Measuring unequal distribution of pandemic severity across census years, variants of concern and interventions.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic stressed public health systems worldwide due to emergence of several highly transmissible variants of concern. Diverse and complex intervention policies deployed over the last years have shown varied effectiveness in controlling the pandemic. However, a systematic analysis and modelling of the combined effects of different viral lineages and complex intervention policies remains a challenge due to the lack of suitable measures of pandemic inequality and nonlinear effects. METHODS: Using large-scale agent-based modelling and a high-resolution computational simulation matching census-based demographics of Australia, we carried out a systematic comparative analysis of several COVID-19 pandemic scenarios. The scenarios covered two most recent Australian census years (2016 and 2021), three variants of concern (ancestral, Delta and Omicron), and five representative intervention policies. We introduced pandemic Lorenz curves measuring an unequal distribution of the pandemic severity across local areas. We also quantified pandemic biomodality, distinguishing between urban and regional waves, and measured bifurcations in the effectiveness of interventions. RESULTS: We quantified nonlinear effects of population heterogeneity on the pandemic severity, highlighting that (i) the population growth amplifies pandemic peaks, (ii) the changes in population size amplify the peak incidence more than the changes in density, and (iii) the pandemic severity is distributed unequally across local areas. We also examined and delineated the effects of urbanisation on the incidence bimodality, distinguishing between urban and regional pandemic waves. Finally, we quantified and examined the impact of school closures, complemented by partial interventions, and identified the conditions when inclusion of school closures may decisively control the transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Public health response to long-lasting pandemics must be frequently reviewed and adapted to demographic changes. To control recurrent waves, mass-vaccination rollouts need to be complemented by partial NPIs. Healthcare and vaccination resources need to be prioritised towards the localities and regions with high population growth and/or high density.

Genome entropy and network centrality contrast exploration and exploitation in evolution of foodborne pathogens.

Modelling evolution of foodborne pathogens is crucial for mitigation and prevention of outbreaks. We apply network-theoretic and information-theoretic methods to trace evolutionary pathways ofSalmonellaTyphimurium in New South Wales, Australia, by studying whole genome sequencing surveillance data over a five-year period which included several outbreaks. The study derives both undirected and directed genotype networks based on genetic proximity, and relates the network's structural property (centrality) to its functional property (prevalence). The centrality-prevalence space derived for the undirected network reveals a salient exploration-exploitation distinction across the pathogens, further quantified by the normalised Shannon entropy and the Fisher information of the corresponding shell genome. This distinction is also analysed by tracing the probability density along evolutionary paths in the centrality-prevalence space. We quantify the evolutionary pathways, and show that pathogens exploring the evolutionary search-space during the considered period begin to exploit their environment (their prevalence increases resulting in outbreaks), but eventually encounter a bottleneck formed by epidemic containment measures.

Persistence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia: The impact of fluctuating social distancing.

We modelled emergence and spread of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia between December 2021 and June 2022. This pandemic stage exhibited a diverse epidemiological profile with emergence of co-circulating sub-lineages of Omicron, further complicated by differences in social distancing behaviour which varied over time. Our study delineated distinct phases of the Omicron-associated pandemic stage, and retrospectively quantified the adoption of social distancing measures, fluctuating over different time periods in response to the observable incidence dynamics. We also modelled the corresponding disease burden, in terms of hospitalisations, intensive care unit occupancy, and mortality. Supported by good agreement between simulated and actual health data, our study revealed that the nonlinear dynamics observed in the daily incidence and disease burden were determined not only by introduction of sub-lineages of Omicron, but also by the fluctuating adoption of social distancing measures. Our high-resolution model can be used in design and evaluation of public health interventions during future crises.

Pangenome Analysis of a Salmonella Enteritidis Population Links a Major Outbreak to a Gifsy-1-Like Prophage Containing Anti-Inflammatory Gene gogB.

A major outbreak of the globally significant Salmonella Enteritidis foodborne pathogen was identified within a large clinical data set by a program of routine WGS of clinical presentations of salmonellosis in New South Wales, Australia. Pangenome analysis helped to quantify and isolate prophage content within the accessory partition of the pangenome. A prophage similar to Gifsy-1 (henceforth GF-1L) was found to occur in all isolates of the outbreak core SNP cluster, and in three other isolates. Further analysis revealed that the GF-1L prophage carried the gogB virulence factor. These observations suggest that GF-1L may be an important marker of virulence for S. Enteritidis population screening and, that anti-inflammatory, gogB-mediated virulence currently associated with Salmonella Typhimurium may also be displayed by S. Enteritidis. IMPORTANCE We examined 5 years of genomic and epidemiological data for the significant global foodborne pathogen, Salmonella enterica. Although Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Enteritidis (S. Enteritidis) is the leading cause of salmonellosis in the USA and Europe, prior to 2018 it was not endemic in the southern states of Australia. However, in 2018 a large outbreak led to the endemicity of S. Enteritidis in New South Wales, Australia, and a unique opportunity to study this phenomenon. Using pangenome analysis we uncovered that this clone contained a Gifsy-1-like prophage harboring the known virulence factor gogB. The prophage reported has not previously been described in S. Enteritidis isolates.

