Sources of nitrous oxide emissions from agriculturally managed peatlands.

The draining and fertilization of peatlands for agriculture is globally an important source of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2 O). Hitherto, the contribution of major sources to the N2 O emission-that is, fertilization and nitrogen (N) release from peat decomposition-has not yet been deciphered. This hampers the development of smart mitigation strategies, considering that rewetting to halt peat decomposition and reducing N fertilization are promising N2 O emission-reduction strategies. Here, we used machine learning techniques and global N2 O observational data to generalize the distribution of N2 O emissions from agriculturally managed peatlands, to distinguish the sources of N2 O emissions, and to compare mitigation options. N2 O emissions from agriculturally managed croplands were 401.0 (344.5-470.9) kt N year-1 , with 121.6 (88.6-163.3) kt N year-1 contributed by fertilizer N. On grasslands, 64.0 (54.6-74.7) kt N2 O-N year-1 were emitted, with 4.6 (3.7-5.7) kt N2 O-N year-1 stemming from fertilizer N. The fertilizer-induced N2 O emission factor ranged from 1.5% to 3.2%. Reducing the current fertilizer input by 20% could achieve a 10% N2 O emission reduction for croplands but only 3% for grasslands. Rewetting 1.9 Mha cropland and 0.26 Mha grassland would achieve the same N2 O emission reductions. Our results suggest that N2 O mitigation strategies for managed peatlands should be considered separately across land-use types and climatic zones. For croplands, particularly in the tropics, relevant N2 O mitigation potentials are achievable through both fertilizer N reduction and peatland rewetting. For grasslands, management schemes to halt peat degradation (e.g. rewetting) should be considered preferentially for mitigating N2 O and contributing to meeting climate goals.

N2O emission factors for cattle urine: effect of patch characteristics and environmental drivers.

Urine patches from grazing cattle are hotspots of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. The default IPCC emission factor for urine patches (EFurine) is 0.77% for wet climates and 0.32% for dry climates. However, literature reports a considerable range of cattle urine EF values and urine characteristics used in experimental studies, revealing contrary results on the effects of urine patch characteristics and seasonal pattern. Therefore, we examined N2O emissions and corresponding EFurine values in relation to urine patch characteristics (urine N concentration, urine volume, patch area, urine composition) and environmental drivers (precipitation, water filled pore space, soil temperature). Ten artificial urine application experiments were performed from July 2020 to June 2022 on a pasture located in Eastern Switzerland. Urine N concentration, patch area, volume and urine N composition showed no significant effects on the EFurine value (p > 0.05). EFurine varied, however, strongly over time (0.17-2.05%). A large part of the variation could be predicted either by cumulative precipitation 20 days after urine application using a second order polynomial model (Adj. R2 = 0.60) or average WFPS 30 days after urine application using a linear model (Adj. R2 = 0.45). The derived precipitation model was used to simulate EFurine weekly over the last 20 years showing no significant differences between the seasons of a year. The resulting overall average EFurine was 0.67%. More field studies are needed across sites/regions differing in climate and soil properties to implement a country-specific EF3 for Switzerland and to improve the quantification of N2O emissions at the national scales.

Dynamic simulation of management events for assessing impacts of climate change on pre-alpine grassland productivity.

