Development and Validation of an Integrated Suite of Prediction Models for All-Cause 30-Day Readmissions of Children and Adolescents Aged 0 to 18 Years.

Importance: Readmission is often considered a hospital quality measure, yet no validated risk prediction models exist for children. Objective: To develop and validate a tool identifying patients before hospital discharge who are at risk for subsequent readmission, applicable to all ages. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based prognostic analysis used electronic health record-derived data from a freestanding children's hospital from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2019. All-cause 30-day readmission was modeled using 3 years of discharge data. Data were analyzed from June 1 to November 30, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Three models were derived as a complementary suite to include (1) children 6 months or older with 1 or more prior hospitalizations within the last 6 months (recent admission model [RAM]), (2) children 6 months or older with no prior hospitalizations in the last 6 months (new admission model [NAM]), and (3) children younger than 6 months (young infant model [YIM]). Generalized mixed linear models were used for all analyses. Models were validated using an additional year of discharges. Results: The derivation set contained 29 988 patients with 48 019 hospitalizations; 50.1% of these admissions were for children younger than 5 years and 54.7% were boys. In the derivation set, 4878 of 13 490 admissions (36.2%) in the RAM cohort, 2044 of 27 531 (7.4%) in the NAM cohort, and 855 of 6998 (12.2%) in the YIM cohort were followed within 30 days by a readmission. In the RAM cohort, prior utilization, current or prior procedures indicative of severity of illness (transfusion, ventilation, or central venous catheter), commercial insurance, and prolonged length of stay (LOS) were associated with readmission. In the NAM cohort, procedures, prolonged LOS, and emergency department visit in the past 6 months were associated with readmission. In the YIM cohort, LOS, prior visits, and critical procedures were associated with readmission. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 83.1 (95% CI, 82.4-83.8) for the RAM cohort, 76.1 (95% CI, 75.0-77.2) for the NAM cohort, and 80.3 (95% CI, 78.8-81.9) for the YIM cohort. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study, the suite of 3 prediction models had acceptable to excellent discrimination for children. These models may allow future improvements in tailored discharge preparedness to prevent high-risk readmissions.

So You Have a Research Idea: A Survey of Databases Available for Plastic Surgery Research.

Plastic surgery research using large databases has increased dramatically over the past 20 years. With the magnitude and breadth of information available in these databases, researchers are able to more easily answer a wide variety of research questions. This study sought to provide a comprehensive comparative analysis of the relevant databases for plastic surgery research. Database information, data collection methods, acquisition details, and variable availability were collected for 19 large databases. Examples of potential future research utility were ascribed to each database based on this comprehensive analysis. With a greater understanding of the content, strengths, and limitations of these databases, researchers will be better equipped to select the most appropriate database to answer a specific research question.

Kinetics feasibility study of alcohol sulfate esterification reactions in tropospheric aerosols.

Sulfate esters have recently been identified in the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed in the photooxidation of biogenic hydrocarbons both in laboratory and under ambient atmospheric conditions. In the present study, the kinetics feasibility of direct reactions between alcohols and sulfuric acid to form sulfate esters in aerosol particles is explored. Nuclear magnetic resonance methods were used to monitor the bulk reaction kinetics of sulfate esterification reactions for a number of simple alcohols. The experiments were carried out at various sulfuric acid concentrations and a range of temperatures in order to estimate the rate constants of such reactions in aerosols under the previously studied laboratory conditions and under ambient atmospheric conditions. The measured rate constants did not depend greatly on the identity of the reactant alcohol, but increased strongly as a function of the sulfuric acid concentration, as predicted by excess acidity theory. Because of the strong temperature dependence of the rate constants for the direct reaction of alcohols with sulfuric acid, it appears that these reactions are kinetically infeasible for low temperature upper tropospheric sulfuric aerosols. For lower tropospheric SOA, it appears that the aerosol acidity is rarely high enough such that these reactions are likely to be responsible for the presence of sulfate esters in SOA.