ABIDE: An Accurate Predictive Model of Liver Decompensation in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver-Related Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an increasingly important cause of liver cirrhosis and subsequent complications. We retrospectively developed and validated a model to predict hepatic decompensation in patients with NAFLD and cirrhosis and compared this with currently available models. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Baseline variables from an international cohort of 299 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD with compensated cirrhosis were examined to construct a model using competing risk multivariate regression and Akaike/Bayesian information criteria. Validation was performed in 244 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD cirrhosis from the United States. Prognostic accuracy was compared with the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI)-FIB-4 score using time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC) analysis. During a median follow-up of 5.6 years (range 2.4-14.1) and 5.4 years (range 1.5-13.8), hepatic decompensation occurred in 81 and 132 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In the derivation cohort, independent predictors of hepatic decompensation (Aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, Bilirubin, International normalized ratio, type 2 Diabetes, and Esophageal varices) were combined into the ABIDE model. Patients with a score ≥4.1 compared with those with a score <4.1 had a higher risk of decompensation (subhazard ratio, 6.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0-11.2; P < 0.001), a greater 5-year cumulative incidence (37% vs. 6%, P < 0.001), and shorter mean duration to decompensation (3.8 vs 6.7 years, P < 0.001). The accuracy of the ABIDE model at 5 years was good in the derivation (tAUC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73-0.84) and validation cohorts (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.81) and was significantly more accurate than the NFS (0.72), FIB-4 (0.74), MELD (0.69), CTP (0.72), and ALBI-FIB-4 (0.73) (all P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with NAFLD and compensated cirrhosis, ABIDE, a predictive model of routine clinical measures, predicts future hepatic decompensation.

Type 2 Diabetes and Metformin Use Associate With Outcomes of Patients With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis-Related, Child-Pugh A Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Factors that affect outcomes of patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)-related cirrhosis are unclear. We studied associations of type 2 diabetes, levels of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and use of antidiabetic medications with survival and liver-related events in patients with NASH and compensated cirrhosis. METHODS: We collected data from 299 patients with biopsy-proven NASH with Child-Pugh A cirrhosis from tertiary hospitals in Spain, Australia, Hong Kong, and Cuba, from April 1995 through December 2016. We obtained information on the presence of type 2 diabetes, level of HbA1c, and use of antidiabetic medications. Cox proportional and competing risk models were used to estimate and compare rates of transplant-free survival, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). RESULTS: A total of 212 patients had type 2 diabetes at baseline and 8 of 87 patients developed diabetes during a median follow-up time of 5.1 years (range, 0.5-10.0 y). A lower proportion of patients with diabetes survived the entire follow-up period (38%) than of patients with no diabetes (81%) (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.23; 95% CI, 1.93-9.29). Higher proportions of patients with diabetes also had hepatic decompensation (51% vs 26% of patients with no diabetes; aHR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.005-4.11) and HCC (25% vs 7% of patients with no diabetes; aHR, 5.42; 95% CI, 1.74-16.80). Averaged annual HbA1c levels over time were not associated with outcomes. Metformin use over time was associated with a significant reduction in risk of death or liver transplantation (aHR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.26-0.45), hepatic decompensation (aHR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.74-0.97), and HCC (aHR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.69-0.96). Metformin significantly reduced the risk of hepatic decompensation and HCC only in subjects with HbA1c levels greater than 7.0% (aHR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99 and aHR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.43-0.94, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In an international cohort of patients with biopsy-proven NASH and Child-Pugh A cirrhosis, type 2 diabetes increased the risk of death and liver-related outcomes, including HCC. Patients who took metformin had higher rates of survival and lower rates of decompensation and HCC.