The productivity of permanent temperate cut grasslands is mainly driven by weather, soil characteristics, botanical composition and management. To adapt management to climate change, adjusting the cutting dates to reflect earlier onset of growth and expansion of the vegetation period is particularly important. Simulations of cut grassland productivity under climate change scenarios demands management settings to be dynamically derived from actual plant development rather than using static values derived from current management operations. This is even more important in the alpine region, where the predicted temperature increase is twice as high as compared to the global or Northern Hemispheric average. For this purpose, we developed a dynamic management module that provides timing of cutting and manuring events when running the biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. We derived the dynamic management rules from long-term harvest measurements and monitoring data collected at pre-alpine grassland sites located in S-Germany and belonging to the TERENO monitoring network. We applied the management module for simulations of two grassland sites covering the period 2011-2100 and driven by scenarios that reflect the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 and evaluated yield developments of different management regimes. The management module was able to represent timing of current management operations in high agreement with several years of field observations (r² > 0.88). Even more, the shift of the first cutting dates scaled to a +1 °C temperature increase simulated with the climate change scenarios (-9.1 to -17.1 days) compared well to the shift recorded by the German Weather Service (DWD) in the study area from 1991-2016 (-9.4 to -14.0 days). In total, the shift in cutting dates and expansion of the growing season resulted in 1-2 additional cuts per year until 2100. Thereby, climate change increased yields of up to 6 % and 15 % in the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios with highest increases mainly found for dynamically adapted grassland management going along with increasing fertilization rates. In contrast, no or only minor yield increases were associated with simulations restricted to fertilization rates of 170 kg N ha-1 yr-1 as required by national legislations. Our study also shows that yields significantly decreased in drought years, when soil moisture is limiting plant growth but due to comparable high precipitation and water holding capacity of soils, this was observed mainly in the RCP 8.5 scenario in the last decades of the century.

Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors Shape Major Bacterial Community Types Across the Complex Mountain Landscape of Switzerland.

Mountain areas harbor large climatic and geographic gradients and form numerous habitats that promote high overall biodiversity. Compared to macroorganisms, knowledge about drivers of biodiversity and distribution of soil bacteria in mountain regions is still scarce but a prerequisite for conservation of bacterial functions in soils. An important question is, whether soil bacterial communities with similar structures share environmental preferences. Using metabarcoding of the 16S rRNA gene marker, we assessed soil bacterial communities at 255 sites of a regular grid covering the mountainous landscape of Switzerland, which is characterized by close location of biogeographic regions that harbor different land-use types. Distribution of bacterial communities was mainly shaped by environmental selection, as revealed by 47.9% variance explained by environmental factors, with pH (29%) being most important. Little additional variance was explained by biogeographic regions (2.8%) and land-use types (3.3%). Cluster analysis of bacterial community structures revealed six bacterial community types (BCTs), which were associated to several biogeographic regions and land-use types but overall differed mainly in their preference for soil pH. BCT I and II occurred at neutral pH, showed distinct preferences for biogeographic regions mainly differing in elevation and nutrient availability. BCT III and IV differed only in their preferred soil pH. BCT VI occurred in most acidic soils (pH 3.6) and almost exclusively at forest sites. BCT V occurred in soils with a mean pH of 4 and differed from BCT VI in preference for lower values of organic C, total nitrogen and their ratio. Indicator species and bipartite network analyses revealed 3,998 OTUs associating to different levels of environmental factors and BCTs. Taxonomic classification revealed opposing associations of taxa deriving from the same phyla. The results revealed that pH, land-use type, biogeographic region, and nutrient availability were the main factors shaping bacterial communities across Switzerland. Indicator species and bipartite network analyses revealed environmental preferences of bacterial taxa. Combining information of environmental factors and BCTs yielded increased resolution of the factors shaping soil bacterial communities and provided an improved biodiversity framework. OTUs exclusively associated to BCTs provide a novel resource to identify unassessed environmental drivers.

Inflection point in climatic suitability of insect pest species in Europe suggests non-linear responses to climate change.

Climate change and globalization affect the suitable conditions for agricultural crops and insect pests, threatening future food security. It remains unknown whether shifts in species' climatic suitability will be linear or rather non-linear, with crop exposure to pests suddenly increasing when a critical temperature threshold is crossed. Moreover, uncertainty of forecasts can arise because of the modelling approach based either on species distribution data or on physiological measurements. Here, we compared the predictions of two modelling approaches (physiological models and species distribution models) for forecasting the potential distribution of agricultural insect pests in Europe. Despite conceptual differences, we found good agreement overall between the two approaches. We further identified a potential regime change in pest pressure along a temperature gradient. With both modelling approaches, we found an inflection point in the number of pest species with suitable climatic conditions around a minimum temperature of the coldest month of -3°C. Our results could help decision-makers anticipate the onset of rising pest pressure and provide support for intensifying surveillance measures, particularly in regions where temperatures are already beyond the inflection point.

Crop and forest pest metawebs shift towards increased linkage and suitability overlap under climate change.

