Statistical modelling of CO and NO2 concentrations in the Athens area. Evaluation of emission abatement policies.

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: This paper describes a statistical modelling approach, suggested as a policy tool in the Athens area for the assessment of the emissions reduction level required to meet the air quality standards for two criteria air pollutants. METHODS: More than ten years of hourly CO and NOx-NO2 concentration data measured by the monitoring network of the Hellenic Ministry for the Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works were analyzed and the original dataset has been reduced using a data evaluation procedure. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Seasonal pollutant concentration trends suggested that the reduction of CO and NOx concentrations observed in the beginning of the '90s is almost entirely attributed to the increase of the catalyst-equipped cars during this period. The numerical parameters of an empirical model relating EU standard exceedances with mean annual concentrations were defined and the model was validated using datasets from years that were not used for the estimation of these parameters. This model was used in conjunction with a roll-back equation as a policy tool for the assessment of the effect of different CO and NOx emissions reduction scenarios on air quality standard compliance for CO and NO2. Results predicted with this empirical modelling approach were assessed with monitored data averaged over a 3-year period, giving satisfactory results. CONCLUSION: A methodology suggested for assessing the effects of different emissions reduction scenarios on air quality standard attainment was successfully applied for CO and NO2 in the Athens area. RECOMMENDATION AND PERSPECTIVE: The proposed methodology can provide a useful tool for the evaluation of policies already in progress as well as the development of future policies for emissions reduction in urban areas with similar characteristics, aiming at air quality standard compliance on a timely manner, Such a methodology could be applied in other urban areas of Greece characterized by dense traffic, therefore assisting the development of national policies in relation to air pollutants for which standard exceedances occur.

Development of an aggregate Air Quality Index for an urban Mediterranean agglomeration: relation to potential health effects.

It is very useful for the authorities and the people to have daily easy understandable information about the levels of air pollution and the proper measures to be taken for the protection of human health. In this paper we develop an aggregate Air Quality Index (AQI) based on the combined effects of five criteria pollutants (CO, SO2, NO2, O3 and PM10) taking into account the European standards. We evaluate it for each monitoring station and for the whole area of Athens, Greece, an area with serious air pollution problems. A comparison was made with a modified version of Environmental Protection Agency/USA (USEPA) maximum value AQI model adjusted for European conditions. Hourly data of air pollutants from 4 monitoring stations, available during 1983-1999, were analysed for the development of the proposed index. The analysis reveals the Athenian population exposure reaches high levels and during last years a gradual increase of days with unhealthy conditions was detected. The proposed aggregate model estimates more effectively the exposure of citizens comparing with the modified USEPA maximum value model, because counts the impact of all the pollutants measured. Towards the informing and protection of the citizens in an urban agglomeration this model advantages as a political and administrative tool for the design of abatement strategies and effective measures of intervention.

On the relation between seasonal synoptic circulation types and spatial air quality characteristics in Athens, Greece.

The impact of weather on air pollution was examined and evaluated for the city of Athens, Greece. We used an objectively defined synoptic classification scheme consisting of six summer and eight winter circulation types. This scheme was established using a combination of both factor and cluster analysis during 1954-1999. Surface and isobaric levels of 850 hPa data were used. Factor analysis combined with cluster analysis was used to derive circulation types based on surface meteorological data for the period 1954-1999 in Athens and on surface pressure grid data. The city was divided into three sectors according to the financial and social activities of the residents. To examine the spatial characteristics of pollutant concentrations over Athens for each synoptic type, the synoptic circulation types were then correlated with both gaseous and particulate pollutant concentrations measured in each sector between 1983 and 1999. Finally, extreme and severe episodic events were studied in terms of their meteorological and synoptic characteristics.