Loss to follow-up among adults attending human immunodeficiency virus services in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

AIM: To assess the extent to which human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-diagnosed adults attending HIV-services in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland are lost to follow-up or attend services intermittently. METHODS: A cohort of HIV-diagnosed adults was created by linking records across the 1998 to 2007 national annual Survey of Prevalent HIV Infections Diagnosed. The records were also linked to the national HIV and acquired immune deficiency syndrome New Diagnoses Database (n = 61,495) and to Office for National Statistics death records. Patterns of HIV-service attendance were analyzed. RESULTS: On average, 90% of adults attending HIV-services in any one year attended the following year. Nearly 5% of adults attending services in any one year were lost to follow-up, a further 4% subsequently attended services intermittently, whereas less than 2% died. Cumulatively, 19% of adults seen for HIV care between 1998 and 2006 were lost to follow-up by the end of 2007. Factors associated with loss to follow-up included being the following: female; aged 15 to 34 years; black-African or "other" ethnicity; not on antiretroviral therapy; recently diagnosed; and infected outside the United Kingdom. CONCLUSIONS: Although the majority of HIV-diagnosed adults in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland attended HIV-services regularly, cumulatively nearly 1 in 5 adults were lost to follow-up between 1998 and 2007. Innovative strategies focusing on those most likely to drop out of regular care should be developed to maintain regular service engagement and to ensure optimal care.

Insights into the rise in HIV infections, 2001 to 2008: a Bayesian synthesis of prevalence evidence.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate trends in prevalence of HIV infection, undiagnosed and total, among adults aged 15-44 years in England and Wales since 2001. DESIGN: Multiple surveillance systems and survey data are available to inform different aspects of the HIV epidemic in England and Wales. To coherently and consistently combine this information to estimate trends in HIV prevalence, we apply a multiparameter evidence synthesis in a Bayesian statistical framework. METHODS: The study population is stratified by exposure group and region of residence. We synthesize data from behavioural and community surveys, unlinked anonymous seroprevalence surveys, and an annual survey of individuals with diagnosed HIV infection. Prevalence estimates are given with 95% credible intervals. RESULTS: The estimated number of prevalent HIV infections in 15-44-year-olds has increased from 32,400 (29,600-35,900) in 2001 to 54,500 (50,500-59,100) in 2008, corresponding to an estimated prevalence of 1.5 per 1000 (1.4-1.7) rising to 2.4 per 1000 (2.3-2.6) in 2008. A rise in prevalence of diagnosed infection contributes substantially to the increase. There is no evidence of a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of undiagnosed infection. The proportion of infections that are diagnosed has therefore also increased. CONCLUSION: Although the increase in the proportion of infections that are diagnosed is encouraging, the rise in HIV prevalence and lack of evidence of a decrease in prevalence of undiagnosed infection suggest that diagnosis rates are not high enough to reduce the pool of individuals unaware of their infection and that new infections must be occurring.

Does the recent increase in HIV diagnoses among men who have sex with men in the UK reflect a rise in HIV incidence or increased uptake of HIV testing?

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the increase in HIV diagnoses since 1997 among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the UK reflects a rise in HIV incidence or an increase in HIV testing. METHODS: Estimates of HIV incidence were derived using data from UK HIV surveillance systems (HIV diagnoses; CD4 surveillance; unlinked anonymous surveys) for 1997-2004. Data on HIV testing were provided by KC60 statutory returns, voluntary testing and unlinked anonymous surveys in sentinel genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics. RESULTS: HIV diagnoses among MSM in the UK rose by 54% between 1997 and 2004 (from 1382 to 2124), with variation by age and geographical location. The number of HIV diagnoses among MSM <35 years of age in London showed no increase, but in all other groups it increased. Throughout the UK, uptake of HIV testing increased significantly among MSM attending GUM clinics between 1997 and 2004, including "at-risk" MSM (p<0.001). Direct incidence estimates (serological testing algorithm for recent HIV seroconversion assay) provided no evidence of a statistically significant increase or decrease in HIV incidence. Indirect estimates suggested that there may have been a rise in HIV incidence, but these estimates were influenced by the increased uptake of HIV testing. CONCLUSIONS: The number of HIV diagnoses increased among MSM in the UK between 1997 and 2004, except among younger MSM in London, in whom there was no change. The increase in HIV diagnoses among MSM in the UK since 1997 seems to reflect an increase in HIV testing rather than a rise in HIV incidence.

