Seasonal influenza vaccination is associated with reduced risk of death among Medicare beneficiaries☆.

BACKGROUND: Influenza causes substantial mortality, especially among older persons. Influenza vaccines are rarely more than 50% effective and rarely reach more than half of the US Medicare population, which is primarily an aged population. We wished to estimate the association between vaccination and mortality reduction. METHOD: We used the US Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) DataLink Project to determine vaccination status and timing during the 2017-2018 influenza season for more than 26 million Medicare enrollees. Patient-level demographic, health, co-morbidity, hospitalization, vaccination, and healthcare utilization claims data were supplied as covariates to general linear models in order to isolate and estimate the association between participation in the vaccination program and relative risk of death. FINDINGS: The 2017-2018 seasonal influenza vaccine reduced (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] 0.936 [95% CI = 0.918-0.954]) the risk of all-cause death among beneficiaries following a hospitalization for sepsis and moreover the risk of death without a prior hospitalization during the 2.5-month outcome window (RRR 0.870 [95% CI = 0.853-0.887]). We estimate the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent a death in the ten-week outcome window is between 1,515 beneficiaries (95% CI = 1,351-1,754; derived from the average treatment effect of augmented inverse probability weighting) and 1,960 beneficiaries (95% CI = 1,695-2,381; derived from the average marginal effect of logistic regression). Among beneficiaries requiring hospitalization, the greatest death risk reduction accrued to those 85 + years of age who were hospitalized with sepsis, RRR 0.92 [95% CI = 0.89-0.95]. No apparent benefit was realized by beneficiaries who required custodial (nursing home) care. INTERPRETATION: Seasonal influenza immunization is associated with relative reduction of death risk among non-institutionalized Medicare beneficiaries. FUNDING: All authors are full-time or contractual employees of the United States Federal Government, Department of Health and Human Services, the funding agency.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 4. Precoronavirus Disease 2019 Update January 2012-February 2020.

OBJECTIVES: To provide updated information on the burdens of sepsis during acute inpatient admissions for Medicare beneficiaries. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services DataLink Project. SETTING: All U.S. acute-care hospitals, excluding federally operated hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: All Medicare beneficiaries, January 2012-February 2020, with an explicit sepsis diagnostic code assigned during an inpatient admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The count of Medicare Part A/B (fee-for-service) plus Medicare Advantage inpatient sepsis admissions rose from 981,027 (CY2012) to 1,700,433 (CY 2019). The proportion of total admissions with sepsis in the Medicare Advantage population rose from 21.43% to 35.39%, reflecting the increasing beneficiary proportion enrolled in Medicare Advantage. In CY2019, 6-month mortality rates in Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries for sepsis continued to decline, but remained high: 59.9% for septic shock, 35.5% for severe sepsis, 30.8% for sepsis attributed to a specific organism, and 26.5% for unspecified sepsis. Total fee-for-service-only inpatient hospital costs rose from $17.79B (CY2012) to $22.98B (CY2019). We estimated that the aggregate cost of sepsis hospital care for the entire U.S. population was at least $57.47B in 2019. Inclusion of 14 months' (January 2019-February 2020) newer data exposed new trends: the cost per patient, number of admissions, and fraction of patients with sepsis labeled as present on admission inflected around November 2015, coincident with the change to International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition, and introduction of the Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock Management Bundle (SEP-1) metric. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis among Medicare beneficiaries precoronavirus disease 2019 imposed immense burdens upon patients, their families, and the taxpayers.

An image registration framework to estimate 3D myocardial strains from cine cardiac MRI in mice.

