Assessing alternative lake management actions for climate change adaptation.

Lake management actions are required to protect lake ecosystems that are being threatened by climate change. Freshwater lakes in semiarid regions are of upmost importance to their region. Simulations of the subtropical Lake Kinneret project that rising temperatures will cause change to phytoplankton species composition, including increased cyanobacteria blooms, endangering lake ecosystem services. Using lake ecosystem models, we examined several management actions under climate change, including two alternatives of desalinated water introduction into the lake, hypolimnetic water withdrawal, watershed management changes and low versus high lake water level. To account for prediction uncertainty, we utilized an ensemble of two 1D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical lake models along with 500 realizations of meteorological conditions. Results suggest that supplying desalinated water for local use, thus releasing more natural waters through the Jordan River, increasing nutrient flow, may reduce cyanobacteria blooms, mitigating climate change effects. However, these results are accompanied by considerable uncertainty.

Climate change impact on sub-tropical lakes - Lake Kinneret as a case study.

Climate change is anticipated to alter lake ecosystems by affecting water quality, potentially resulting in loss of ecosystem services. Subtropical lakes have high temperatures to begin with and are expected to exhibit higher temperatures all year round which might affect the thermal structure and ecological processes in a different manner than lakes in temperate zones. In this study the ecosystem response of the sub-tropical Lake Kinneret to climate change was explored using lake ecosystem models. Projection reliability was increased by using a weather generator and ensemble modelling, confronting uncertainty of both climate projections and lake models. The study included running two 1D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models over one thousand realizations of two gradual temperature increase scenarios that span over 49 years. Our predictions show that an increase in air temperature would have subtle effects on stratification properties but may result in considerable changes to biogeochemical processes. Water temperature rise would cause a reduction in dissolved oxygen. Both of these changes would produce elevated phosphate and lowered ammonium concentrations. In turn, these changes are predicted to modify the phytoplankton community, expressed chiefly in increased cyanobacteria blooms at the expense of green phytoplankton and dinoflagellates; these changes may culminate in overall reduction of primary production. Identification of these trends would not be possible without the use of many realizations of climate scenarios. The use of ensemble modelling increased prediction reliability and highlighted elements of uncertainty. Though we use Lake Kinneret, the patterns identified most likely indicate processes that are expected in sub-tropical lakes in general.

Human socio-cultural evolution in light of evolutionary transitions: introduction to the theme issue.

Human societies are no doubt complex. They are characterized by division of labour, multiple hierarchies, intricate communication networks and transport systems. These phenomena and others have led scholars to propose that human society may be, or may become, a new hierarchical level that may dominate the individual humans within it, similar to the relations between an organism and its cells, or an ant colony and its members. Recent discussions of the possibility of this major evolutionary transition in individuality (ETI) raise interesting and controversial questions that are explored in the present issue from four different complementary perspectives. (i) The general theory of ETIs. (ii) The unique aspects of cultural evolution. (iii) The evolutionary history and pre-history of humans. (iv) Specific routes of a possible human ETI. Each perspective uses different tools provided by different disciplines: biology, anthropology, cultural evolution, systems theory, psychology, economy, linguistics and philosophy of science. Altogether, this issue provides a broad and rich application of the notion of ETI to human past, present and perhaps also future evolution. It presents important case studies, new theoretical results and novel questions for future research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Human socio-cultural evolution in light of evolutionary transitions'.

Human societal development: is it an evolutionary transition in individuality?

An evolutionary transition in individuality (ETI) occurs when a previously independent organism becomes a lower level unit within a higher hierarchical level (for example, cells in an organism, ants in a colony). Using archaeological and historical accounts from the last 12 000 years, I empirically examine the proposition that human society increasingly functions as a higher hierarchical level within which individuals integrate as lower level units. I evaluate human societal development with respect to three criteria that together indicate complexity in biological systems and serve as an operationalization scheme for ETIs: size, inseparability and specialization. The size of the largest polity has increased seven orders of magnitude, from hundreds to billions. Inseparability became nearly complete since Mesopotamian city-states, following the first appearance of intricate specialization (division of labour). Connectivity within a polity has increased rapidly during the last few centuries, and particularly within the last few decades. In view of these results, I formulate the following hypothesis: human society is undergoing an evolutionary transition in individuality, driven by socio-cultural-technological processes. This proposition requires a detailed theoretical basis and further empirical testing. I propose four predictions derived from the hypothesis that may be used to test it. This article is part of the theme issue 'Human socio-cultural evolution in light of evolutionary transitions'.

Limited climate change mitigation potential through forestation of the vast dryland regions.

