A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2012.

Our aim in conducting annual horizon scans is to identify issues that, although currently receiving little attention, may be of increasing importance to the conservation of biological diversity in the future. The 15 issues presented here were identified by a diverse team of 22 experts in horizon scanning, and conservation science and its application. Methods for identifying and refining issues were the same as in two previous annual scans and are widely transferable to other disciplines. The issues highlight potential changes in climate, technology and human behaviour. Examples include warming of the deep sea, increased cultivation of perennial grains, burning of Arctic tundra, and the development of nuclear batteries and hydrokinetic in-stream turbines.

A breath test for malignant mesothelioma using an electronic nose.

Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is a rare tumour which is difficult to diagnose in its early stages. Earlier detection of MM could potentially improve survival. Exhaled breath sampling of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) using a carbon polymer array (CPA) electronic nose recognises specific breath profiles characteristic of different diseases, and can distinguish between patients with lung cancer and controls. With MM, the potential confounding effect of other asbestos-related diseases (ARDs) needs to be considered. We hypothesised that as CPA electronic nose would distinguish patients with MM, patients with benign ARDs, and controls with high sensitivity and specificity. 20 MM, 18 ARD and 42 control subjects participated in a cross-sectional, case-control study. Breath samples were analysed using the Cyranose 320 (Smiths Detection, Pasadena, CA, USA), using canonical discriminant analysis and principal component reduction. 10 MM subjects created the training set. Smell prints from 10 new MM patients were distinguished from control subjects with an accuracy of 95%. Patients with MM, ARDs and control subjects were correctly identified in 88% of cases. Exhaled breath VOC profiling can accurately distinguish between patients with MM, ARDs and controls using a CPA electronic nose. This could eventually translate into a screening tool for high-risk populations.

Breath analysis in asbestos-related disorders: a review of the literature and potential future applications.

Asbestos usage was very common worldwide in the last century and continues in several countries today. Several diseases occur due to asbestos exposure, including malignant tumours such as malignant mesothelioma of the pleura and lung cancer, which have a very poor prognosis. Asbestos inhalation may also result in more benign conditions such as asbestosis (or pulmonary fibrosis due to asbestos), pleural plaques and pleural thickening. It is predicted that asbestos-associated mortality and morbidity will continue to increase, but methods for diagnosing asbestos-related disease are currently invasive and unsuitable for an increasingly elderly population. New non-invasive methods such as analysis of exhaled breath biomarkers e.g. exhaled nitric oxide (F(E)NO), exhaled breath condensate or of exhaled volatile organic compounds could potentially be extremely useful in these conditions. This article reviews the current literature on this topic and suggests areas for their application in the future.

Partial knowledge in a tip-of-the-tongue state about two- and three-word proper names.

Participants in this study attempted to name 44 famous people i n response to reading biographical information about them. Half of the celebrities had names that contained two words (e.g., Gwyneth Paltrow and Sean Penn), and half of them had names containing three words (e.g., Catherine Zeta Jones and Billy Bob Thornton). Half of the names had previously been judged to be of high familiarity (e.g., Gwyneth Paltrow), and half were of lower familiarity (e.g., Billy Bob Thornton). The results showed that when in a tip-of-the-tongue (TOT) state, the participants were able to estimate at above-chance rates whether a celebrity's name comprised two or three words. Accurate information about the number of words was not available to the participants unless they were in a TOT state or had already named the person. Attempts to identify celebrities whose name had three elements were associated with an increased number of TOTs, relative to celebrities whose name had two units, but there was no difference in the number of don't know responses for names containing two or three words. Calculations based on Gollan and Brown (2006) suggested that having three names impaired the phonological but not the semantic stage of lexical retrieval, whereas low familiarity impaired both semantic and phonological retrieval stages.