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Background: Prognosis varies among stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC). Our study aimed to build a robust prognostic nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) of patients with stage IV CRC in order to provide evidence for individualized treatment. Method: We collected the information of 16,283 patients with stage IV CRC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and then randomized these patients in a ratio of 7:3 into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort. In addition, 501 patients in the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (Guangzhou, China) database were selected and used as an external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to screen out significant variables for nomogram establishment. The nomogram model was assessed using time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve (time-dependent ROC), concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method. Result: The C-index of the nomogram for OS in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts were 0.737, 0.727, and 0.655, respectively. ROC analysis and calibration curves pronounced robust discriminative ability of the model. Further, we divided the patients into a high-risk group and a low-risk group according to the nomogram. Corresponding Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the prediction of the nomogram was consistent with the actual practice. Additionally, model comparisons and decision curve analysis proved that the nomogram for predicting prognosis was significantly superior to the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system. Conclusions: We constructed a nomogram to predict OS of the stage IV CRC and externally validate its generalization, which was superior to the TNM staging system.
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Background: Removal of colorectal polyps during screening could reduce the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, there is a lack of data on risk factors associated with recurrence of polyps, including conventional adenomas and serrated polyps (SPs). This study aimed to determine risk factors for recurrence of colorectal polyps and their subtypes based on the characteristics of the patients and polyps. Methods: A total of 1,165 patients diagnosed with conventional adenoma or SP in the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between January 2013 and December 2019 were enrolled in this study, including 668 cases with conventional adenomas, 385 with SPs, and 112 with coexistence of adenomas and SPs. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify potential risk factors for polyp recurrence. A nomogram was established according to risk factors and the performance was evaluated using calibration plots. Results: During a median follow-up of 24 months, recurrent polyps were observed in 531 (45.6%) cases. Male, age ≥50 years, body mass index (BMI) ≥24 kg/m2, at least three polyps, smoking, alcohol consumption, family history of polyps, and family history of CRC were independent risk factors for polyp recurrence. The Harrell's C-index of the nomogram developed with these parameters was 0.69 and the calibration plots showed good agreement between actual polyp recurrence and nomogram-predicted recurrence probability. In the subtype analyses, conventional adenomas had the same risk factors for recurrence as all polyps, while smoking, alcohol consumption, family history of polyps, and family history of CRC were not risk factors for SP recurrence. Conclusions: We identified several risk factors for recurrence of colorectal polyps and found that some of them could increase the risk of adenoma recurrence but not SP recurrence, including smoking, alcohol consumption, and family history of polyps/CRC, which might help us to understand different etiology and biology between conventional adenomas and SPs.
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PURPOSE: The role of villous architecture in the prognosis of colon adenocarcinoma remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic factors of colon adenocarcinoma with different types of villous architecture and to establish nomograms for predicting cancer-specific mortality. METHODS: This retrospective study included 10,427 patients with colon adenocarcinoma arising in adenomas with villous architectures. The patients were stratified into the tubulovillous adenocarcinoma cohort and villous adenocarcinoma cohort. The prognostic risk factors, which were incorporated into nomograms for survival prediction, were determined by the log-rank test and Cox hazard models. The Harrell's Concordance Index (C-index) and calibration curve were utilized to evaluate the prediction accuracy. RESULTS: The pathological type of villous architecture was independently associated with the mortality of the entire population. Age, race, tumor size, T/N/M stage, and chemotherapy were independent risk factors of mortality in both cohorts. Interestingly, tumor differentiation was a prognostic factor for tubulovillous adenocarcinoma rather than villous adenocarcinoma, while the retrieved lymph node number was a prognostic factor for villous adenocarcinoma rather than tubulovillous adenocarcinoma. Survival analysis showed that the mortality rate of villous adenocarcinoma was higher than that of tubulovillous adenocarcinoma (HR 1.361, P < 0.001). We then established nomograms to predict the mortality of both cohorts and found excellent discrimination and predictive accuracy (C-index 0.842 and 0.821). CONCLUSION: Villous architecture is a determinant of colon adenocarcinoma outcomes, which might prompt reports of villous architecture in colon adenocarcinoma specimens by pathologists. Our population-based nomograms could be useful for predicting the survival of patients with colon adenocarcinoma and guiding individualized treatments.