Forestation of the vast global drylands has been considered a promising climate change mitigation strategy. However, its actual climatic benefits are uncertain because the forests' reduced albedo can produce large warming effects. Using high-resolution spatial analysis of global drylands, we found 448 million hectares suitable for afforestation. This area's carbon sequestration potential until 2100 is 32.3 billion tons of carbon (Gt C), but 22.6 Gt C of that is required to balance albedo effects. The net carbon equivalent would offset ~1% of projected medium-emissions and business-as-usual scenarios over the same period. Focusing forestation only on areas with net cooling effects would use half the area and double the emissions offset. Although such smart forestation is clearly important, its limited climatic benefits reinforce the need to reduce emissions rapidly.

High resilience of the mycorrhizal community to prescribed seasonal burnings in eastern Mediterranean woodlands.

Fire effects on ecosystems range from destruction of aboveground vegetation to direct and indirect effects on belowground microorganisms. Although variation in such effects is expected to be related to fire severity, another potentially important and poorly understood factor is the effect of fire seasonality on soil microorganisms. We carried out a large-scale field experiment examining the effects of spring (early-dry season) versus autumn (late-dry- season) burns on the community composition of soil fungi in a typical Mediterranean woodland. Although the intensity and severity of our prescribed burns were largely consistent between the two burning seasons, we detected differential fire season effects on the composition of the soil fungal community, driven by changes in the saprotrophic fungal guild. The community composition of ectomycorrhizal fungi, assayed both in pine seedling bioassays and from soil sequencing, appeared to be resilient to the variation inflicted by seasonal fires. Since changes in the soil saprotrophic fungal community can directly influence carbon emission and decomposition rates, we suggest that regardless of their intensity and severity, seasonal fires may cause changes in ecosystem functioning.

Recognizing animal personhood in compassionate conservation.

Compassionate conservation is based on the ethical position that actions taken to protect biodiversity should be guided by compassion for all sentient beings. Critics argue that there are 3 core reasons harming animals is acceptable in conservation programs: the primary purpose of conservation is biodiversity protection; conservation is already compassionate to animals; and conservation should prioritize compassion to humans. We used argument analysis to clarify the values and logics underlying the debate around compassionate conservation. We found that objections to compassionate conservation are expressions of human exceptionalism, the view that humans are of a categorically separate and higher moral status than all other species. In contrast, compassionate conservationists believe that conservation should expand its moral community by recognizing all sentient beings as persons. Personhood, in an ethical sense, implies the individual is owed respect and should not be treated merely as a means to other ends. On scientific and ethical grounds, there are good reasons to extend personhood to sentient animals, particularly in conservation. The moral exclusion or subordination of members of other species legitimates the ongoing manipulation and exploitation of the living worlds, the very reason conservation was needed in the first place. Embracing compassion can help dismantle human exceptionalism, recognize nonhuman personhood, and navigate a more expansive moral space.

Reconocimiento de la Calidad de Persona en los Animales dentro de la Conservación Compasiva Resumen La conservación compasiva está basada en la posición ética que parte de que las acciones tomadas para proteger a la biodiversidad deberían estar dirigidas por la compasión por todos los seres sintientes. Los críticos de esta postura argumentan que hay tres razones nucleares por las que el daño a los animales es aceptable dentro de los programas de conservación: el principal motivo de la conservación es la protección de la biodiversidad; la conservación ya es compasiva con los animales; y la conservación debería priorizar la compasión hacia los humanos. Usamos un análisis de argumentos para aclarar los valores y la lógica subyacentes al debate en torno a la conservación compasiva. Encontramos que el rechazo a la conservación compasiva es una expresión de la excepcionalidad humana, la visión de que los humanos están en un nivel categóricamente separado y de mayor moral que todas las demás especies. Por el contrario, los conservacionistas compasivos creen que la conservación debería expandir su comunidad moral al reconocer a todos los seres sintientes como personas. La calidad de persona, en un sentido ético, implica que el individuo merece respeto y no debería ser tratado solamente como un medio para otros fines. Si hablamos desde fundamentos científicos y éticos, existen muy buenas razones para extender la calidad de persona a todos los animales sintientes, particularmente en la conservación. La exclusión moral o la subordinación de los miembros de otras especies justifica la continua manipulación y explotación de los seres vivos, la justa razón por la que necesitamos de la conservación desde el principio. La aceptación de la compasión nos puede ayudar a desmantelar la excepcionalidad humana, a reconocer la calidad de persona no humana y a navegar un espacio moral más expansivo.

Operationalizing evolutionary transitions in individuality.

Evolutionary transitions in individuality (hereafter, ETIs), such as the transition to multi-cellularity and the transition to social colonies, have been at the centre of evolutionary research, but only few attempts were made to systematically operationalize this concept. Here, we devise a set of four indicators intended to assess the change in complexity during ETIs: system size, inseparability, reproductive specialization and non-reproductive specialization. We then conduct a quantitative comparison across multiple taxa and ETIs. Our analysis reveals that inseparability has a crucial role in the process; it seems irreversible and may mark the point where a group of individuals becomes a new individual at a higher hierarchical level. Interestingly, we find that disparate groups demonstrate a similar pattern of progression along ETIs.