A framework for considering the utility of models when facing tough decisions in public health: a guideline for policy-makers.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the combined disciplines of public health, infectious disease and policy modelling squarely into the spotlight. Never before have decisions regarding public health measures and their impacts been such a topic of international deliberation, from the level of individuals and communities through to global leaders. Nor have models-developed at rapid pace and often in the absence of complete information-ever been so central to the decision-making process. However, after nearly 3 years of experience with modelling, policy-makers need to be more confident about which models will be most helpful to support them when taking public health decisions, and modellers need to better understand the factors that will lead to successful model adoption and utilization. We present a three-stage framework for achieving these ends.

The effects of local homogeneity assumptions in metapopulation models of infectious disease.

Computational models of infectious disease can be broadly categorized into two types: individual-based (agent-based) or compartmental models. While there are clear conceptual distinctions between these methodologies, a fair comparison of the approaches is difficult to achieve. Here, we carry out such a comparison by building a set of compartmental metapopulation models from an agent-based representation of a real population. By adjusting the compartmental model to approximately match the dynamics of the agent-based model, we identify two key qualitative properties of the individual-based dynamics which are lost upon aggregation into metapopulations. These are (i) the local depletion of susceptibility to infection and (ii) decoupling of different regional groups due to correlation between commuting behaviours and contact rates. The first of these effects is a general consequence of aggregating small, closely connected groups (i.e. families) into larger homogeneous metapopulations. The second can be interpreted as a consequence of aggregating two distinct types of individuals: school children, who travel short distances but have many potentially infectious contacts, and adults, who travel further but tend to have fewer contacts capable of transmitting infection. Our results could be generalized to other types of correlations between the characteristics of individuals and the behaviours that distinguish them.

Simulating Transmission Scenarios of the Delta Variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia.

An outbreak of the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2 that began around mid-June 2021 in Sydney, Australia, quickly developed into a nation-wide epidemic. The ongoing epidemic is of major concern as the Delta variant is more infectious than previous variants that circulated in Australia in 2020. Using a re-calibrated agent-based model, we explored a feasible range of non-pharmaceutical interventions, including case isolation, home quarantine, school closures, and stay-at-home restrictions (i.e., "social distancing.") Our modelling indicated that the levels of reduced interactions in workplaces and across communities attained in Sydney and other parts of the nation were inadequate for controlling the outbreak. A counter-factual analysis suggested that if 70% of the population followed tight stay-at-home restrictions, then at least 45 days would have been needed for new daily cases to fall from their peak to below ten per day. Our model predicted that, under a progressive vaccination rollout, if 40-50% of the Australian population follow stay-at-home restrictions, the incidence will peak by mid-October 2021: the peak in incidence across the nation was indeed observed in mid-October. We also quantified an expected burden on the healthcare system and potential fatalities across Australia.

Genome-wide networks reveal emergence of epidemic strains of Salmonella Enteritidis.

OBJECTIVES: To enhance monitoring of high-burden foodborne pathogens, there is opportunity to combine pangenome data with network analysis. METHODS: Salmonella enterica subspecies Enterica serovar Enteritidis isolates were referred to the New South Wales (NSW) Enteric Reference Laboratory between August 2015 and December 2019 (1033 isolates in total), inclusive of a confirmed outbreak. All isolates underwent whole genome sequencing. Distances between genomes were quantified by in silico multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) as well as core single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), which informed the construction of undirected networks. Centrality-prevalence spaces were generated from the undirected networks. Components on the undirected SNP network were considered alongside a phylogenetic tree representation. RESULTS: Outbreak isolates were identified as distinct components on the MLVA and SNP networks. The MLVA network-based centrality-prevalence space did not delineate the outbreak, whereas the outbreak was delineated in the SNP network-based centrality-prevalence space. Components on the undirected SNP network showed a high concordance to the SNP clusters based on phylogenetic analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Bacterial whole-genome data in network-based analysis can improve the resolution of population analysis. High concordance of network components and SNP clusters is promising for rapid population analyses of foodborne Salmonella spp. owing to the low overhead of network analysis.

How will mass-vaccination change COVID-19 lockdown requirements in Australia?

