Serial D-dimers after anticoagulant cessation in unprovoked venous thromboembolism: Data from the REVERSE cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: While several risk stratification tools have been developed to predict the risk of recurrence in patients with an unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE), only 1 in 4 patients are categorized as low-risk. Rather than a one-time measure, serial D-dimer assessment holds promise to enhance the prediction of VTE recurrence after oral anticoagulant (OAC) cessation. METHODS: Using the REVERSE cohort, we compared VTE recurrence among patients with normal D-dimer levels (<490 ng/mL among males under age 70, <500 ng/mL in others) at OAC cessation and 1-month follow-up, to those with an elevated D-dimer level at either timepoint. We also evaluated VTE recurrence based on absolute increase in D-dimer levels between the two timepoints (e.g., ∆D-dimer) according to quartiles. RESULTS: Among 214 patients with serial D-dimer levels measured at OAC cessation and 1-month follow-up, an elevated D-dimer level at either timepoint was associated with a numerically higher risk of recurrent VTE than patients with normal D-dimer levels at both timepoints (6.9 % vs. 4.2 % per year, hazard ratio 1.6; 95 % CI 0.9-2.7). Among women with <2 HERDOO2 criteria, a normal D-dimer level at both timepoints predicted a very low risk of recurrent VTE during follow-up (0.8 % per year, 95 % CI 0.1-2.8). Irrespective of baseline value, recurrent VTE risk was only 3 % per year (95 % CI 1.4-5.6) among patients in the lowest ∆D-dimer quartile. CONCLUSION: Serial normal D-dimer levels have the potential to identify patients at a low risk of recurrent VTE. In addition, ∆D-dimer, irrespective of its elevation above cutoff threshold, may predict recurrent VTE.

The risk of major bleeding in patients with factor V Leiden or prothrombin G20210A gene mutation while on extended anticoagulant treatment for venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: Thrombophilia predisposes to venous thromboembolism (VTE) because of acquired or hereditary factors. Among them, it has been suggested that gene mutations of the factor V Leiden (FVL) or prothrombin G20210A mutation (PGM) might reduce the risk of bleeding, but little data exist for patients treated using anticoagulants. OBJECTIVES: To assess whether thrombophilia is protective against bleeding. METHODS: This multicentre, multinational, prospective cohort study evaluated adults receiving long-term anticoagulants after a VTE event. We analyzed the incidence of major bleeding as the primary outcome, according to the genotype for FVL and PGM (wild-type and heterozygous/homozygous carriers). RESULTS: Of 2260 patients with genotype testing, during a median follow-up of 3 years, 106 patients experienced a major bleeding event (17 intracranial and 7 fatal). Among 439 carriers of FVL, 19 experienced major bleeding and there were no differences between any mutation vs wild-type (hazard ratio [HR], 0.89 [0.53-1.49]; p = .66). The comparison of major bleeding events between the 158 patients with any-PGM mutation (heterozygous or homozygous) vs wild-type also showed a nonstatistically significant difference with HR of 0.53 (0.19-1.43), p = .21. However, multivariate analysis demonstrated that major bleeds or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding were statistically less likely for patients with either FVL and/or PGM compared with patients with both wild-type factor V and prothrombin genes (HR, 0.73; 95% CI = 0.55-0.97; p = .03). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that thrombophilia, defined as the presence of either FVL or the prothrombin G20210A mutation, is related with a lower rate of major/clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding while on anticoagulants in the extended treatment for VTE.

Predicting major bleeding during extended anticoagulation for unprovoked or weakly provoked venous thromboembolism.