Accurate and efficient quantification of cardiac motion offers promising biomarkers for non-invasive diagnosis and prognosis of structural heart diseases. Cine cardiac magnetic resonance imaging remains one of the most advanced imaging tools to provide image acquisitions needed to assess and quantify in-vivo heart kinematics. The majority of cardiac motion studies are focused on human data, and there remains a need to develop and implement an image-registration pipeline to quantify full three-dimensional (3D) cardiac motion in mice where ideal image acquisition is challenged by the subject size and heart rate and the possibility of traditional tagged imaging is hampered. In this study, we used diffeomorphic image registration to estimate strains in the left ventricular wall in two wild-type mice and one diabetic mouse. Our pipeline resulted in a continuous and fully 3D strain map over one cardiac cycle. The estimation of 3D regional and transmural variations of strains is a critical step towards identifying mechanistic biomarkers for improved diagnosis and phenotyping of structural left heart diseases including heart failure with reduced or preserved ejection fraction.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 1. The Burdens of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To provide contemporary estimates of the burdens (costs and mortality) associated with acute inpatient Medicare beneficiary admissions for sepsis. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services DataLink Project. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excluding federally operated hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: All Medicare beneficiaries, 2012-2018, with an inpatient admission including one or more explicit sepsis codes. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Total inpatient hospital and skilled nursing facility admission counts, costs, and mortality over time. From calendar year (CY)2012-CY2018, the total number of Medicare Part A/B (fee-for-service) beneficiaries with an inpatient hospital admission associated with an explicit sepsis code rose from 811,644 to 1,136,889. The total cost of inpatient hospital admission including an explicit sepsis code for those beneficiaries in those calendar years rose from $17,792,657,303 to $22,439,794,212. The total cost of skilled nursing facility care in the 90 days subsequent to an inpatient hospital discharge that included an explicit sepsis code for Medicare Part A/B rose from $3,931,616,160 to $5,623,862,486 over that same interval. Precise costs are not available for Medicare Part C (Medicare Advantage) patients. Using available federal data sources, we estimated the aggregate cost of inpatient admissions and skilled nursing facility admissions for Medicare Advantage patients to have risen from $6.0 to $13.4 billion over the CY2012-CY2018 interval. Combining data for fee-for-service beneficiaries and estimates for Medicare Advantage beneficiaries, we estimate the total inpatient admission sepsis cost and any subsequent skilled nursing facility admission for all (fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage) Medicare patients to have risen from $27.7 to $41.5 billion. Contemporary 6-month mortality rates for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with a sepsis inpatient admission remain high: for septic shock, approximately 60%; for severe sepsis, approximately 36%; for sepsis attributed to a specific organism, approximately 31%; and for unspecified sepsis, approximately 27%. CONCLUSION: Sepsis remains common, costly to treat, and presages significant mortality for Medicare beneficiaries.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 2. The Trajectories of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To distinguish characteristics of Medicare beneficiaries who will have an acute inpatient admission for sepsis from those who have an inpatient admission without sepsis, and to describe their further trajectories during and subsequent to those inpatient admissions. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services DataLink Project. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excepting federal hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: Medicare beneficiaries, 2012-2018, with an inpatient hospital admission including one or more explicit sepsis codes. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Prevalent diagnoses in the year prior to the inpatient admission; healthcare contacts in the week prior to the inpatient admission; discharges, transfers, readmissions, and deaths (trajectories) for 6 months following discharge from the inpatient admission. Beneficiaries with no sepsis inpatient hospital admission for a year prior to an index hospital admission for sepsis were nearly indistinguishable by accumulated diagnostic codes from beneficiaries who had an index hospital admission without sepsis. Although the timing of healthcare services in the week prior to inpatient hospital admission was similar among beneficiaries who would be admitted for sepsis versus those whose inpatient admission did not include a sepsis code, the setting differed: beneficiaries destined for a sepsis admission were more likely to have received skilled nursing or unskilled nursing (e.g., nursing aide for activities of daily living) care. In contrast, comparing beneficiaries who had been free of any inpatient admission for an entire year and then required an inpatient admission, acute inpatient stays that included a sepsis code led to more than three times as many deaths within 1 week of discharge, with more admissions to skilled nursing facilities and fewer discharges to home. Comparing all beneficiaries who were admitted to a skilled nursing facility after an inpatient hospital admission, those who had sepsis coded during the index admission were more likely to die in the skilled nursing facility; more likely to be readmitted to an acute inpatient hospital and subsequently die in that setting; or if they survive to discharge from the skilled nursing facility, they are more likely to go next to a custodial nursing home. CONCLUSIONS: Although Medicare beneficiaries destined for an inpatient hospital admission with a sepsis code are nearly indistinguishable by other diagnostic codes from those whose admissions will not have a sepsis code, their healthcare trajectories following the admission are worse. This suggests that an inpatient stay that included a sepsis code not only identifies beneficiaries who were less resilient to infection but also signals increased risk for worsening health, for mortality, and for increased use of advanced healthcare services during and postdischarge along with an increased likelihood of an inpatient hospital readmission.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 3. The Methods, Models, and Forecasts of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of sepsis, age, and comorbidities on death following an acute inpatient admission and to model and forecast inpatient and skilled nursing facility costs for Medicare beneficiaries during and subsequent to an acute inpatient sepsis admission. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services DataLink Project (CMS) and leveraging the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category risk adjustment model. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excepting federal hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: All Part A/B (fee-for-service) Medicare beneficiaries with an acute inpatient admission in 2017 and who had no inpatient sepsis admission in the prior year. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Logistic regression models to determine covariate risk contribution to death following an acute inpatient admission; conventional regression to predict Medicare beneficiary sepsis costs. Using the Hierarchical Condition Category risk adjustment model to illuminate influence of illness on outcome of inpatient admissions, representative odds ratios (with 95% CIs) for death within 6 months of an admission (referenced to beneficiaries admitted but without the characteristic) are as follows: septic shock, 7.27 (7.19-7.35); metastatic cancer and acute leukemia (Hierarchical Condition Category 8), 6.76 (6.71-6.82); all sepsis, 2.63 (2.62-2.65); respiratory arrest (Hierarchical Condition Category 83), 2.55 (2.35-2.77); end-stage liver disease (Hierarchical Condition Category 27), 2.53 (2.49-2.56); and severe sepsis without shock, 2.48 (2.45-2.51). Models of the cost of sepsis care for Medicare beneficiaries forecast arise approximately 13% over 2 years owing the rising enrollments in Medicare offset by the cost of care per admission. CONCLUSIONS: A sepsis inpatient admission is associated with marked increase in risk of death that is comparable to the risks associated with inpatient admissions for other common and serious chronic illnesses. The aggregate costs of sepsis care for Medicare beneficiaries will continue to increase.