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.

Expanded view of ecosystem stability: A grazed grassland case study.

Analysis of stability under linearized dynamics is central to ecology. We highlight two key limitations of the widely used traditional analysis. First, we note that while stability at fixed points is often the focus, ecological systems may spend less time near fixed points, and more time responding to stochastic environmental forcing by exhibiting wide zero-mean fluctuations about those states. If non-steady, uniquely precarious states along the nonlinear flow are analyzed instead of fixed points, transient growth is possible and indeed common for ecosystems with stable attractive fixed points. Second, we show that in either steady or non-steady states, eigenvalue based analysis can misleadingly suggest stability while eigenvector geometry arising from the non-self-adjointness of the linearized operator can yield large finite-time instabilities. We offer a simple alternative to eigenvalue based stability analysis that naturally and straightforwardly overcome these limitations.

Intraguild Predation Dynamics in a Lake Ecosystem Based on a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ecological Model: The Example of Lake Kinneret (Israel).

The food web of Lake Kinneret contains intraguild predation (IGP). Predatory invertebrates and planktivorous fish both feed on herbivorous zooplankton, while the planktivorous fish also feed on the predatory invertebrates. In this study, a complex mechanistic hydrodynamic-ecological model, coupled to a bioenergetics-based fish population model (DYCD-FISH), was employed with the aim of revealing IGP dynamics. The results indicate that the predation pressure of predatory zooplankton on herbivorous zooplankton varies widely, depending on the season. At the time of its annual peak, it is 10-20 times higher than the fish predation pressure. When the number of fish was significantly higher, as occurs in the lake after atypical meteorological years, the effect was a shift from a bottom-up controlled ecosystem, to the top-down control of planktivorous fish and a significant reduction of predatory and herbivorous zooplankton biomass. Yet, seasonally, the decrease in predatory-zooplankton biomass was followed by a decrease in their predation pressure on herbivorous zooplankton, leading to an increase of herbivorous zooplankton biomass to an extent similar to the base level. The analysis demonstrates the emergence of non-equilibrium IGP dynamics due to intra-annual and inter-annual changes in the physico-chemical characteristics of the lake, and suggests that IGP dynamics should be considered in food web models in order to more accurately capture mass transfer and trophic interactions.

Bird and mammal species composition in distinct geographic regions and their relationships with environmental factors across multiple spatial scales.

Global patters of species distributions and their underlying mechanisms are a major question in ecology, and the need for multi-scale analyses has been recognized. Previous studies recognized climate, topography, habitat heterogeneity and disturbance as important variables affecting such patterns. Here we report on analyses of species composition - environment relationships among different taxonomic groups in two continents, and the components of such relationships, in the contiguous USA and Australia. We used partial Canonical Correspondence Analysis of occurrence records of mammals and breeding birds from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, to quantify relationships between species composition and environmental variables in remote geographic regions at multiple spatial scales, with extents ranging from 10(5) to 10(7) km(2) and sampling grids from 10 to 10,000 km(2). We evaluated the concept that two elements contribute to the impact of environmental variables on composition: the strength of species' affinity to an environmental variable, and the amount of variance in the variable. To disentangle these two elements, we analyzed correlations between resulting trends and the amount of variance contained in different environmental variables to isolate the mechanisms behind the observed relationships. We found that climate and land use-land cover are responsible for most explained variance in species composition, regardless of scale, taxonomic group and geographic region. However, the amount of variance in species composition attributed to land use / land cover (LULC) was closely related to the amount of intrinsic variability in LULC in the USA, but not in Australia, while the effect of climate on species composition was negatively correlated to the variability found in the climatic variables. The low variance in climate, compared to LULC, suggests that species in both taxonomic groups have strong affinity to climate, thus it has a strong effect on species distribution and community composition, while the opposite is true for LULC.

Environmental heterogeneity affects the location of modelled communities along the niche-neutrality continuum.

The continuum hypothesis has been proposed as a means to reconcile the contradiction between the niche and neutral theories. While past research has shown that species richness affects the location of communities along the niche-neutrality continuum, there may be extrinsic forces at play as well. We used a spatially explicit continuum model to quantify the effects of environmental heterogeneity, comprising abundance distribution and spatial configuration of resources, on the degree of community neutrality. We found that both components of heterogeneity affect the degree of community neutrality and that species' dispersal characteristics affect the neutrality-heterogeneity relationship. Narrower resource abundance distributions decrease neutrality, while spatial configuration, which is manifested by spatial aggregation of resources, decreases neutrality at higher aggregation levels. In general, the degree of community neutrality was affected by complex interactions among spatial configuration of resources, their abundance distributions and the dispersal characteristics of species in the community. Our results highlight the important yet overlooked role of the environment in dictating the location of communities along the hypothesized niche-neutrality continuum.