No clinical prediction model has been specifically developed or validated to identify patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) who are at high risk of major bleeding during extended anticoagulation. In a prospective multinational cohort study of patients with unprovoked VTE receiving extended anticoagulation after completing ≥3 months of initial treatment, we derived a new clinical prediction model using a multivariable Cox regression model based on 22 prespecified candidate predictors for the primary outcome of major bleeding. This model was then compared with modified versions of 5 existing clinical scores. A total of 118 major bleeding events occurred in 2516 patients (annual risk, 1.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-2.1). The incidences of major bleeding events per 100 person-years in high-risk and non-high-risk patients, respectively, were 3.9 (95% CI, 3.0-5.1) and 1.1 (0.8-1.4) using the newly derived creatinine, hemoglobin, age, and use of antiplatelet agent (CHAP) model; 3.3 (2.6-4.1) and 1.0 (0.7-1.3) using modified ACCP score, 5.3 (0.6-19.2) and 1.7 (1.4-2.0) using modified RIETE score, 3.1 (2.3-3.9) and 1.1 (0.9-1.5) using modified VTE-BLEED score, 5.2 (3.3-7.8) and 1.5 (1.2-1.8) using modified HAS-BLED score, and 4.8 (1.3-12.4) and 1.7 (1.4-2.0) using modified outpatient bleeding index score. Modified versions of the ACCP, VTE-BLEED, and HAS-BLED scores help identify patients with unprovoked VTE who are at high risk of major bleeding and should be considered for discontinuation of anticoagulation after 3 to 6 months of initial treatment. The CHAP model may further improve estimation of bleeding risk by using continuous predictor variables, but external validation is required before its implementation in clinical practice.

Colour Doppler ultrasound and the giant cell arteritis probability score for the diagnosis of giant cell arteritis: a Canadian single-centre experience.

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to compare the accuracy of colour Doppler ultrasonography (CDUS) and temporal artery biopsy (TAB) to establish the final diagnosis of GCA and to determine how the GCA probability score (GCAPS) performs as a risk stratification tool. METHODS: Descriptive statistics were performed on a retrospective cohort of patients referred to our vasculitis referral centre between 1 July 2017 and 1 October 2020 for suspected GCA. CDUS, TAB, centre-specific TAB (vasculitis centre vs referring hospitals) and GCAPS were compared against the final diagnosis of GCA as determined by a GCA expert; CDUS was also compared with TAB results. RESULTS: Data from 198 patients were included: 60 patients with GCA and 138 patients without GCA. Sixty-two patients had a TAB. Using the final diagnosis by a GCA expert as a reference, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 93.3%, 98.5%, 96.6% and 97.1% for CDUS and 69.2%, 100%, 100% and 81.8% for TAB, respectively. The false-negative rate was 6.7% for CDUS and 30.8% for TAB. False-negative TAB mostly occurred when performed in referring hospitals (57.1%) as opposed to our vasculitis centre (21.1%). With a cut-off at 9.5 points, sensitivity for GCAPS was 98.3% and specificity 74.3%. CONCLUSION: CDUS of the temporal and axillary arteries showed a high sensitivity and specificity and helped to diagnose GCA in patients with negative TAB. We validated that GCAPS is a useful clinical tool, with a score of <9.5 making the diagnosis of GCA improbable.

Long-term risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism after a first contraceptive-related event: Data from REVERSE cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: The risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) after combined oral contraceptive (COC) use is variably reported. We assessed the long-term risk of recurrent VTE in women on COC at the time of a first VTE, in comparison to women without COC use. Our secondary aim assessed the impact of COC use on the recurrent VTE risk in high-risk and low-risk hyperpigmentation, edema, or redness in either leg; D-dimer level ≥250 µg/L; obesity with body mass index ≥30; or older age, ≥65 years (HERDOO2) subgroups. METHODS: The REVERSE cohort study derived the HERDOO2 clinical decision rule to predict recurrent VTE in patients who discontinued anticoagulation after 5-7 months for a first unprovoked VTE. Incidence rates of recurrent VTE among women with and without COC exposure were calculated as the number of recurrent VTE over the number of person-years of follow-up, and Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare risks between groups. RESULTS: The risk of recurrent VTE among COC users was 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.3-2.9) per patient-year as compared with 3.2% per patient-year (95% CI 2.4-4.3) among nonusers (hazard ratio 0.37; 95% CI 0.1-1.0). Women who were COC users and high risk by HERDOO2 score had a recurrence rate of 3.5% (95% CI 0.4-12.5) compared with 6.1% (95% CI 4.3-8.5) among women who were non-COC users and at high risk by HERDOO2 score (HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.1-2.5). CONCLUSIONS: Women who were COC users at the time of an otherwise unprovoked VTE event had a lower VTE recurrence rate during long-term follow-up, compared with nonusers. The use of HERDOO2 rule may help identify higher risk women with COC use.