Fibrosis Severity as a Determinant of Cause-Specific Mortality in Patients With Advanced Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Multi-National Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Little is known about the natural course of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with advanced fibrosis. We describe long-term outcomes and evaluate the effects of clinical and histologic parameters on disease progression in patients with advanced NAFLD. METHODS: We conducted a multi-national study of 458 patients with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD with bridging fibrosis (F3, n = 159) or compensated cirrhosis (222 patients with Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores of A5 and 77 patients with scores of A6), evaluated from April 1995 through November 2013 and followed until December 2016, death, or liver transplantation at hepatology centers in Spain, Australia, Hong Kong, and Cuba. Biopsies were re-evaluated and scored; demographic, clinical, laboratory, and pathology data for each patient were collected from the time of liver biopsy collection. Cox proportional and competing risk models were used to estimate rates of transplantation-free survival and major clinical events and to identify factors associated with outcomes. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up time of 5.5 years (range, 2.7-8.2 years), 37 patients died, 37 received liver transplants, 88 had initial hepatic decompensation events, 41 developed hepatocellular carcinoma, 14 had vascular events, and 30 developed nonhepatic cancers. A higher proportion of patients with F3 fibrosis survived transplantation-free for 10 years (94%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 86%-99%) than of patients with cirrhosis and Child-Turcotte-Pugh A5 (74%; 95% CI, 61%-89%) or Child-Turcotte-Pugh A6 (17%; 95% CI, 6%-29%). Patients with cirrhosis were more likely than patients with F3 fibrosis to have hepatic decompensation (44%; 95% CI, 32%-60% vs 6%, 95% CI, 2%-13%) or hepatocellular carcinoma (17%; 95% CI, 8%-31% vs 2.3%, 95% CI, 1%-12%). The cumulative incidence of vascular events was higher in patients with F3 fibrosis (7%; 95% CI, 3%-18%) than cirrhosis (2%; 95% CI, 0%-6%). The cumulative incidence of nonhepatic malignancies was higher in patients with F3 fibrosis (14%; 95% CI, 7%-23%) than cirrhosis (6%; 95% CI, 2%-15%). Death or transplantation, decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma were independently associated with baseline cirrhosis and mild (<33%) steatosis, whereas moderate alcohol consumption was associated with these outcomes only in patients with cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with NAFLD cirrhosis have predominantly liver-related events, whereas those with bridging fibrosis have predominantly nonhepatic cancers and vascular events.

Acute liver failure in Cuban children.

INTRODUCTION: Acute liver failure is rare in pediatric patients and is one of the most challenging medical emergencies due to its prognostic and therapeutic implications. The best scientific evidence worldwide comes from multicenter studies in developed countries. In Cuba, there are no prior studies of this disorder in children. OBJECTIVES: Describe the main clinical features of Cuban children treated at a national referral center for acute liver failure, as defined by recognized diagnostic criteria for pediatric patients. METHODS: A case series study was conducted comprising patients diagnosed with acute liver failure treated from 2005 to 2011 in the hepatology and liver transplant service at Havana's William Soler University Children's Hospital. Variables were age group, etiology of acute liver failure, grade of hepatic encephalopathy, blood chemistry variables, and clinical outcome (whether or not spontaneous recovery of liver function occurred). Associations between variables were assessed using contingency tables, and case fatality was calculated, as well as relative risk with its 95% confidence interval. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare means of laboratory test results. RESULTS: Median age of the 31 patients studied (14 boys and 17 girls) was 24 months (range 1-180). Time between symptom onset and diagnosis of acute liver failure was 25.1 days (SD 16.8). Infection was the most common etiology, present in 61.3% of cases (19/31); nonhepatotropic viruses, especially cytomegalovirus, predominated in infants. Spontaneous recovery occurred in 15 patients (48.4%), 3 (9.7%) received transplants, and 13 died, for a case fatality of 41.9%. Outcome was not associated with etiology (p = 0.106), but was statistically associated with degree of hepatic encephalopathy (p <0.01): 77.8% of patients (7/9) with grades III-IV encephalopathy died, for a relative risk of 4.0 (95% CI 1.15-13.8), versus 11.1% (1/9) with grade II or less encephalopathy. Cholesterol levels were significantly lower in patients who failed to recover spontaneously (p <0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Patients' clinical characteristics in this case series were similar to those described in developed countries.The fact that nonhepatotropic viruses (basically, cytomegalovirus in infants) are the main cause of acute liver failure in Cuban children calls for further epidemiologic study and identification of local underlying determinants of this phenomenon.

