Lower-crustal rheology and thermal gradient in the Taiwan orogenic belt illuminated by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake.

The strength of the lithosphere controls tectonic evolution and seismic cycles, but how rocks deform under stress in their natural settings is usually unclear. We constrain the rheological properties beneath the Taiwan orogenic belt using the stress perturbation following the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake and fourteen-year postseismic geodetic observations. The evolution of stress and strain rate in the lower crust is best explained by a power-law Burgers rheology with rapid increases in effective viscosities from ~1017 to ~1019 Pa s within a year. The short-term modulation of the lower-crustal strength during the seismic cycle may alter the energy budget of mountain building. Incorporating the laboratory data and associated uncertainties, inferred thermal gradients suggest an eastward increase from 19.5±2.5°C/km in the Coastal Plain to 32±3°C/km in the Central Range. Geodetic observations may bridge the gap between laboratory and lithospheric scales to investigate crustal rheology and tectonic evolution.

Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes.

Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.

Accelerated uplift and magmatic intrusion of the Yellowstone caldera, 2004 to 2006.

The Yellowstone caldera began a rapid episode of ground uplift in mid-2004, revealed by Global Positioning System and interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements, at rates up to 7 centimeters per year, which is over three times faster than previously observed inflation rates. Source modeling of the deformation data suggests an expanding volcanic sill of approximately 1200 square kilometers at a 10-kilometer depth beneath the caldera, coincident with the top of a seismically imaged crustal magma chamber. The modeled rate of source volume increase is 0.1 cubic kilometer per year, similar to the amount of magma intrusion required to supply the observed high heat flow of the caldera. This evidence suggests magma recharge as the main mechanism for the accelerated uplift, although pressurization of magmatic fluids cannot be ruled out.