Understanding Sustained Retention in HIV/AIDS Care and Treatment: a Synthetic Review.

Sustained retention represents an enduring and evolving challenge to HIV treatment programs in Africa. We present a theoretical framework for sustained retention borrowing from ecologic principles of sustainability and dynamic adaptation. We posit that sustained retention from the patient perspective is dependent on three foundational principles: (1) patient activation: the acceptance, prioritization, literacy, and skills to manage a chronic disease condition, (2) social normalization: the engagement of a social network and harnessing social capital to support care and treatment, and (3) livelihood routinization: the integration of care and treatment activities into livelihood priorities that may change over time. Using this framework, we highlight barriers specific to sustained retention and review interventions addressing long-term, sustained retention in HIV care with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa.

Receipt of surgical treatment in US women with early stage breast cancer: does place of birth matter?

BACKGROUND: While effects of age, race, place of residence, and marital status on receipt of treatment among female breast cancer patients have been well documented, place of birth is a relatively less studied factor. The purpose of our study was to assess the relationship between birth place and type of surgery performed for early-stage breast cancer among US women of different racial and ethnic backgrounds. METHODS: Eligible cases (n=119,560) were selected from the SEER registries for the period 2004-2009. US-born and foreign-born patients of different racial/ethnic groups were compared to US-born non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) with respect to receipt of breast conserving surgery (BCS) or mastectomy. Results of multivariable logistic regression analyses were expressed as adjusted odds ratios (OR) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: The proportion of BCS was highest in foreign-born Whites (62.5%) and lowest in foreign-born Asians (50.3%). Relative to US-born NHW, BCS was more common in foreign-born Whites (OR=1.21. 95% CI: 1.15-1.28) and foreign-born Blacks (OR=1.21. 95% CI: 1.15-1.28). In contrast, foreign-born Asians received less BCS compared to both US-born NHW (OR=.76, 95% CI: .72-0.80) and US-born Asians (OR=.74, 95% CI: .64-.86). CONCLUSIONS: Foreign-born Asian breast cancer patients are less likely to receive BSC compared to US-born Whites or Asian-Americans, whereas foreign-born Whites and foreign-born Blacks are more likely to receive BCS than US-born Whites. Further studies are needed to understand cultural and or health systems factors that may explain these observations.

International variations in bladder cancer incidence and mortality.

CONTEXT: Previous studies have reported substantial worldwide regional variations in bladder cancer (BCa) incidence and mortality. OBJECTIVE: To describe contemporary international variations in BCa incidence and mortality rates and trends using the most recent data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: Estimated 2008 BCa incidence and mortality rates for each country by sex were obtained from GLOBOCAN. Recent trends in incidence for 43 countries and in mortality for 64 countries were assessed by join-point model using data from the IARC's Cancer Incidence in Five Continents and from the World Health Organisation's mortality database, respectively. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: The highest incidence rates for both men and women are found in Europe, the United States, and Egypt, and the lowest rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and South America. Mortality rates are highest in parts of Europe and northern Africa and lowest in Asia, Central America, and middle Africa. Incidence rates among men decreased in 11 of 43 countries (46 registries) (North America, western and northern Europe), remained stable in 20, and increased in 12 countries (southern, central, and eastern Europe). Among women, incidence rates decreased in 10 countries, stabilised in 22 countries, and increased in 12 countries. Mortality rates among men decreased in 32 of 65 countries (throughout all world regions except Central and South America), stabilised in 30 countries, and increased in 3 (Romania, Slovenia, and Cuba). Among women, mortality rates decreased in 24 countries, remained stable in 36 countries, and increased in 5 countries (central and eastern Europe). CONCLUSIONS: Incidence and mortality rates in general decreased in most Western countries but increased in some eastern European and developing countries. These patterns in part may reflect differences in the stage and extent of the tobacco epidemic, changes in coding practices, prevalence of schistosomiasis (Africa), and occupational exposure.