Win Statistics in Observational Cancer Research: Integrating Clinical and Quality-of-Life Outcomes.

Background: Quality-of-life metrics are increasingly important for oncological patients alongside traditional endpoints like mortality and disease progression. Statistical tools such as Win Ratio, Win Odds, and Net Benefit prioritize clinically significant outcomes using composite endpoints. In randomized trials, Win Statistics provide fair comparisons between treatment and control groups. However, their use in observational studies is complicated by confounding variables. Propensity score (PS) matching mitigates confounding variables but may reduce the sample size, affecting the power of win statistics analyses. Alternatively, PS matching can stratify samples, preserving the sample size. This study aims to assess the long-term impact of these methods on decision making, particularly in colorectal cancer patients. Methods: A motivating example involves a cohort of patients from the ReSARCh observational study (2016-2021) with locally advanced adenocarcinoma of the rectum, situated up to 12 cm from the anal verge. These patients underwent either a watch-and-wait approach (WW) or trans-anal local excision (LE). Win statistics compared the effects of WW and LE on a composite outcome (overall survival, recurrence, presence of ostomy, and rectum excision). For matched win statistics, we used robust inference techniques proposed by Matsouaka et al. (2022), and for stratified win statistics, we applied the method proposed by Dong et al. (2018). A simulation study assessed the coverage probability of matched and stratified win statistics in balanced and unbalanced groups, calculating how often the confidence intervals included the true values of WR, NB, and WO across 1000 simulations. Results: The results suggest a better efficacy of the LE approach when considering efficacy outcomes alone (WR: 0.47 (0.01 to 1.14); NB: -0.16 (-0.34 to 0.02); and WO: 0.73 (0.5 to 1.05)). However, when QoL outcomes are included in the analyses, the estimates are closer to 1 (WR: 0.87 (0.06 to 2.06); WO: 0.93 (0.61 to 1.4)) and to 0 (NB: -0.04 (-0.25 to 0.17)), indicating a negative impact of the treatment effect of LE regarding the presence of ostomy and the excision of the rectum. Moreover, based on the simulation study, our findings underscore the superior performance of matched compared to stratified win statistics in terms of coverage probability (matched WR: 97% vs. stratified WR: 33.3% in a high-imbalance setting; matched WR: 98% vs. stratified WR: 34.4% in a medium-imbalance setting; and matched WR: 99.2% vs. stratified WR: 37.4% in a low-imbalance setting). Conclusions: In conclusion, our study sheds light on the interpretation of the results of win statistics in terms of statistical significance, providing insights into the application of pairwise comparison in observational settings, promoting its use to improve outcomes for cancer patients.

Association of Vegetarian and Vegan Diets with Cardiovascular Health: An Umbrella Review of Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies and Randomized Trials.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are leading global causes of mortality. Unhealthy diets have been linked to an increased risk of CVD, while plant-based diets have shown potential protective effects. This umbrella review summarizes the evidence on the association between vegetarian diets and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. METHODS: PubMed, Scopus, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane, and Web of Science were consulted. Meta-analyses grouped by author and outcome were performed. The heterogeneity was evaluated using I2 statistics. RESULTS: There was a 41.2% risk reduction for cerebrovascular disease. CVD incidence had a 29% reduced risk. CVD mortality had a 13.8% risk reduction, while IHD incidence had a 24.1% reduction, but with high heterogeneity. IHD mortality showed a significant 32.1% risk reduction. Ischemic stroke had a significant 32.9% risk reduction across six studies. Stroke incidence showed a significant 39.1% risk reduction in a single study. There was a non-significant 11.6% risk reduction for stroke mortality with moderate heterogeneity. CONCLUSION: Healthier diets are associated with reduced risks of cerebrovascular disease, CVD incidence, IHD mortality, and ischemic stroke. However, evidence quality and consistency vary, emphasizing the need for more research. Policymakers and healthcare professionals should prioritize promoting healthy diets for CVD prevention.

Development and external validation of a predictive multivariable model for last-weeks survival of advanced cancer patients in the palliative home care setting (PACS).

