International Comparisons of Harmonized Laboratory Value Trajectories to Predict Severe COVID-19: Leveraging the 4CE Collaborative Across 342 Hospitals and 6 Countries: A Retrospective Cohort Study

ObjectivesTo perform an international comparison of the trajectory of laboratory values among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who develop severe disease and identify optimal timing of laboratory value collection to predict severity across hospitals and regions. DesignRetrospective cohort study. SettingThe Consortium for Clinical Characterization of COVID-19 by EHR (4CE), an international multi-site data-sharing collaborative of 342 hospitals in the US and in Europe. ParticipantsPatients hospitalized with COVID-19, admitted before or after PCR-confirmed result for SARS-CoV-2. Primary and secondary outcome measuresPatients were categorized as "ever-severe" or "never-severe" using the validated 4CE severity criteria. Eighteen laboratory tests associated with poor COVID-19-related outcomes were evaluated for predictive accuracy by area under the curve (AUC), compared between the severity categories. Subgroup analysis was performed to validate a subset of laboratory values as predictive of severity against a published algorithm. A subset of laboratory values (CRP, albumin, LDH, neutrophil count, D-dimer, and procalcitonin) was compared between North American and European sites for severity prediction. ResultsOf 36,447 patients with COVID-19, 19,953 (43.7%) were categorized as ever-severe. Most patients (78.7%) were 50 years of age or older and male (60.5%). Longitudinal trajectories of CRP, albumin, LDH, neutrophil count, D-dimer, and procalcitonin showed association with disease severity. Significant differences of laboratory values at admission were found between the two groups. With the exception of D-dimer, predictive discrimination of laboratory values did not improve after admission. Sub-group analysis using age, D-dimer, CRP, and lymphocyte count as predictive of severity at admission showed similar discrimination to a published algorithm (AUC=0.88 and 0.91, respectively). Both models deteriorated in predictive accuracy as the disease progressed. On average, no difference in severity prediction was found between North American and European sites. ConclusionsLaboratory test values at admission can be used to predict severity in patients with COVID-19. Prediction models show consistency across international sites highlighting the potential generalizability of these models.

Characteristics, outcome and predictors of in-hospital mortality in an elderly population from a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a long-term care facility.

Since December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread from China all over the world, many COVID-19 outbreaks have been reported in long-term care facilities (LCTF). However, data on clinical characteristics and prognostic factors in such settings are scarce. We conducted a retrospective, observational cohort study to assess clinical characteristics and baseline predictors of mortality of COVID-19 patients hospitalized after an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a LTCF. A total of 50 patients were included. Mean age was 80 years (SD, 12 years), and 24/50 (57.1%) patients were males. A total of 42/50 (84%) patients experienced symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 32%. In Cox regression, significant predictors of in-hospital mortality were: hypernatremia (HR 9.12), lymphocyte count <1000 cells/{micro}L (HR 7.45), cardiovascular diseases other than hypertension (HR 6.41), and higher levels of serum interleukin-6 (IL-6, pg/mL) (HR 1.005). Our study shows a high in-hospital mortality rate in a cohort of elderly patients with COVID-19 and hypernatremia, lymphopenia, CVD other than hypertension, and higher IL-6 serum levels were identified as independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Further studies are necessary to better understand and confirm our findings in the setting of a LTCF outbreak of COVID-19.

Discussion on critical points for a tailored therapy to cure hepatitis C virus infection

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infects around 71 million people worldwide and in 2018 it is still a major health problem. Since 2011, anti-HCV therapy with availability of direct-acting antiviral drugs has revolutionized the clinical response and paved the way to eradication strategies. However, despite the high rate of sustained virological response, treatment failure may occur in a limited percentage of patients, possibly due to resistance-associated substitutions (RASs), either emergent or pre-existent even in minority viral populations. Clearly this problem may impair success of eradication strategies. With this background, several questions marks still exist around HCV treatment, including whether pan-genotypic treatments with complete effectiveness in any clinical conditions really exist outside clinical trials, the actual cost-effectiveness of genotyping testing, and utility of RAS detection in viral quasispecies by next generation sequencing approach. In this review, we describe these critical points by discussing recent literature data and our research experience.

Evolution of glomerular filtration rates and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin during treatment with direct acting antivirals

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Correct renal function evaluation is based on estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) and complementary renal damage biomarkers, such as neutrophil gelatinase associated lipocalin (NGAL). The aim of this study was to evaluate eGFR and NGAL modifications and renal impairment during treatment with a direct acting antiviral (DAA) for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study evaluated eGFR modification during treatment with DAA. Subgroup analysis on serum NGAL was conducted in those receiving sofosbuvir/ledipasvir, with complete follow-up until week 12 after the end of treatment (FU-12). RESULTS: In the 102 enrolled patients, eGFR reduction was observed (from 86.22 mL/min at baseline to 84.43 mL/min at FU-12, P=0.049). Mean NGAL increased in 18 patients (from 121.89 ng/mL at baseline to 204.13 ng/mL at FU-12, P=0.014). At FU-12, 38.8% (7/18) of patients had a plasmatic NGAL value higher than the normal range (36-203 ng/mL) compared with 11.1% (2/18) at baseline (χ2 =3,704; P=0.054). In contrast, eGFR did not change significantly over the follow-up in this subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, compared to a negligible eGFR decline observed in the entire cohort analyzed, a significant NGAL increase was observed after HCV treatment with DAA in a small subgroup. This could reflect tubular damage during DAA treatment rather than glomerular injury.

Protein and vitamin B6 intake are associated with liver steatosis assessed by transient elastography, especially in obese individuals

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Although the detrimental effects of several dietary components on the promotion of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease are well known, no studies have assessed the role of dietary vitamin B6. Moreover, studies on the associations between dietary components or body composition indices and liver steatosis assessed by transient elastography are rare. Our aim was to identify the nutritional factors and anthropometric parameters associated with liver steatosis. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we enrolled 168 individuals (35% obese) who underwent a liver steatosis assessment by Controlled Attenuation Parameter measurement and nutritional assessment. RESULTS: Tertiles of vitamin B6 intake were positively associated with hepatic steatosis (B=1.89, P=0.026, confidence interval [CI] 0.03-0.80) as well as with triglycerides, glucose, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and body mass index . In obese individuals, after multivariable analysis, the Controlled Attenuation Parameter score was still associated with triglycerides, ALT, and total protein intake (B=0.56, P=0.01, CI 0.10-1.02). Participants in tertile I (low intake) had a lower Controlled Attenuation Parameter than those in tertile III (P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: We found a positive association between hepatic steatosis or Controlled Attenuation Parameter score and vitamin B6/total protein intake, probably related to the high intake of meat. Vitamin B6 might have a pathogenic role related to the increase of hepatic steatosis.