An ensemble of bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate simulations based on a high-resolution North American reanalysis.

ESPO-G6-R2 v1.0 is a set of statistically downscaled and bias-adjusted climate simulations based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models. The dataset is composed of daily timeseries of three variables: daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily precipitation. Data are available from 1950 to 2100 over North America. The simulation ensemble is comprised of 14 models driven by two emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0). In this paper, we describe the workflow used for the bias-adjustment, which relies on the detrended quantile mapping method and the Regional Deterministic Reforecast System (RDRS) v2.1 reference dataset. Using the framework defined in the VALUE project, we show the improvements made by the bias-adjustment on marginal, temporal and multivariate aspects of the data. We also verify that the bias-adjusted climate data have similar climate change signal to the original climate model simulations. Finally, we provide guidance to users on how to use this dataset.

How decadal predictions entered the climate services arena: an example from the agriculture sector.

Predicting the variations in climate for the coming 1-10 years is of great interest for decision makers, as this time horizon coincides with the strategic planning of stakeholders from climate-vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. This study attempts to illustrate the potential value of decadal predictions in the development of climate services by establishing interactions and collaboration with stakeholders concerned with food production and security. Building on our experience from interacting with users and the increased understanding of their needs gathered over the years through our participation in various European activities and initiatives, we developed a decadal forecast product that provides tailored and user-friendly information about multi-year dry conditions for the coming five years over global wheat harvesting regions. This study revealed that the coproduction approach, where the interaction between the user and climate service provider is established at an early stage of forecast product development, is a fundamental step to successfully provide useful and ultimately actionable information to the interested stakeholders. The study also provides insights that shed light on the reasons for the delayed entry of decadal predictions in the climate services discourse and practice, obtained from surveying climate scientists and discussing with decadal prediction experts. Finally, it shows the key challenges that this new source of climate information still faces.

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble.

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models.

Using millennia-long climate model simulations, favorable environments for tropical cyclone formation are examined to determine whether the record number of tropical cyclones in the 2005 Atlantic season is close to the maximum possible number for the present climate of that basin. By estimating both the mean number of tropical cyclones and their possible year-to-year random variability, we find that the likelihood that the maximum number of storms in the Atlantic could be greater than the number of events observed during the 2005 season is less than 3.5%. Using a less restrictive comparison between simulated and observed climate with the internal variability accounted for, this probability increases to 9%; however, the estimated maximum possible number of tropical cyclones does not greatly exceed the 2005 total. Hence, the 2005 season can be used as a risk management benchmark for the maximum possible number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.

Thomas Willis, the Restoration and the First Works of Neurology.

This article provides a new consideration of how Thomas Willis (1621-75) came to write the first works of 'neurology', which was in its time a novel use of cerebral and neural anatomy to defend philosophical claims about the mind. Willis's neurology was shaped by the immediate political and religious contexts of the English Civil War and Restoration. Accordingly, the majority of this paper is devoted to uncovering the political necessities Willis faced during the Restoration of the English monarchy in 1660, with particular focus on the significance of Willis's dedication of his neurology and natural philosophy to the Archbishop of Canterbury, Gilbert Sheldon. Because the Restoration of Charles II brought only a semblance of order and peace, Willis and his allies understood the need for a coherent defense of the authority of the English church and its liturgy. Of particular importance to Sheldon and Willis (and to others in Sheldon's circle) were the specific ceremonies described in the Book of Common Prayer, a manual that directed the congregation to assume various postures during public worship. This article demonstrates that Willis's neurology should be read as an intervention in these debates, that his neurology would have been read at the time as an attempt to ground orthodox worship in the structure of the brain and nerves. The political necessities that helped to shape Willis's project also help us to better understand Willis's innovative insistence that philosophical statements about the mind should be formulated only after a comprehensive anatomical investigation of the brain and nerves.

Risk Factors for a Severe Bleb Leak Following Trabeculectomy: A Retrospective Case-Control Study.

PURPOSE: To describe the population at risk of having a severe bleb leak needing a surgical repair in the operating room and to study risk factors associated with severe bleb leak. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this case-control study, 17 cases were enrolled and paired with 51 controls. We studied all patients having a surgical revision in our center for a severe bleb leak between January 1 and December 31, 2008. Three controls were paired to each case based on their surgery date. We then analyzed risk factors related to the patient, the intervention, and the postoperative follow-up. RESULTS: Younger age was the only statistically significant risk factor for a severe bleb leak in our study. The odds of a severe bleb leak decreased as the age increased (P=0.0029). In comparing the risk for a severe bleb leak in younger (below 55 y) versus patients aged 75 years or older, the odds ratio was 21.0. There were no statistically significant differences between cases and controls with respect to: type of glaucoma, number or types of previous ocular surgeries, number of preoperative topical medications, localization of the leak, localization of the wound (fornix or limbus-based), or the intraocular pressure on day 1 postoperative. CONCLUSIONS: Younger age at the time of trabeculectomy may be a risk factor for severe bleb leak. A trend was observed in which the patients under the age of 55 years were at greater risk for a severe bleb leak.

Event management for large scale event-driven digital hardware spiking neural networks.

The interest in brain-like computation has led to the design of a plethora of innovative neuromorphic systems. Individually, spiking neural networks (SNNs), event-driven simulation and digital hardware neuromorphic systems get a lot of attention. Despite the popularity of event-driven SNNs in software, very few digital hardware architectures are found. This is because existing hardware solutions for event management scale badly with the number of events. This paper introduces the structured heap queue, a pipelined digital hardware data structure, and demonstrates its suitability for event management. The structured heap queue scales gracefully with the number of events, allowing the efficient implementation of large scale digital hardware event-driven SNNs. The scaling is linear for memory, logarithmic for logic resources and constant for processing time. The use of the structured heap queue is demonstrated on a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) with an image segmentation experiment and a SNN of 65,536 neurons and 513,184 synapses. Events can be processed at the rate of 1 every 7 clock cycles and a 406×158 pixel image is segmented in 200 ms.