PURPOSE: Various prognostic indexes have been proposed to improve physicians' ability to predict survival time in advanced cancer patients, admitted to palliative care (PC) with a survival probably to a few weeks of life, but no optimal score has been identified. The study aims therefore to develop and externally validate a new multivariable predictive model in this setting. METHODS: We developed a model to predict short-term overall survival in cancer patients on the basis of clinical factors collected at PC admission. The model was developed on 1020 cancer patients prospectively enrolled to home palliative care at VIDAS Milan, Italy, between May 2018 and February 2020 and followed-up to June 2020, and validated in two separate samples of 544 home care and 247 hospice patients. RESULTS: Among 68 clinical factors considered, five predictors were included in the predictive model, i.e., rattle, heart rate, anorexia, liver failure, and the Karnofsky performance status. Patient's survival probability at 5, 15, 30 and 45 days was estimated. The predictive model showed a good calibration and moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.72 and 0.79) in the home care validation set, but model calibration was suboptimal in hospice patients. CONCLUSIONS: The new multivariable predictive model for palliative cancer patients' survival (PACS model) includes clinical parameters routinely at patient's admission to PC and can be easily used to facilitate immediate and appropriate short-term clinical decisions for PC cancer patients in the home setting.

Palliative medicine favourably influences end-of-life cancer care intensity: a large retrospective database study.

OBJECTIVES: Hospice and home palliative care have been associated to a reduction of aggressive treatments in the end-of-life, but data in the Italian context are scanty. Therefore, we aim to investigate the role of palliative care on indicators of end-of-life intensity of care among patients with cancer in Lombardy, the largest Italian region. METHODS: Within a retrospective study using the healthcare utilisation databases of Lombardy, Italy, we selected all residents who died in 2019 with a diagnosis of cancer. We considered as exposure variables admission to palliative care and time at palliative care admission, and as indicators of aggressive care hospitalisations, diagnostic/therapeutic procedures, in-hospital death, emergency department visits and chemotherapy over a time window of 30 days before death; chemotherapy in the last 14 days was also considered. RESULTS: Our cohort included 26 539 individuals; of these, 14 320 (54%) were admitted to palliative care before death. Individuals who were admitted to palliative care had an odds ratio (OR) of 0.27 for one hospitalisation, 0.14 for ≥2 hospitalisations, 0.25 for hospital stay ≥12 days, 0.38 for minor diagnostic/therapeutic procedures, 0.18 for major diagnostic/therapeutic procedures, 0.02 for in-hospital death, 0.35 for one emergency department visit, 0.29 for ≥2 emergency department visits and 0.66 for chemotherapy use in the last 30 days; the OR was 0.56 for chemotherapy use in the last 14 days. CONCLUSIONS: This large real-world analysis confirms and further support the importance of palliative care assistance for patients with cancer in the end- of- life; this is associated to a significant reduction in unnecessary treatments.

[Palliative Care in Lombardy Region: analysis of the care offer in 2019.] / Le cure palliative in Lombardia: analisi dell'offerta assistenziale nel 2019.

OBJECTIVE: The Lombardy Region has one of the most widespread and advanced models of Palliative Care (PC) in the country. However, there is a relative lack of updated data referring to the activity of the Lombardy PC network. METHODS: This work aims to describe the activity carried out in the two main PC care settings (home care and hospice) in 2019 through the analysis of the data sent by each Unit to the Lombardy Region. Data were analysed on a regional basis and considering the 8 Health Protection Agencies (ATS) separately. RESULTS: In 2019, PC activity was provided by 114 home care units (1.14/100,000 inhabitants) and 70 hospice for a total of 812 beds (8.1 beds/100,000 inhabitants). Overall, 25,514 patients were assisted for a total of 29,892 care pathway. 77.6% of the patients assisted were oncologic and about 67% of the patients who died of cancer in Lombardy were intercepted by CP. 54.4% of patients were taken care of in home care, although with a significant difference between cancer patients (58%) and non-cancer patients (42%). In home care, average activation time was 2.8 days and in 81% of cases the assistance was activated within 24-48 hours; in hospice, average activation time was 3.5 days, with 60% of admissions within 24 hours and over 30% with waiting time ≥3 days. The median duration of home palliative care was approximately 21 days (average 40.5), that in hospice was 9 days (average 17.2). In the home care pathways, the prevalent outcome was the death of the patient at home (64%) and hospitalization in hospice (17.2%), while 86% of hospitalizations in hospice ended with death. CONCLUSIONS: This accurate report of the Lombardy PC activity indicates that PC satisfy various qualitative indicators of structural and care process identified by national regulations. However, PC still remain predominantly intended for cancer patients, with relatively short duration of care, particularly in the hospice setting.