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PURPOSE: This paper proposes a methodology and a computational tool to study the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world and to perform a trend analysis to assess its local dynamics. METHODS: Mathematical functions are employed to describe the number of cases and demises in each region and to predict their final numbers, as well as the dates of maximum daily occurrences and the local stabilization date. The model parameters are calibrated using a computational methodology for numerical optimization. Trend analyses are run, allowing to assess the effects of public policies. Easy to interpret metrics over the quality of the fitted curves are provided. Country-wise data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) concerning the daily number of cases and demises around the world are used, as well as detailed data from Johns Hopkins University and from the Brasil.io project describing individually the occurrences in United States counties and in Brazilian states and cities, respectively. U. S. and Brazil were chosen for a more detailed analysis because they are the current focus of the pandemic. RESULTS: Illustrative results for different countries, U. S. counties and Brazilian states and cities are presented and discussed. CONCLUSION: The main contributions of this work lie in (i) a straightforward model of the curves to represent the data, which allows automation of the process without requiring interventions from experts; (ii) an innovative approach for trend analysis, whose results provide important information to support authorities in their decision-making process; and (iii) the developed computational tool, which is freely available and allows the user to quickly update the COVID-19 analyses and forecasts for any country, United States county or Brazilian state or city present in the periodic reports from the authorities.
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ABSTRACT BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Opioids are drugs used to relieve pain, but may cause increased pain sensitivity, known as opioid-induced hyperalgesia, which adversely affects pain management. This study aimed to check if fentanyl, an opioid widely used in the clinical practice, produces hyperalgesia that can be attenuated by duloxetine, fluoxetine and pregabalin. METHODS: Thirty male Wistar rats were divided into six groups. The animals in group 1 received 1mL of 0.9% saline solution intraperitoneally (IP) and gavage; group 2 received fentanyl at a dose of 100µg.kg-1 IP and 0.9% saline solution per gavage; groups 3, 4 and 5 received fentanyl at the dose of 100µg.kg-1 IP, and gavage with duloxetine, 40mg.kg-1, fluoxetine, 40mg.kg-1 and pregabalin, 40mg.kg-1, respectively. Under general anesthesia with isoflurane, all animals were submitted to plantar surgical incision. The application of Von Frey filaments assessed hyperalgesia at the second hour, one, three, five and seven days after treatment. RESULTS: Two hours after the procedure, no differences were observed between G1 and G2, although G3, G4, and G5 showed less hyperalgesia. On day one and day three, a greater hyperalgesic effect was observed in G2 when compared to G1, G3, G4 and G5. On day five, there was a hyperalgesic effect on G2, and on day seven, there were no differences among the groups. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that fentanyl induces hyperalgesia and the efficacy of duloxetine, fluoxetine, and pregabalin in reducing it.
RESUMO JUSTIFICATIVA E OBJETIVOS: Opioides são fármacos utilizados para o alívio da dor, porém, podem causar aumento da sensibilidade dolorosa, denominada hiperalgesia induzida por opioides, que afeta negativamente o tratamento da dor. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar se o fentanil, opioide amplamente utilizado na prática clínica, produz hiperalgesia que pode ser atenuada pela duloxetina, fluoxetina e pregabalina. MÉTODOS: Trinta ratos Wistar machos, foram divididos em 6 grupos. No grupo 1, os animais receberam 1mL de solução fisiológica (SF) a 0,9% por via intraperitoneal (IP) e por gavagem; no grupo 2, fentanil na dose de 100µg.kg-1 IP e SF a 0,9% por gavagem; nos grupos 3, 4 e 5 os animais receberam fentanil na dose de 100µg.kg-1 IP e, por gavagem, receberam respectivamente duloxetina, 40mg.kg-1, fluoxetina, 40mg.kg-1 e pregabalina, 40mg.kg-1. A avaliação da hiperalgesia e sua atenuação foi feita pela aplicação de filamentos de Von Frey, na 2ª hora e nos dias 1, 3, 5 e 7, após o tratamento. RESULTADOS: Na 2ª hora pós-procedimento não foram observadas diferenças entre G1 e G2, entretanto, G3, G4 e G5 se mostraram com menor hiperalgesia. No 1º e 3º dias foi observado maior efeito hiperalgésico em G2 quando comparado com G1, G3, G4 e G5. No 5º dia foi observado efeito hiperalgésico no G2, e no 7º dia não houve diferenças entre os grupos. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados sugerem que o fentanil induz hiperalgesia e eficácia da duloxetina, fluoxetina e pregabalina na sua redução.