Rivaroxaban Compared to Placebo for the Treatment of Leg Superficial Vein Thrombosis: A Randomized Trial.

The role of rivaroxaban in the treatment of leg superficial venous thrombosis (SVT) is uncertain. This article aims to determine if rivaroxaban is an effective and safe treatment for leg SVT. Patients with symptomatic leg SVT of at least 5 cm length were randomized to 45 days of rivaroxaban 10 mg daily or to placebo, and followed for a total of 90 days. Treatment failure (required a nonstudy anticoagulant; had proximal deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism; or had surgery for SVT) at 90 days was the primary efficacy outcome. Secondary efficacy outcomes included leg pain severity, and venous disease-specific and general health-related quality of life over 90 days. Major bleeding at 90 days was the primary safety outcome. Poor enrollment led to the trial being stopped after 85 of the planned 600 patients were randomized to rivaroxaban (n = 43) or placebo (n = 42). One rivaroxaban and five placebo patients had a treatment failure by 90 days (absolute risk reduction = 9.0%, 95% confidence interval: -22 to 5.9%). Leg pain improvement did not differ at 7 (p = 0.16) or 45 days (p = 0.89), but was greater with rivaroxaban at 90 days (p = 0.011). There was no difference in venous disease-specific (p = 0.99) or general health-related (p = 0.37) quality of life over 45 days. There were no major bleeds or deaths in either group. There were no identifiable differences in efficacy or safety between rivaroxaban and placebo in patients with symptomatic SVT but comparisons were undermined by a much smaller than planned sample size (NCT1499953).

Residual pulmonary embolism as a predictor for recurrence after a first unprovoked episode: Results from the REVERSE cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The optimal duration of oral anticoagulant therapy after a first, unprovoked venous thromboembolism is controversial due to tightly balanced risks and benefits of indefinite anticoagulation. Risk stratification tools may assist in decision making. OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the relationship between residual pulmonary embolism assessed by baseline ventilation-perfusion scan after completion of 5-7months of oral anticoagulant therapy and the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism in patients with the first episode of unprovoked pulmonary embolism. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre prospective cohort study of participants with a first, unprovoked venous thromboembolism enrolled after the completion of 5-7months of oral anticoagulation therapy. The participants completed a mean 18-month follow-up. Participants with pulmonary embolism had baseline ventilation-perfusion scan before discontinuation of oral anticoagulant therapy and the percentage of vascular obstruction on baseline ventilation-perfusion scan was determined. During follow-up after discontinuation of oral anticoagulant therapy, all episodes of suspected recurrent venous thromboembolism were independently adjudicated with reference to baseline imaging. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: During follow-up, 24 of 239 (10.0%) participants with an index event of isolated pulmonary embolism or pulmonary embolism associated with deep vein thrombosis and central assessment of percentage of vascular obstruction on baseline ventilation-perfusion scan had confirmed recurrent venous thromboembolism. As compared to participants with no residual pulmonary embolism on baseline ventilation-perfusion scan, the hazard ratio for recurrent venous thromboembolism was 2.0 (95% CI 0.5-7.3) for participants with percentage of vascular obstruction of 0.1%-4.9%, 2.1 (95% CI 0.5-7.8) for participants with percentage vascular obstruction of 5.0%-9.9% and 5.3 (95% CI 1.8-15.4) for participants with percentage vascular obstruction greater than or equal to 10%. CONCLUSIONS: Residual pulmonary embolism assessed by pulmonary vascular obstruction on baseline ventilation-perfusion performed after 5-7months of oral anticoagulant therapy for the first episode of unprovoked pulmonary embolism was associated with a statistically significant higher risk of subsequent recurrent venous thromboembolism. Percentage of pulmonary vascular obstruction assessment by ventilation-perfusion scans maybe a useful tool to help guide the duration of oral anticoagulant therapy after a first unprovoked pulmonary embolism. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00261014.

