Establishment of apiary-level risk of American foulbrood through the detection of Paenibacillus larvae spores in pooled, extracted honey in Saskatchewan.

Paenibacillus larvae, the causative agent of American foulbrood (AFB), produces spores that may be detectable within honey. We analyzed the spore content of pooled, extracted honey from 52 large-scale (L) and 64 small-scale (S) Saskatchewan beekeepers over a two-year period (2019-2020). Our objectives were: (i) establish reliable prognostic reference ranges for spore concentrations in extracted honey to determine future AFB risk at the apiary level; (ii) identify management practices as targets for mitigation of risk. P. larvae spores were detected in 753 of 1476 samples (51%). Beekeepers were stratified into low (< 2 spores/gram), moderate (2- < 100 spores/gram), and high (≥ 100 spores/gram) risk categories. Of forty-nine L beekeepers sampled in 2019, those that reported AFB in 2020 included 0/26 low, 3/18 moderate, and 3/5 high risk. Of twenty-seven L beekeepers sampled in 2020, those that reported AFB in 2021 included 0/11 low, 2/14 moderate, and 1/2 high risk. Predictive modelling included indoor overwintering of hives, purchase of used equipment, movement of honey-producing colonies between apiaries, beekeeper demographic, and antimicrobial use as risk category predictors. Saskatchewan beekeepers with fewer than 2 spores/gram in extracted honey that avoid high risk activities may be considered at low risk of AFB the following year.