Background To prevent future outbreaks of COVID-19, Australia is pursuing a mass-vaccination approach in which a targeted group of the population comprising healthcare workers, aged-care residents and other individuals at increased risk of exposure will receive a highly effective priority vaccine. The rest of the population will instead have access to a less effective vaccine. Methods We apply a large-scale agent-based model of COVID-19 in Australia to investigate the possible implications of this hybrid approach to mass-vaccination. The model is calibrated to recent epidemiological and demographic data available in Australia, and accounts for several components of vaccine efficacy. Findings Within a feasible range of vaccine efficacy values, our model supports the assertion that complete herd immunity due to vaccination is not likely in the Australian context. For realistic scenarios in which herd immunity is not achieved, we simulate the effects of mass-vaccination on epidemic growth rate, and investigate the requirements of lockdown measures applied to curb subsequent outbreaks. In our simulations, Australia's vaccination strategy can feasibly reduce required lockdown intensity and initial epidemic growth rate by 43% and 52%, respectively. The severity of epidemics, as measured by the peak number of daily new cases, decreases by up to two orders of magnitude under plausible mass-vaccination and lockdown strategies. Interpretation The study presents a strong argument for a large-scale vaccination campaign in Australia, which would substantially reduce both the intensity of future outbreaks and the stringency of non-pharmaceutical interventions required for their suppression. Funding Australian Research Council; National Health and Medical Research Council.

Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia.

There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. This model is calibrated to match key characteristics of COVID-19 transmission. An important calibration outcome is the age-dependent fraction of symptomatic cases, with this fraction for children found to be one-fifth of such fraction for adults. We apply the model to compare several intervention strategies, including restrictions on international air travel, case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing with varying levels of compliance, and school closures. School closures are not found to bring decisive benefits unless coupled with high level of social distancing compliance. We report several trade-offs, and an important transition across the levels of social distancing compliance, in the range between 70% and 80% levels, with compliance at the 90% level found to control the disease within 13-14 weeks, when coupled with effective case isolation and international travel restrictions.

Revealing COVID-19 transmission in Australia by SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing and agent-based modeling.

In January 2020, a novel betacoronavirus (family Coronaviridae), named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified as the etiological agent of a cluster of pneumonia cases occurring in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China1,2. The disease arising from SARS-CoV-2 infection, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), subsequently spread rapidly causing a worldwide pandemic. Here we examine the added value of near real-time genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 in a subpopulation of infected patients during the first 10 weeks of COVID-19 containment in Australia and compare findings from genomic surveillance with predictions of a computational agent-based model (ABM). Using the Australian census data, the ABM generates over 24 million software agents representing the population of Australia, each with demographic attributes of an anonymous individual. It then simulates transmission of the disease over time, spreading from specific infection sources, using contact rates of individuals within different social contexts. We report that the prospective sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 clarified the probable source of infection in cases where epidemiological links could not be determined, significantly decreased the proportion of COVID-19 cases with contentious links, documented genomically similar cases associated with concurrent transmission in several institutions and identified previously unsuspected links. Only a quarter of sequenced cases appeared to be locally acquired and were concordant with predictions from the ABM. These high-resolution genomic data are crucial to track cases with locally acquired COVID-19 and for timely recognition of independent importations once border restrictions are lifted and trade and travel resume.

Game theoretic modelling of infectious disease dynamics and intervention methods: a review.

We review research studies which use game theory to model the decision-making of individuals during an epidemic, attempting to classify the literature and identify the emerging trends in this field. The literature is classified based on (i) type of population modelling (classical or network-based), (ii) frequency of the game (non-repeated or repeated), and (iii) type of strategy adoption (self-learning or imitation). The choice of model is shown to depend on many factors such as the immunity to the disease, the strength of immunity conferred by the vaccine, the size of population and the level of mixing therein. We highlight that while early studies used classical compartmental modelling with self-learning games, in recent years, there is a substantial growth of network-based modelling with imitation games. The review indicates that game theory continues to be an effective tool to model decision-making by individuals with respect to intervention (vaccination or social distancing).

The Effects of Imitation Dynamics on Vaccination Behaviours in SIR-Network Model.

We present a series of SIR-network models, extended with a game-theoretic treatment of imitation dynamics which result from regular population mobility across residential and work areas and the ensuing interactions. Each considered SIR-network model captures a class of vaccination behaviours influenced by epidemic characteristics, interaction topology, and imitation dynamics. Our focus is the resultant vaccination coverage, produced under voluntary vaccination schemes, in response to these varying factors. Using the next generation matrix method, we analytically derive and compare expressions for the basic reproduction number R 0 for the proposed SIR-network models. Furthermore, we simulate the epidemic dynamics over time for the considered models, and show that if individuals are sufficiently responsive towards the changes in the disease prevalence, then the more expansive travelling patterns encourage convergence to the endemic, mixed equilibria. On the contrary, if individuals are insensitive to changes in the disease prevalence, we find that they tend to remain unvaccinated. Our results concur with earlier studies in showing that residents from highly connected residential areas are more likely to get vaccinated. We also show that the existence of the individuals committed to receiving vaccination reduces R 0 and delays the disease prevalence, and thus is essential to containing epidemics.