Long-term risk of venous thrombosis after stopping anticoagulants for a first unprovoked event: A multi-national cohort.

BACKGROUND: Choosing short-term (3-6 months) or indefinite anticoagulation after a first unprovoked venous thromboembolic event (VTE) is a common and difficult clinical decision. The long-term absolute risk of recurrent VTE after a first unprovoked VTE, in all patients and sub-groups, is not well established, hindering decision making. METHODS: We conducted a multi-center multi-national prospective cohort study in first unprovoked VTE patients to establish the long-term risk of recurrent VTE after short-term anticoagulation in first unprovoked VTE patients (and sub-groups).We followed patients for symptomatic suspected VTE off of OAT. Suspected recurrent VTE was investigated with reference to baseline imaging and then independently and blindly adjudicated. FINDINGS: We recruited 663 participants between October, 2001 and March 2006 with the last follow-up in April 2014. During a mean 5.0 years of follow-up, 165/663 suspected VTE (in 408 patients) were adjudicated as recurrent VTE resulting in an annualized risk of recurrent VTE of 5.0% (95% CI: 4.2-5.8%) with a cumulative risk of 29.6% at 8 years. Men had a 7.6% (95% CI: 6.3-9.2%) annual risk of recurrent VTE. High risk women (2 or more HERDOO2 points; see text) had an annual risk of recurrent VTE of 5.9% (95% CI: 4.2-8.1%). Low risk women (1 or 0 HERDOO2 points) had 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6-2.0%) annual risk of recurrent VTE with a cumulative risk of 8.7% at 8 years. INTERPRETATION: Men and high risk women with unprovoked VTE should be considered for long-term anticoagulant therapy given a high risk of recurrent VTE after long-term follow-up. Women with a low HERDOO2 score may be able to safely discontinue anticoagulants. FUNDING: This study was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (Grant # MOP 64319) and Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario (Grant # NA 6771). Registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00261014.

Screening for Occult Cancer in Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism may be the earliest sign of cancer. Currently, there is a great diversity in practices regarding screening for occult cancer in a person who has an unprovoked venous thromboembolism. We sought to assess the efficacy of a screening strategy for occult cancer that included comprehensive computed tomography (CT) of the abdomen and pelvis in patients who had a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, open-label, randomized, controlled trial in Canada. Patients were randomly assigned to undergo limited occult-cancer screening (basic blood testing, chest radiography, and screening for breast, cervical, and prostate cancer) or limited occult-cancer screening in combination with CT. The primary outcome measure was confirmed cancer that was missed by the screening strategy and detected by the end of the 1-year follow-up period. RESULTS: Of the 854 patients who underwent randomization, 33 (3.9%) had a new diagnosis of occult cancer between randomization and the 1-year follow-up: 14 of the 431 patients (3.2%) in the limited-screening group and 19 of the 423 patients (4.5%) in the limited-screening-plus-CT group (P=0.28). In the primary outcome analysis, 4 occult cancers (29%) were missed by the limited screening strategy, whereas 5 (26%) were missed by the strategy of limited screening plus CT (P=1.0). There was no significant difference between the two study groups in the mean time to a cancer diagnosis (4.2 months in the limited-screening group and 4.0 months in the limited-screening-plus-CT group, P=0.88) or in cancer-related mortality (1.4% and 0.9%, P=0.75). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of occult cancer was low among patients with a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism. Routine screening with CT of the abdomen and pelvis did not provide a clinically significant benefit. (Funded by the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada; SOME ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00773448.).

