Sustained Return of Spontaneous Circulation Following Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest; Developing a Predictive Model Based on Multivariate Analysis.

Introduction: Identifying the predictive factors of sustained return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) will be helpful in management of these patients. This study aimed to develop a predictive model in this regard. Methods: In a retrospective observational study, data of adult patients with OHCA, were collected from Vajira emergency medical services patient care report. Multiple logistic regression analysis with a regression coefficient was used to develop a predictive score for a sustained ROSC at the scene. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to validate the accuracy of the predictive score for a sustained ROSC. Results: Independent factors associated with a sustained ROSC included cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) duration < 30 min (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)= 5.05, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.34-7.65; p < 0.001); advanced airway management with an endotracheal tube (AOR= 3.06, 95% CI: 1.77-5.31; p < 0.001); advanced airway management with laryngeal mask airway (AOR= 3.42, 95% CI: 1.02-11.46; p = 0.046); defibrillation (AOR = 2.05, 95% CI: 1.31-3.2; p = 0.002); Capillary blood glucose (CBG) level < 150 mg% (AOR= 1.95, 95% CI: 1.05-3.65; p = 0.035); CBG at least 150 mg% (AOR= 2.87, 95% CI: 1.56-5.29; p = 0.001); pupil reflex (AOR = 2.96, 95% CI: 1.1-7.96; p = 0.032); and response time at most 8 min (AOR= 1.66, 95% CI: 1.07-2.57; p = 0.023). These were developed into the pupil reflex, response time, advanced airway management, defibrillation, CBG, and CPR duration (PRAD-CCPR) score. The most accurate cutoff point of score using Youden's index was ≥ 6 with AUC of 0.759 (95% CI: 0.715-0.802; p < 0.001), sensitivity of 62.0% (95% CI: 51.2-71.9%), specificity of 75.7% (95% CI: 69.4-81.2%), positive predictive value of 51.8% (95% CI: 40.9-62.3%), and negative predictive value of 79.5% (95% CI: 73.5-84.6%). Conclusion: An optimal PRAD-CCPR score of ≥ 6 provides an acceptable accuracy of 0.759 with sensitivity of 62.0% and specificity of 75.7% in prediction of sustained ROSC following OHCA. This predictive score might help CPR commanders to prognosticate the outcome of patients with OHCA at the scene.

The comparison of emergency medical service responses to and outcomes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the format of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) management was modified. Therefore, this study compared the response time and survival at the scene of patients with OHCA managed by emergency medical services (EMS) before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand. METHODS: This retrospective, observational study used EMS patient care reports to collect data on adult patients with OHCA coded with cardiac arrest. Before and during the COVID-19 pandemic was defined as the periods of January 1, 2018-December 31, 2019, and January 1, 2020-December 31, 2021, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 513 and 482 patients were treated for OHCA before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, respectively, showing a decrease of 6% (% change difference =- 6.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] - 4.1, - 8.5). However, the average number of patients treated per week did not differ (4.83 ± 2.49 vs. 4.65 ± 2.06; p value = 0.700). While the mean response times did not significantly differ (11.87 ± 6.31 vs. 12.21 ± 6.50 min; p value = 0.400), the mean on-scene and hospital arrival times were significantly higher during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with before by 6.32 min (95% CI 4.36-8.27; p value < 0.001), and 6.88 min (95% CI 4.55-9.22; p value < 0.001), respectively. Multivariable analysis revealed that patients with OHCA had a 2.27 times higher rate of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) (adjusted odds ratio = 2.27, 95% CI 1.50-3.42, p value < 0.001), and a 0.84 times lower mortality rate (adjusted odds ratio = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.58-1.22, p value = 0.362) during the COVID-19 pandemic period compared with that before the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: In the present study, there was no significant difference between the response time of patients with OHCA managed by EMS before and during COVID-19 pandemic period; however, markedly longer on-scene and hospital arrival times and higher ROSC rates were observed during the COVID-19 pandemic than those in the period before the pandemic.