Predicting Mortality after Autologous Transplant: Development of a Novel Risk Score.

There have been several efforts to predict mortality after autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT), such as the hematopoietic cell transplant-comorbidity index (HCT-CI), described for allogeneic stem cell transplantation and validated for ASCT, but there is no composite score in the setting of ASCT combining comorbidities with other clinical characteristics. Our aim is to describe a comprehensive score combining comorbidities with other clinical factors and to analyze the impact of this score on nonrelapse mortality (NRM), overall survival (OS), and early morbidity endpoints (mechanical ventilation, shock or dialysis) after ASCT. For the training cohort, we retrospectively reviewed data of 2068 adult patients who received an ASCT in Argentina (October 2002 to June 2017) for multiple myeloma or lymphoma. For the validation cohort, we analyzed 2168 ASCTs performed in the Medical College of Wisconsin and Spanish stem cell transplant group (Grupo Español de Trasplante Hematopoyético (GETH)) (January 2012 to December 2018). We first performed a multivariate analysis for NRM in order to select and assign weight to the risk factors included in the score (male patients, aged 55 to 64 and ≥65 years, HCT-CI ≥3, Hodgkin lymphoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma). The hazard ratio for NRM increased proportionally with the score. Patients were grouped as low risk (LR) with a score of 0 to 1 (686, 33%), intermediate risk (IR) with a score of 2 to 3 (1109, 53%), high risk (HR) with a score of 4 (198, 10%), and very high risk (VHR) with a score of ≥5 (75, 4%). The score was associated with a progressive increase in all the early morbidity endpoints. Moreover, the score was significantly associated with early NRM (day 100: 1.5% versus 2.4% versus 7.6% versus 17.6%) as well as long term (1 to 3 years; 1.8% to 2.3% versus 3.8% to 4.9% versus 11.7% to 14.5% versus 25.0% to 27.4%, respectively; P< .0001) and OS (1 to 5 years; 94% to 73% versus 89% to 75% versus 76% to 47% versus 65% to 52% respectively; P < .0001). The score was validated in an independent cohort (N = 2168) and was significantly associated with early and late events. In conclusion, we developed and validated a novel score predicting NRM and OS in 2 large cohorts of more than 2000 autologous transplant patients. This tool can be useful for tailoring conditioning regimens or defining risk for transplant program decision making.

Haploidentical transplant in adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia in Argentina: a comparison with matched related and unrelated donors.

We aimed at analyzing the outcome of allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT) in adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), comparing Haploidentical (Haplo) with HLA-matched (sibling and unrelated) donors. Between 2008 and 2017, we collected data from 236 patients (median age 31 years; range 16-64; 90% HCT-CI 0-1) who underwent unmanipulated ASCT in first complete remission and subsequent remissions in 15 Argentinian centers. Donors were HLA-matched (n = 175; 74%) and Haplo (n = 61; 26%). Two-year overall survival (OS) was 55% (95% CI 47-63) for the HLA-matched group and 49% (95% CI 34-62) for the Haplo group (p = 0.351). For OS, crude HR, adjusted HR for covariates (HR 1.24; 95% CI 0.77-1.99; p = 0.363) and HR including a propensity score in the model (HR 1.22; 95% CI 0.71-2.08; p = 0.414) showed no impact of donor category on the OS. No difference was found in terms of nonrelapse mortality, relapse, leukemia-free survival, and grade 3-4 acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD); 2-year incidence of chronic GVHD was higher in HLA-matched vs Haplo group (p = 0.028). Patients with ALL who underwent ASCT were young subjects with low HCT-CI. In this setting, a Haplo donor represents an alternative widely available in the absence of an HLA-matched donor. Relapse remains a challenge for all donor categories.