Interrater agreement for two systems used to determine the probability of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia.

PURPOSE: The interrater reliability of the 4T's method and the HIT expert probability (HEP) score for clinical evaluation of suspected heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) was investigated. METHODS: Patients hospitalized over a three-year period who were tested for HIT via anti-platelet factor 4 (anti-PF4) antigen assay were identified using laboratory data; 127 patient cases met the study inclusion criteria. Nine clinical pharmacists with expertise in HIT management evaluated the 127 cases using two pretest scoring systems: the 4T's score and the HEP score. Each case was independently evaluated using both 4T's and HEP scores. The primary endpoint was interrater agreement of overall 4T's and HEP scores and individual item scores. RESULTS: Raw agreement of values assigned by the two raters for each of the four items comprising the 4T's score ranged from 0.54 to 0.86, with agreement of 0.63 for final patient categorizations. Raw agreement of rater weightings of the eight HEP scoring items ranged from 0.34 to 1.0; for dichotomization of patients at the suggested screening cutoff value (>2.0), agreement was 0.65. Kappa coefficients were 0.15-0.45 for 4T's item scores and 0.17-0.70 for HEP score item scores. With both scoring systems, low rater agreement mainly related to determination of the timing of thrombocytopenia and possible other causes of the disorder. CONCLUSION: In a retrospective study, inter-rater agreement in scoring of HIT probability via the 4T's and HEP scoring systems was relatively low. The HEP score did not increase interrater reliability or correlation with anti-PF4 antibodies compared with the 4T's score.

Compression stockings to prevent post-thrombotic syndrome: a randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS) is a common and burdensome complication of deep venous thrombosis (DVT). Previous trials suggesting benefit of elastic compression stockings (ECS) to prevent PTS were small, single-centre studies without placebo control. We aimed to assess the efficacy of ECS, compared with placebo stockings, for the prevention of PTS. METHODS: We did a multicentre randomised placebo-controlled trial of active versus placebo ECS used for 2 years to prevent PTS after a first proximal DVT in centres in Canada and the USA. Patients were randomly assigned to study groups with a web-based randomisation system. Patients presenting with a first symptomatic, proximal DVT were potentially eligible to participate. They were excluded if the use of compression stockings was contraindicated, they had an expected lifespan of less than 6 months, geographical inaccessibility precluded return for follow-up visits, they were unable to apply stockings, or they received thrombolytic therapy for the initial treatment of acute DVT. The primary outcome was PTS diagnosed at 6 months or later using Ginsberg's criteria (leg pain and swelling of ≥1 month duration). We used a modified intention to treat Cox regression analysis, supplemented by a prespecified per-protocol analysis of patients who reported frequent use of their allocated treatment. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00143598, and Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN71334751. FINDINGS: From 2004 to 2010, 410 patients were randomly assigned to receive active ECS and 396 placebo ECS. The cumulative incidence of PTS was 14·2% in active ECS versus 12·7% in placebo ECS (hazard ratio adjusted for centre 1·13, 95% CI 0·73-1·76; p=0·58). Results were similar in a prespecified per-protocol analysis of patients who reported frequent use of stockings. INTERPRETATION: ECS did not prevent PTS after a first proximal DVT, hence our findings do not support routine wearing of ECS after DVT. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Non-OO blood type influences the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism. A cohort study.

