Spatial targeting of irrigation development and water resource management to mitigate vector-borne disease.

Scaling irrigated agriculture is a global strategy to mitigate food insecurity concerns. While expanding irrigated agriculture is critical to meeting food production demands, it is important to consider how these land use and land cover changes (LULCC) may alter the water resources of landscapes and impact the spatiotemporal epidemiology of disease. Here, a generalizable method is presented to inform irrigation development decision-making aimed at increasing crop production through irrigation while simultaneously mitigating malaria risk to surrounding communities. Changes to the spatiotemporal patterns of malaria vector (Anopheles gambiae s.s.) suitability, driven by irrigated agricultural expansion, are presented for Malawi's rainy and dry seasons. The methods presented may be applied to other geographical areas where sufficient irrigation and malaria prevalence data are available. Results show that approximately 8.60% and 1.78% of Malawi is maximally suitable for An. gambiae s.s. breeding in the rainy and dry seasons, respectively. However, the proposed LULCC from irrigated agriculture increases the maximally suitable land area in both seasons: 15.16% (rainy) and 2.17% (dry). Proposed irrigation development sites are analyzed and ranked according to their likelihood of increasing malaria risk for those closest to the schemes. Results illustrate how geospatial information on the anticipated change to the malaria landscape driven by increasing irrigated agricultural extent can assist in altering development plans, amending policies, or reassessing water resource management strategies to mitigate expected changes in malaria risk.

Proximity of Residence to Irrigation Determines Malaria Risk and Anopheles Abundance at an Irrigated Agroecosystem in Malawi.

As countries of sub-Saharan Africa expand irrigation to improve food security and foster economic growth, it is important to quantify the malaria risk associated with this process. Irrigated ecosystems can be associated with increased malaria risk, but this relationship is not fully understood. We studied this relationship at the Bwanje Valley Irrigation Scheme (800 hectares) in Malawi. Household prevalence of malaria and indoor Anopheles density were quantified in two cross-sectional studies in 2016 and 2017 (5,829 residents of 1,091 households). Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate the association between distance to the irrigation scheme and malaria infection and mosquito density. The prevalence of malaria infection was 50.2% (2,765/5,511) by histidine-rich protein 2-based malaria rapid diagnostic tests and 30.1% (1,626/5,403) by microscopy. Individuals residing in households within 3 km of the scheme had significantly higher prevalence of infection (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18, 1.68); school-aged children had the highest prevalence among age groups (aOR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.11, 1.63). Individuals who reported bed net use, and households with higher socioeconomic status and higher level of education for household head or spouse, had lower odds of malaria infection. Female Anopheles mosquitoes (2,215 total; Anopheles arabiensis, 90.5%, Anopheles funestus, 9.5%) were significantly more abundant in houses located within 1.5 km of the scheme. Proximity of human dwellings to the irrigation scheme increased malaria risk, but higher household wealth index reduced risk. Therefore, multisectoral approaches that spur economic growth while mitigating increased malaria transmission are needed for people living close to irrigated sites.