Trends in ecological research during the last three decades--a systematic review.

It is thought that the science of ecology has experienced conceptual shifts in recent decades, chiefly from viewing nature as static and balanced to a conception of constantly changing, unpredictable, complex ecosystems. Here, we ask if these changes are reflected in actual ecological research over the last 30 years. We surveyed 750 articles from the entire pool of ecological literature and 750 articles from eight leading journals. Each article was characterized according to its type, ecological domain, and applicability, and major topics. We found that, in contrast to its common image, ecology is still mostly a study of single species (70% of the studies); while ecosystem and community studies together comprise only a quarter of ecological research. Ecological science is somewhat conservative in its topics of research (about a third of all topics changed significantly through time), as well as in its basic methodologies and approaches. However, the growing proportion of problem-solving studies (from 9% in the 1980s to 20% in the 2000 s) may represent a major transition in ecological science in the long run.

Multiscale analyses of mammal species composition--environment relationship in the contiguous USA.

Relationships between species composition and its environmental determinants are a basic objective of ecology. Such relationships are scale dependent, and predictors of species composition typically include variables such as climate, topographic, historical legacies, land uses, human population levels, and random processes. Our objective was to quantify the effect of environmental determinants on U.S. mammal composition at various spatial scales. We found that climate was the predominant factor affecting species composition, and its relative impact increased in correlation with the increase of the spatial scale. Another factor affecting species composition is land-use-land-cover. Our findings showed that its impact decreased as the spatial scale increased. We provide quantitative indication of highly significant effect of climate and land-use-land-cover variables on mammal composition at multiple scales.

Spatial analysis of air pollution and cancer incidence rates in Haifa Bay, Israel.

The Israel National Cancer Registry reported in 2001 that cancer incidence rates in the Haifa area are roughly 20% above the national average. Since Haifa has been the major industrial center in Israel since 1930, concern has been raised that the elevated cancer rates may be associated with historically high air pollution levels. This work tests whether persistent spatial patterns of metrics of chronic exposure to air pollutants are associated with the observed patterns of cancer incidence rates. Risk metrics of chronic exposure to PM(10), emitted both by industry and traffic, and to SO(2), a marker of industrial emissions, was developed. Ward-based maps of standardized incidence rates of three prevalent cancers: Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, lung cancer and bladder cancer were also produced. Global clustering tests were employed to filter out those cancers that show sufficiently random spatial distribution to have a nil probability of being related to the spatial non-random risk maps. A Bayesian method was employed to assess possible associations between the morbidity and risk patterns, accounting for the ward-based socioeconomic status ranking. Lung cancer in males and bladder cancer in both genders showed non-random spatial patterns. No significant associations between the SO(2)-based risk maps and any of the cancers were found. Lung cancer in males was found to be associated with PM(10), with the relative risk associated with an increase of 1 microg/m(3) of PM(10) being 12%. Special consideration of wards with expected rates <1 improved the results by decreasing the variance of the spatially correlated residual log-relative risk.

Uses and misuses of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in environmental decision making.

We focus on a class of multicriteria methods that are commonly used in environmental decision making--those that employ the weighted linear average algorithm (and this includes the popular analytic hierarchy process (AHP)). While we do not doubt the potential benefits of using formal decision methods of this type, we draw attention to the consequences of not using them well. In particular, we highlight a property of these methods that should not be overlooked when they are applied in environmental and wider decision-making contexts: the final decision or ranking of options is dependent on the choice of performance scoring scales for the criteria when the criteria weights are held constant. We compare this "sensitivity" to a well-known criticism of the AHP, and we go on to describe the more general lesson when it comes to using weighted linear average methods--a lesson concerning the relationship between criteria weights and performance scoring scales.

Analyzing spatially distributed binary data using independent-block estimating equations.

We estimate the relation between binary responses and corresponding covariate vectors, both observed over a large spatial lattice. We assume a hierarchical generalized linear model with probit link function, partition the lattice into blocks, and adopt the working assumption of independence between the blocks to obtain an easily solved estimating equation. Standard errors are obtained using the "sandwich" estimator together with window subsampling (Sherman, 1996, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B58, 509-523). We apply this to a large data set describing long-term vegetation growth, together with two other approximate-likelihood approaches: pairwise composite likelihood (CL) and estimation under a working assumption of independence. The independence and CL methods give similar point estimates and standard errors, while the independent-block approach gives considerably smaller standard errors, as well as more easily interpretable point estimates. We present numerical evidence suggesting this increased efficiency may hold more generally.