The role of ABO blood type as a risk factor for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with a first unprovoked VTE who complete oral anticoagulation therapy is unknown. The aim of this study was to determine if non-OO blood type is a risk factor for recurrent VTE in patients with a first unprovoked VTE who completed 5-7 months of anticoagulant therapy. In an ongoing cohort study of patients with unprovoked VTE who discontinued oral anticoagulation after 5-7 months of therapy, six single nucleotide polymorphisms sites were tested to determine ABO blood type using banked DNA. The main outcome was objectively proven recurrent VTE. Mean follow-up for the cohort was 4.19 years (SD 2.16). During 1,553 patient-years of follow-up, 101 events occurred in 380 non-OO patients (6.5 events per 100 patient years; 95% CI 5.3-7.7) compared to 14 events during 560 patient years of follow-up in 129 OO patients (2.5 per 100 patient years; 95% CI 1.2-3.7), the adjusted hazard ratio was 1.98 (1.2-3.8). In conclusion, non-OO blood type is associated with a statistically significant and clinically relevant increased risk of recurrent VTE following discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy for a first episode of unprovoked VTE.

Risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism after a first oestrogen-associated episode. Data from the REVERSE cohort study.

The use of exogenous oestrogen in women with otherwise unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) could be considered sufficient explanation to classify VTE as provoked if the risk of recurrent VTE after 3-6 months of anticoagulant treatment is similar to the risk of recurrent VTE observed after a surgery or prolonged immobilisation. Our objective was to assess the risk of recurrent VTE in women after a first unprovoked episode on oestrogen. The REVERSE study is a cohort study of patients with a first unprovoked VTE treated with anticoagulant treatment for 5-7 months. The risk of recurrent VTE during follow-up was compared between women users and non users of oestrogen at the time of index VTE. Among the 646 patients included, 314 were women, of them 67 were current users of oestrogen at the time of their VTE: 49 were on oral contraceptives and 18 on post-menopausal hormone replacement therapy (HRT). No significant association was found between oestrogen exposure, either oral contraceptives or HRT, and a lower risk of recurrent VTE after adjustment for age, or analysis restricted to women in the same age range as oestrogen contraceptives and HRT users, respectively. The risk of recurrent VTE is low in women after a first otherwise unprovoked oestrogen-associated VTE. However, this risk is not significantly lower than in women whose VTE was not related to oestrogen use.

Identifying unprovoked thromboembolism patients at low risk for recurrence who can discontinue anticoagulant therapy.

BACKGROUND: Whether to continue oral anticoagulant therapy beyond 6 months after an "unprovoked" venous thromboembolism is controversial. We sought to determine clinical predictors to identify patients who are at low risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism who could safely discontinue oral anticoagulants. METHODS: In a multicentre prospective cohort study, 646 participants with a first, unprovoked major venous thromboembolism were enrolled over a 4-year period. Of these, 600 participants completed a mean 18-month follow-up in September 2006. We collected data for 69 potential predictors of recurrent venous thromboembolism while patients were taking oral anticoagulation therapy (5-7 months after initiation). During follow-up after discontinuing oral anticoagulation therapy, all episodes of suspected recurrent venous thromboembolism were independently adjudicated. We performed a multivariable analysis of predictor variables (p < 0.10) with high interobserver reliability to derive a clinical decision rule. RESULTS: We identified 91 confirmed episodes of recurrent venous thromboembolism during follow-up after discontinuing oral anticoagulation therapy (annual risk 9.3%, 95% CI 7.7%-11.3%). Men had a 13.7% (95% CI 10.8%-17.0%) annual risk. There was no combination of clinical predictors that satisfied our criteria for identifying a low-risk subgroup of men. Fifty-two percent of women had 0 or 1 of the following characteristics: hyperpigmentation, edema or redness of either leg; D-dimer > or = 250 microg/L while taking warfarin; body mass index > or = 30 kg/m(2); or age > or = 65 years. These women had an annual risk of 1.6% (95% CI 0.3%-4.6%). Women who had 2 or more of these findings had an annual risk of 14.1% (95% CI 10.9%-17.3%). INTERPRETATION: Women with 0 or 1 risk factor may safely discontinue oral anticoagulant therapy after 6 months of therapy following a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism. This criterion does not apply to men.