HCV-specific immune responses induced by CIGB-230 in combination with IFN-α plus ribavirin.

AIM: To analyze hepatitis C virus (HCV)-specific immune responses in chronically infected patients under triple therapy with interferon-α (IFN-α) plus ribavirin and CIGB-230. METHODS: CIGB-230 was administered in different schedules with respect to IFN-α plus ribavirin therapy. Paired serum and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) samples from baseline and end of treatment were analyzed. The HCV-specific humoral response was tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, neutralizing antibodies were evaluated by cell culture HCV neutralization assays, PBMC proliferation was assayed by carboxyfluorescein succinimidyl ester staining and IFN-γ secretion was assessed by enzyme-linked immunospot. Data on virological and histological response and their association with immune variables are also provided. RESULTS: From week 12 to week 48, all groups of patients showed a significant reduction in mean leukocyte counts. Statistically significant reductions in antibody titers were frequent, but only individuals immunized with CIGB-230 as early add-on treatment sustained the core-IgG response, and the neutralizing antibody response was enhanced only in patients receiving CIGB-230. Cell-mediated immune responses also tended to decline, but significant reductions in IFN-γ secretion and total absence of core-specific lymphoproliferation were exclusive of the control group. Only CIGB-230-immunized individuals showed de novo induced lymphoproliferative responses against the structural antigens. Importantly, it was demonstrated that the quality of the CIGB-230-induced immune response depended on the number of doses and timing of administration in relation to the antiviral therapy. Specifically, the administration of 6 doses of CIGB-230 as late add-on to therapy increased the neutralizing antibody activity and the de novo core-specific IFN-γ secretion, both of which were associated with the sustained virological response. CONCLUSION: CIGB-230, combined with IFN-α-based therapy, modifies the immune response in chronic patients. The study provides evidence for the design of more effective therapeutic vaccine interventions against HCV.

Immunization with a DNA vaccine candidate in chronic hepatitis C patients is safe, well tolerated and does not impair immune response induction after anti-hepatitis B vaccination.

BACKGROUND: In the present study, we evaluated the safety of CIGB-230, a novel vaccine candidate based on the mixture of a plasmid for DNA immunization, expressing hepatitis C virus (HCV) structural antigens, with a recombinant HCV Core protein. METHODS: Fifteen HCV chronically-infected volunteers with detectable levels of HCV RNA genotype 1b, who were nonresponders to previous treatment with interferon plus ribavirin, were intramuscularly injected with CIGB-230 on weeks 0, 4, 8, 12, 16 and 20. Individuals were also immunized at weeks 28, 32 and 36 with a recombinant vaccine against hepatitis B. Adverse events were recorded and analyzed. Blood samples were taken every 4 weeks up to month 12 for hematological, biochemical, virological and immunological analysis. RESULTS: All patients completed the treatment with CIGB-230. Adverse events were only slight (83.6%) or moderate (16.4%). No significant differences in hematological and biochemical parameters, including serum aminotransferases, were detected between the baseline and post-treatment state. Induction of a CD4+ T lymphocyte response against a particular region in HCV E1, spanning amino acids 230-312 in HCV polyprotein, was detected in 42.8% of patients during treatment with CIGB-230. The ability of T cells to proliferate in response to mitogenic stimulation was not weakened. Most individuals (78.6%) were seroprotected after anti-hepatitis B vaccination and 42.8% were hyper-responders (antibody titers > 100 UI/ml). No anti-mitochondrial, anti-nuclear and anti-extractable nuclear antigen antibodies were generated during immunization with CIGB-230. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination with CIGB-230 in HCV chronically-infected individuals was safe, well tolerated and did not impair the ability to respond to non-HCV antigens.