RESUMO
With the intensification of human activities, the amount of phosphorus (P)-containing waste has increased. When such waste is not recycled, P is released into the environment, leading to environmental issues such as the eutrophication of water bodies. In this study, based on the material flow analysis method, a P Waste Flow analysis model (P-WFA) was developed to analyze the P flow in the waste system of Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China. To address the research gap in long-term P flow analysis at the watershed scale, this study quantified the P content in the waste system of the Poyang Lake Watershed from 1950 to 2020. The analysis revealed that from 1950 to 2020, the total P input into the waste system increased from 5.49 × 104 tons in 1950 to 2.28 × 105 tons in 2020. The breeding industry system was identified as the primary source, accounting for 25.19-41.59 % of the total waste system. Over the past 70 years, P loss to surface water from waste systems has been primarily facilitated by manure from the breeding industry, as well as drainage from crop farming systems (77.74 % in 2020). At the same time, the P recycling rate (PRR) of the waste system exhibited an initial increase followed by a decrease, increasing from 44.14 % to 47.75 % before dropping to 44.41 %. Population growth, urbanization, and changes in consumption levels in Jiangxi Province have led to changes in the dietary structure and fertilizer use, consequently affecting the P cycling pattern. This study presents a comprehensive P flow model for waste systems in the Poyang Lake Watershed. This model can be used as a reference to enhance P cycling and manage P loss in other large freshwater lakes.
RESUMO
Understanding the historical patterns of phosphorus (P) cycling is essential for sustainable P management and eutrophication mitigation in watersheds. Currently, there is a lack of long-term watershed-scale models that analyze the flow of P substances and quantify the socioeconomic patterns of P flow. This study adopted a watershed perspective and incorporated crucial economic and social subsystems related to P production, consumption, and emissions throughout the entire life cycle. Based on this approach, a bottom-up watershed P flow analysis model was developed to quantify the P cycle for the first time in the Poyang Lake watershed from 1950 to 2020 and to explore the driving factors that influence its strength by analyzing multi-year P flow results. In general, the P cycle in the Poyang Lake watershed was no longer a naturally dominated cycle but significantly influenced by human activities during the flow dynamics between 1950 and 2015. Agricultural intensification and expansion of large-scale livestock farming continue to enhance the P flow in the study area. Fertilizer P inputs from cultivation account for approximately 60% of the total inputs to farming systems, but phosphate fertilizer utilization continues to decline. Feed P inputs have continued to increase since 2007. The expansion of large-scale farming and the demand for urbanization are the main factors leading to changes in feed P input patterns. The P utilization rate for livestock farming (PUEa) is progressively higher than international levels, with PUEa increasing from 0.64% (1950) to 9.7% (2020). Additionally, per capita food P consumption in the watershed increased from 0.67 kg to 0.80 kg between 1950 and 2020. The anthropogenic P emissions have increased from 1.67 × 104 t (1950) to 8.73 × 104 t (2020), with an average annual growth rate of 2.41%. Watershed-wide P pollution emissions have increased by more than five-fold. Population growth and agricultural development are important drivers of structural changes in P flows in the study area, and they induce changes in social conditions, including agricultural production, dietary structure, and consumption levels, further dominating the cyclic patterns of P use, discharge, and recycling. This study provides a broader and applicable P flow model to measure the characteristics of the P cycle throughout the watershed social system as well as provides methodological support and policy insights for large lakes in rapidly developing areas or countries to easily present P flow structures and sustainably manage P resources.