Diagnosing pulmonary embolism in outpatients with clinical assessment, D-dimer measurement, venous ultrasound, and helical computed tomography: a multicenter management study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate a diagnostic strategy for pulmonary embolism that combined clinical assessment, plasma D-dimer measurement, lower limb venous ultrasonography, and helical computed tomography (CT). METHODS: A cohort of 965 consecutive patients presenting to the emergency departments of three general and teaching hospitals with clinically suspected pulmonary embolism underwent sequential noninvasive testing. Clinical probability was assessed by a prediction rule combined with implicit judgment. All patients were followed for 3 months. RESULTS: A normal D-dimer level (<500 microg/L by a rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) ruled out venous thromboembolism in 280 patients (29%), and finding a deep vein thrombosis by ultrasonography established the diagnosis in 92 patients (9.5%). Helical CT was required in only 593 patients (61%) and showed pulmonary embolism in 124 patients (12.8%). Pulmonary embolism was considered ruled out in the 450 patients (46.6%) with a negative ultrasound and CT scan and a low-to-intermediate clinical probability. The 8 patients with a negative ultrasound and CT scan despite a high clinical probability proceeded to pulmonary angiography (positive: 2; negative: 6). Helical CT was inconclusive in 11 patients (pulmonary embolism: 4; no pulmonary embolism: 7). The overall prevalence of pulmonary embolism was 23%. Patients classified as not having pulmonary embolism were not anticoagulated during follow-up and had a 3-month thromboembolic risk of 1.0% (95% confidence interval: 0.5% to 2.1%). CONCLUSION: A noninvasive diagnostic strategy combining clinical assessment, D-dimer measurement, ultrasonography, and helical CT yielded a diagnosis in 99% of outpatients suspected of pulmonary embolism, and appeared to be safe, provided that CT was combined with ultrasonography to rule out the disease.

[Clinical evaluation of thrombo-embolic venous disease]. / Evaluation clinique de la maladie veineuse thrombo-embolique.

Clinical manifestations of venous thromboembolism are often subtle or misleading. Yet it is a potentially fatal condition. Although the symptoms and signs at presentation have a poor sensitivity and specificity when considered singly, the physician can accurately assess a clinical probability based on the history, the risk factors, the physical examination and some simple laboratory exams. This essential step allows us to identify a low risk group of patients which will benefit of a non invasive diagnostic strategy. More recently explicit prediction rules were proposed to offset the lack of standardization of this clinical assessment. These new didactic tools can simplify clinical evaluation. Nevertheless, their comparison to implicit evaluation reveals that they should be complemented by the physician's judgement.

Comparison of two clinical prediction rules and implicit assessment among patients with suspected pulmonary embolism.

PURPOSE: Two prediction rules for pulmonary embolism have been described recently: the Wells' rule, which was derived from both outpatients and inpatients, and which includes a subjective element; and the Geneva rule, which is entirely standardized and is suitable only for emergency department patients. We compared the predictive accuracy and the concordance of the two methods, as well as the Geneva score overridden by implicit clinical judgment. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We studied 277 consecutive patients admitted to the emergency departments of three teaching hospitals. Clinical probability was assessed prospectively with the Geneva score and the Geneva score overridden by implicit clinical judgment in case of a disagreement. The Wells' score was calculated retrospectively. RESULTS: The three methods classified similar proportions of patients as having a low (53% to 58% of patients), intermediate (37% to 41% of patients), or high (4% to 10% of patients) probability of pulmonary embolism. The actual frequencies of pulmonary embolism in each category were also similar (5% to 13% in the low, 38% to 40% in the intermediate, and 67% to 91% in the high clinical probability categories). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed no difference between the two prediction rules, but the Geneva score overridden by implicit evaluation had a marginally higher accuracy. Concordance between the two prediction rules was fair (kappa coefficient = 0.43). Clinicians disagreed with the Geneva score in 21% of patients (n = 57). CONCLUSIONS: The two prediction rules had a similar predictive accuracy for pulmonary embolism among emergency department patients. The Geneva rule appears to be more accurate when combined with clinical judgment, although it does not apply to inpatients.