Estimating disability-adjusted life years for breast cancer and the impact of screening in female populations in China, 2015-2030: an exploratory prevalence-based analysis applying local weights.

BACKGROUND: Most cancer disability-adjusted life year (DALY) studies worldwide have used broad, generic disability weights (DWs); however, differences exist among populations and types of cancers. Using breast cancer as example, this study aimed to estimate the population-level DALYs in females in China and the impact of screening as well as applying local DWs. METHODS: Using multisource data, a prevalence-based model was constructed. (1) Overall years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated by using numbers of prevalence cases, stage-specific proportions, and local DWs for breast cancer. Numbers of females and new breast cancer cases as well as local survival rates were used to calculate the number of prevalence cases. (2) Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated using breast cancer mortality rates, female numbers and standard life expectancies. (3) The prevalence of and mortality due to breast cancer and associated DALYs from 2020 to 2030 were predicted using Joinpoint regression. (4) Assumptions considered for screening predictions included expanding coverage, reducing mortality due to breast cancer and improving early-stage proportion for breast cancer. RESULTS: In Chinese females, the estimated number of breast cancer DALYs was 2251.5 thousand (of 17.3% were YLDs) in 2015, which is predicted to increase by 26.7% (60.3% among those aged ≥ 65 years) in 2030 (2852.8 thousand) if the screening coverage (25.7%) stays unchanged. However, if the coverage can be achieved to 40.7% in 2030 (deduced from the "Healthy China Initiative"), DALYs would decrease by 1.5% among the screened age groups. Sensitivity analyses found that using local DWs would change the base-case values by ~ 10%. CONCLUSION: Estimates of DALYs due to breast cancer in China were lower (with a higher proportion of YLDs) than Global Burden of Disease Study numbers (2527.0 thousand, 8.2% were YLDs), suggesting the importance of the application of population-specific DWs. If the screening coverage remains unchanged, breast cancer-caused DALYs would continue to increase, especially among elderly individuals.

The population-level economic burden of liver cancer in China, 2019-2030: prevalence-based estimations from a societal perspective.

BACKGROUND: Benchmark data on the population-level economic burden are critical to inform policymakers about liver cancer control. However, comprehensive data in China are currently limited. METHODS: A prevalence-based approach from a societal perspective was used to quantify the annual economic burden of liver cancer in China from 2019 to 2030. Detailed per-case data on medical/non-medical expenditure and work-loss days were extracted from a multicenter survey. The numbers/rates of new/prevalent cases and deaths, survival, and population-related parameters were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 and the literature. All expenditure data were reported in both 2019 Chinese Yuan (CNY) and United States dollar (US$, for main estimations). RESULT: The overall economic burden of liver cancer was estimated at CNY76.7/US$11.1 billion in China in 2019 (0.047% of the local GDP). The direct expenditure was CNY21.6/US$3.1 billion, including CNY19.7/US$2.9 billion for medical expenditure and CNY1.9/US$0.3 billion for non-medical expenditure. The indirect cost was CNY55.1/US$8.0 billion (71.8% of the overall burden), including CNY3.0/US$0.4 billion due to disability and CNY52.0/US$7.5 billion due to premature death. The total burden would increase to CNY84.2/US$12.2 billion, CNY141.7/US$20.5 billion, and CNY234.3/US$34.0 billion in 2020, 2025, and 2030, accounting for 0.102%, 0.138%, and 0.192% of China's GDP, respectively. However, if China achieves the goals of Healthy China 2030 or the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals for non-communicable diseases, the burden in 2030 would be < CNY144.4/US$20.9 billion. CONCLUSIONS: The population-level economic burden of liver cancer in China is currently substantial and will consistently increase in the future. Sustainable efforts in primary and secondary interventions for liver cancer need to be further strengthened.