Effectiveness of the International Phytosanitary Standard ISPM No. 15 on reducing wood borer infestation rates in wood packaging material entering the United States.

Numerous bark- and wood-infesting insects have been introduced to new countries by international trade where some have caused severe environmental and economic damage. Wood packaging material (WPM), such as pallets, is one of the high risk pathways for the introduction of wood pests. International recognition of this risk resulted in adoption of International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures No. 15 (ISPM15) in 2002, which provides treatment standards for WPM used in international trade. ISPM15 was originally developed by members of the International Plant Protection Convention to "practically eliminate" the risk of international transport of most bark and wood pests via WPM. The United States (US) implemented ISPM15 in three phases during 2005-2006. We compared pest interception rates of WPM inspected at US ports before and after US implementation of ISPM15 using the US Department of Agriculture AQIM (Agriculture Quarantine Inspection Monitoring) database. Analyses of records from 2003-2009 indicated that WPM infestation rates declined 36-52% following ISPM15 implementation, with results varying in statistical significance depending on the selected starting parameters. Power analyses of the AQIM data indicated there was at least a 95% chance of detecting a statistically significant reduction in infestation rates if they dropped by 90% post-ISPM15, but the probability fell as the impact of ISPM15 lessened. We discuss several factors that could have reduced the apparent impact of ISPM15 on lowering WPM infestation levels, and suggest ways that ISPM15 could be improved. The paucity of international interception data impeded our ability to conduct more thorough analyses of the impact of ISPM15, and demonstrates the need for well-planned sampling programs before and after implementation of major phytosanitary policies so that their effectiveness can be assessed. We also present summary data for bark- and wood-boring insects intercepted on WPM at US ports during 1984-2008.

Predicting how altering propagule pressure changes establishment rates of biological invaders across species pools.

Biological invasions resulting from international trade can cause major environmental and economic impacts. Propagule pressure is perhaps the most important factor influencing establishment, although actual arrival rates of species are rarely recorded. Furthermore, the pool of potential invaders includes many species that vary in their arrival rate and establishment potential. Therefore, we stress that it is essential to consider the size and composition of species pools arriving from source regions when estimating probabilities of establishment and effects of pathway infestation rates. To address this, we developed a novel framework and modeling approach to enable prediction of future establishments in relation to changes in arrival rate across entire species pools. We utilized 13 828 border interception records from the United States and New Zealand for 444 true bark beetle (Scolytinae) and longhorned beetle (Cerambycidae) species detected between 1949 and 2008 as proxies for arrival rates to model the relationship between arrival and establishment rates. Nonlinearity in this relationship implies that measures intended to reduce the unintended transport of potential invaders (such as phytosanitary treatments) must be highly effective in order to substantially reduce the rate of future invasions, particularly if trade volumes continue to increase.

Invasion Pathways of Karnal Bunt of Wheat into the United States.

Karnal bunt of wheat (caused by Tilletia indica) was first detected in the United States in Arizona in 1996. The seed lots of infected, spring-habit, durum wheat associated with the initial detection were traced to planted fields in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. However, in the summer of 1997, the disease appeared in unrelated, winter-habit, bread wheat located over 700 km from the nearest potentially contaminated wheat from 1996 (and destroyed prior to reinfection). Here, we examined potential invasion pathways of the fungus associated with the movement of wheat into the United States. We analyzed the USDA/APHIS Port Information Network (PIN) database from 1984 through 2000 to determine likely pathways of introduction based on where, when, and how the disease was intercepted coming into the United States. All interceptions were made on wheat transported from Mexico, with the majority (98.8%) being intercepted at land border crossings. Karnal bunt was not intercepted from any other country over the 17-year period analyzed. Most interceptions were on wheat found in automobiles, trucks, and railway cars. The majority of interceptions were made at Laredo, Brownsville, Eagle Pass, and El Paso, TX, and Nogales, AZ. Karnal bunt was intercepted in all 17 years; however, interceptions peaked in 1986 and 1987. Averaged over all years, more interceptions (19.2%) were made in the month of May than in any other month. Our results indicate that Karnal bunt has probably arrived in the United States on many occasions, at least since 1984. Because of the relatively unaggressive nature of the disease and its reliance on rather exacting weather conditions for infection, we surmised that it is possible this disease has a long period of latent survival between initial arrival and becoming a thriving, established disease.