Global changes pose both risks and opportunities to agriculture and forestry, and biological forecasts can inform future management strategies. Here, we investigate potential land-use opportunities arising from climate change for these sectors in Europe, and risks associated with the introduction and establishment of novel insect pests. Adopting a metaweb approach including all interaction links between 126 crops and forest tree species and 89 black-listed insect pest species, we show that the metawebs shift toward increased numbers of links and overlap of suitable area under climate change. Decomposing the metaweb across regions shows large saturation in southern Europe, while many novel interactions are expected for northern Europe. In light of the rising consumer awareness about human health and environmental impacts of food and wood production, the challenge will be to effectively exploit new opportunities to create diverse local agriculture and forestry while controlling pest species and reducing risks from pesticide use.

Generic calibration of a simple model of diurnal temperature variations for spatial analysis of accumulated degree-days.

Accumulated growing degree-days (aGDD) are widely used to predict phenological stages of plants and insects. It has been shown in the past that the best predictive performance is obtained when aGDD are computed from hourly temperature data. As the latter are not always available, models of diurnal temperature changes are often employed to retrieve the required information from data of daily minimum and maximum temperatures. In this study, we examine the performance of a well-known model of hourly temperature variations in the context of a spatial assessment of aGDD. Specifically, we examine whether a generic calibration of such a temperature model is sufficient to infer in a reliable way spatial patterns of key phenological stages across the complex territory of Switzerland. Temperature data of a relatively small number of meteorological stations is used to obtain a generic model parameterization, which is first compared with site-specific calibrations. We show that, at the local scale, the predictive skill of the generic model does not significantly differ from that of the site-specific models. We then show that for aGDD up to 800 °C d (on a base temperature of 10 °C), phenological dates predicted with aGDD obtained from estimated hourly temperature data are within ± 3 days of dates estimated on the basis of observed hourly temperatures. This suggests the generic calibration of hourly temperature models is indeed a valid approach for pre-processing temperature data in regional studies of insect and plant phenology.

Impact of climate change on voltinism and prospective diapause induction of a global pest insect--Cydia pomonella (L.).

Global warming will lead to earlier beginnings and prolongation of growing seasons in temperate regions and will have pronounced effects on phenology and life-history adaptation in many species. These changes were not easy to simulate for actual phenologies because of the rudimentary temporal (season) and spatial (regional) resolution of climate model projections. We investigate the effect of climate change on the regional incidence of a pest insect with nearly worldwide distribution and very high potential for adaptation to season length and temperature--the Codling Moth, Cydia pomonella. Seasonal and regional climate change signals were downscaled to the hourly temporal scale of a pest phenology model and the spatial scale of pest habitats using a stochastic weather generator operating at daily scale in combination with a re-sampling approach for simulation of hourly weather data. Under future conditions of increased temperatures (2045-2074), the present risk of below 20% for a pronounced second generation (peak larval emergence) in Switzerland will increase to 70-100%. The risk of an additional third generation will increase from presently 0-2% to 100%. We identified a significant two-week shift to earlier dates in phenological stages, such as overwintering adult flight. The relative extent (magnitude) of first generation pupae and all later stages will significantly increase. The presence of first generation pupae and later stages will be prolonged. A significant decrease in the length of overlap of first and second generation larval emergence was identified. Such shifts in phenology may induce changes in life-history traits regulating the life cycle. An accordingly life-history adaptation in photoperiodic diapause induction to shorter day-length is expected and would thereby even more increase the risk of an additional generation. With respect to Codling Moth management, the shifts in phenology and voltinism projected here will require adaptations of plant protection strategies to maintain their sustainability.

Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture: results of inventory analysis in COST 734 countries.

Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture because of to its influence on production. All processes are regulated by specific climatic requirements. Furthermore, European agriculture, based on highly developed farming techniques, is mainly oriented to high quality food production that is more susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions; and risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture. The work will be carried out by respective Working Groups. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the first phase of inventory activity. Specific questionnaires were disseminated among COST 734 countries to collect information on climate change analysis, studies, and impact at the European level. The results were discussed with respect to their spatial distribution in Europe and to identify possible common long- and short-term strategies for adaptation.