The late diagnosis and consequent short-term mortality of HIV-infected heterosexuals (England and Wales, 2000-2004).

OBJECTIVES: To describe the proportion of HIV-infected heterosexual individuals diagnosed late and estimate how much mortality could have been prevented by earlier diagnosis. DESIGN: A population-based study using surveillance reports from England and Wales. METHODS: Calculation of proportions diagnosed late (CD4 cell count < 200 cells/mul) and short-term mortality (death within a year of diagnosis). RESULTS: A total of 16 375 heterosexual individuals were diagnosed with HIV (2000-2004): 10 503 with CD4 cell counts available at that time; 42% (4425) were diagnosed late. Late diagnosis increased with age (P < 0.01). One fifth of women diagnosed antenatally were diagnosed late compared with 42% of other women and 49% of men; 70% of all heterosexuals diagnosed were black Africans, born and infected in Africa. Of those, at least 40% were recent arrivals to the UK, and twice as many were diagnosed late as black-African heterosexuals infected in the UK. Short-term mortality was 3.2% (491/15 523); 6.1% among those diagnosed late and 0.7% among others (P < 0.01). Short-term mortality was lower among black-African compared with white heterosexuals (3.1 versus 4.5%; P < 0.01) because of diagnosis at a younger age. Earlier diagnosis would have reduced short-term mortality by 56% (249 fewer deaths) and all mortality by 32% between 2000 and 2004. CONCLUSION: Groups at high risk of late diagnosis should be targeted for health promotion activities, opportunistic screening, and removal of any barriers to testing. HIV testing in a variety of settings would reduce missed diagnoses and costs. New patient checks in primary care may provide the earliest opportunity to diagnose HIV infection among recent arrivals to the UK.

No time to wait: how many HIV-infected homosexual men are diagnosed late and consequently die? (England and Wales, 1993-2002).

OBJECTIVES: To present national trends of the estimated number and proportion of late HIV diagnoses and short-term mortality following diagnosis among men who have had sex with men (MSM). To determine separately risk factors for late diagnosis and short-term mortality. METHODS: Analysis of national HIV/AIDS case reports of new diagnoses linked to CD4 cell counts from the CD4 Surveillance Scheme. Inverse probability weighting adjusted for individuals with no CD4 cell count at diagnosis. Outcomes were late diagnosis (CD4 cell count <200 x 10(6) cells/l at diagnosis) and short-term mortality (death within 1 year of diagnosis). RESULTS: Of 14,158 new diagnoses, 31% were estimated as late diagnoses. Despite a decreasing trend (P trend <0.01) an estimated 430 (25%) MSM were still diagnosed late in 2001. Late diagnosis disproportionately affected individuals diagnosed outside London, of non-white ethnicity, and of older age. There were 710 (5.0% of 14 158) deaths within a year of HIV diagnosis. Estimated short-term mortality was 14% for MSM diagnosed late and 1% for other MSM (adjusted odds ratio, 10.8; 95% confidence interval, 7.7-15.9). Short-term mortality declined concurrently with availability of highly active antiretroviral therapy and was independently associated with age and diagnosis outside London but not ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: The continued late diagnosis of one in four MSM means these individuals lose the option to start therapy early, miss opportunities to prevent further transmission and are approximately 10 times more likely to die within a year of diagnosis. Early diagnosis of all MSM in 2001 could have reduced short-term mortality by 84% and all mortality in that year by 22%.