a Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 em pacientes críticos. Pesquisadores independentes realizaram a triagem dos artigos e a extração de dados. Uma metanálise de efeitos aleatórios foi realizada. Diferenças médias padronizadas agrupadas foram usadas para comparar a capacidade prognóstica da Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 e do lactato. Resultados: Inicialmente, obtivemos 172 estudos; 17 foram incluídos para descrição qualitativa, e dez foram incluídos para síntese quantitativa. A média de Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 foi maior nos não sobreviventes do que nos sobreviventes (diferença média padronizada agrupada de 0,75; IC95% 0,34 - 1,17; I2 = 83%), assim como os níveis de lactato (diferença média padronizada agrupada = 0,94; IC95% 0,34 - 1,54; I2 = 92%). Ambos os testes foram preditores estatisticamente significativos de mortalidade, embora com sobreposição de IC95% entre eles. Conclusão: Evidências de qualidade moderada mostraram pouca ou nenhuma diferença na capacidade da Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2, em comparação com o lactato, em predizer mortalidade. No entanto, nossas conclusões são limitadas pela considerável heterogeneidade entre os estudos. Registro no PROSPERO:CRD42019130387

ABSTRACT Objective: The central venousarterial carbon dioxide pressure to arterial-central venous oxygen content ratio (Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2) is frequently used as a surrogate for tissue oxygenation. We aimed to identify and synthesize literature and quality of evidence supporting Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 as a predictor of mortality in critically ill patients compared with lactate. Methods: We searched several databases for studies measuring Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 in critically ill patients. Independent investigators performed the article screening and data extraction. A random-effects metaanalysis was performed. Pooled standardized mean differences (SMD) were used to compare the prognostic ability of Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 and lactate. Results: We initially retrieved 172 studies; 17 were included for qualitative description, and 10 were included for quantitative synthesis. The mean Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2 was higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors (pooled SMD = 0.75; 95%CI 0.34 - 1.17; I2 = 83%), as was the case with lactate levels (pooled SMD = 0.94; 95%CI 0.34 - 1.54; I2 = 92%). Both tests were statistically significant predictors of mortality, albeit with overlapping 95%CIs between them. Conclusion: Moderate-quality evidence showed little or no difference in the ability of Pcv-aCO2/Ca-cvO2, compared with lactate, to predict mortality. Nevertheless, our conclusions are limited by the considerable heterogeneity among the studies. PROSPERO registration:CRD42019130387

Maternal and neonatal data collection systems in low- and middle-income countries for maternal vaccines active safety surveillance systems: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Most post-licensure vaccine pharmacovigilance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are passive reporting systems. These have limited utility for maternal immunization pharmacovigilance in LMIC settings and need to be supplemented with active surveillance. Our study's main objective was to identify existing perinatal data collection systems in LMICs that collect individual information on maternal and neonatal health outcomes and could be developed to inform active safety surveillance of novel vaccines for use during pregnancy. METHODS: A scoping review was performed following the Arksey and O'Malley six-stage approach. We included studies describing electronic or mixed paper-electronic data collection systems in LMICs, including research networks, electronic medical records, and custom software platforms for health information systems. Medline PubMed, EMBASE, Global Health, Cochrane Library, LILACS, Bibliography of Asian Studies (BAS), and CINAHL were searched through August 2019. We also searched grey literature including through Google and websites of existing relevant perinatal data collection systems, as well as contacted authors of key studies and experts in the field to validate the information and identify additional sources of relevant unpublished information. RESULTS: A total of 11,817 records were identified. The full texts of 264 records describing 96 data collection systems were assessed for eligibility. Eight perinatal data collection systems met our inclusion criteria: Global Network's Maternal Newborn Health Registry, International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health; Perinatal Informatic System; Pregnancy Exposure Registry & Birth Defects Surveillance; SmartCare; Open Medical Record System; Open Smart Register Platform and District Health Information Software 2. These selected systems were qualitatively characterized according to seven different domains: governance; system design; system management; data management; data sources, outcomes and data quality. CONCLUSION: This review provides a list of active maternal and neonatal data collection systems in LMICs and their characteristics as well as their outreach, strengths, and limitations. Findings could potentially help further understand where to obtain population-based high-quality information on outcomes to inform the conduct of maternal immunization active vaccine safety surveillance activities and research in LMICs.