Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on sales of sexual and reproductive health products: an ecological study of pharmacies in Kenya.

OBJECTIVES: To examine how sales of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) products varied among pharmacies in Kenya using administrative data, leveraging natural variation in the COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying policy restrictions between 2019 and 2021. DESIGN AND SETTING: Ecological study of pharmacies in Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: 761 pharmacies using the Maisha Meds product inventory management system (capturing 572 916 products sold). OUTCOMES: Sales quantity, price and revenue of SRH products sold per pharmacy per week. RESULTS: COVID-19 deaths were associated with a -2.97% (95% CI -3.82%, -2.11%) decrease in sales quantity, a 1.09% (95% CI 0.44%, 1.72%) increase in sales price and a -1.89% (-1.00%, -2.79%) decrease in revenues per pharmacy per week. Results were similar when considering new COVID-19 cases (per 1000) and the Average Policy Stringency Index. Results differed substantially between individual SRH products-a large decrease in sales quantity in pregnancy tests, injectables and emergency contraception, a modest decrease in condoms and no change in oral contraception. Sales price increases were similarly varied; four of the five most sold products were revenue neutral. CONCLUSIONS: We found a robust negative association between SRH sales at pharmacies in Kenya and COVID-19 reported cases, deaths and policy restriction. Although our data cannot definitively point to reduced access, existing evidence from Kenya regarding unchanged fertility intentions, increases in unintended pregnancies and reported reasons for non-use of contraceptives during COVID-19 suggests a prominent role of reduced access. While policymakers may have a role in sustaining access, their role may be limited by broader macroeconomic problems, such as global supply chain disruptions and inflation, during supply shocks.

Effect of community health worker home visits on antenatal care and institutional delivery: an analysis of secondary outcomes from a cluster randomised trial in Mali.

INTRODUCTION: Though community health workers (CHWs) have improved access to antenatal care (ANC) and institutional delivery in different settings, it is unclear what package and delivery strategy maximises impact. METHODS: This study reports a secondary aim of the Proactive Community Case Management cluster randomised trial, conducted between December 2016 and April 2020 in Mali. It evaluated whether proactive home visits can improve ANC access at a population level compared with passive site-based care. 137 unique village clusters, covering the entire study area, were stratified by health catchment area and distance to the nearest primary health centre. Within each stratum, clusters were randomly assigned to intervention or control arm. CHWs in intervention clusters proactively visited all homes to provide care. In the control clusters, CHWs provided the same services at their fixed community health post to care-seeking patients. Pregnant women 15-49 years old were enrolled in a series of community-based and facility-based visits. We analysed individual-level annual survey data from baseline and 24-month and 36-month follow-up for the secondary outcomes of ANC and institutional delivery, complemented with CHW monitoring data during the trial period. We compared outcomes between: (1) the intervention and control arms, and (2) the intervention period and baseline. RESULTS: With 2576 and 2536 pregnancies from 66 and 65 clusters in the intervention and control arms, respectively, the estimated risk ratios for receiving any ANC was 1.05 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.07), four or more ANC visits was 1.25 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.43) and ANC initiated in the first trimester was 1.11 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.19), relative to the controls; no differences in institutional delivery were found. However, both arms achieved large improvements in institutional delivery, compared with baseline. Monitoring data show that 19% and 2% of registered pregnancies received at least eight ANC contacts in the intervention and control arms, respectively. Six clusters, three from each arm had to be dropped in the last 2 years of the trial. CONCLUSIONS: Proactive home visits increased ANC and the number of antenatal contacts at the clinic and community levels. ANC and institutional delivery can be increased when provided without fees from professional CHWs in upgraded primary care clinics. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02694055.

Designing for two: How enhancing human-centered design with behavioral nudges unlocked breakthroughs to promote young women's psychological safety and access to reproductive care in Tanzania.

Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW; ages 15-24) in sub-Saharan Africa face many barriers to accessing preventive sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services. We drew upon the strengths of two complementary approaches, human-centered design and behavioral economics, to craft a holistic, highly-tailored, and empathetic intervention to motivate AGYW to seek contraception and HIV self-test kits at community drug shops. To encourage engagement, we embedded "nudge" strategies at different opportunity points (uncovered during our design research) along the care-seeking and service delivery journey. Our Malkia Klabu intervention is a loyalty program designed to enhance drug shops' role as SRH providers through which AGYW earned punches for shop purchases redeemable for small prizes; free SRH products could be requested at any time. From our 4-month pilot in Shinyanga, Tanzania, we assess the extent to which different behavioral nudge strategies motivated behaviors as predicted by synthesizing findings from (1) in-depth interviews with AGYW and shopkeepers, (2) shop program records, (3) shop observations, and (4) customer exit surveys. Overall, we find that AGYW and shopkeepers were motivated by many intervention features as intended and consistent with hypothesized mechanisms. We found strong evidence of social norms for helping to spread awareness of Malkia Klabu among peers, prize incentives for drawing AGYW back to shops, and the opt-out default membership gift of an HIV self-test kit for encouraging testing uptake and exploration of contraceptives. Shopkeepers in both arms noted increased community status from distributing HIV self-testing kits (ego). Malkia Klabu shopkeepers experienced increased customer traffic and business revenues (incentives), which reduced shopkeepers' gatekeeping tendencies and earned them additional recognition as champions of AGYW well-being. Integrating human-centered design and behavioral economics was effective for developing an innovative and effective intervention that simultaneously met the different needs of economic actors in support of public health priorities.

Sales and pricing decisions for HIV self-test kits among local drug shops in Tanzania: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Public health initiatives must look for ways to cost-effectively scale critical interventions to achieve high coverage. Private sector distribution channels, can potentially distribute preventive healthcare products to hard-to-reach populations, decongest public healthcare systems, and increase the sustainability of programs by getting customers to share costs. However, little is known about how sellers set prices for new products. By introducing a new product, HIV self-test kits, to local drug shops, we observed whether shops experimented with pricing, charged different buyers different prices, and whether prices converged within the local market over our study period. METHODS: From August to December 2019, we provided free HIV self-test kits, a new product, to 26 drug shops in Shinyanga, Tanzania to sell to the local community. We measured sales volume, price, customer age and sex using shop records. Using a multiple linear regression model, we conducted F-tests to determine whether shop, age, sex, and time (week) respectively were associated with price. We measured willingness-to-pay to restock test kits at the end of the study. RESULTS: 514 test kits were sold over 18 weeks; 69% of buyers were male, 40% were aged 25-34 and 32% aged 35-44. Purchase prices ranged from 1000 to 6000 Tsh (median 3000 Tsh; ~$1.30 USD). Within shops, prices were 11.3% higher for 25-34 and 12.7% higher for 45+ year olds relative to 15-19-year olds (p = 0.029) and 13.5% lower for men (p = 0.023) on average. Although prices varied between shops, prices varied little within shops over time, and did not converge over the study period or cluster geospatially. Mean maximum willingness-to-pay to restock was 2000 Tsh per kit. CONCLUSIONS: Shopkeepers charged buyers different prices depending on buyers' age and sex. There was limited variation in prices within shops over time and low demand among shopkeepers to restock at the end of the study. Given the subsidized global wholesale price ($2 USD or ~ 4600 Tsh), further demand creation and/or cost-reduction is required before HIV self-test kits can become commercially viable in drug shops in this setting. Careful consideration is needed to align the motivations of retailers with public health priorities while meeting their private for-profit needs.

Household saving during pregnancy and facility delivery in Zambia: a cross-sectional study.

Financial barriers cause many women in low- and middle-income countries to deliver outside of a health facility, contributing to maternal and neonatal mortality. Savings accrued during pregnancy can increase access to safe delivery services. We investigated the relationship between household saving during pregnancy and facility delivery. A cross-section of 2381 women who delivered a child in the previous 12 months was sampled from 40 health facility catchment areas across eight districts in three provinces in Zambia in April and May of 2016. During a household survey, women reported on their perceptions of the adequacy of their household savings during their recent pregnancy. Households were categorized based on women's responses as: did not save; saved but not enough; and saved enough. We estimated crude and adjusted associations between perceived adequacy of savings and facility delivery. We also explored associations between savings and expenditures on delivery. Overall, 51% of women surveyed reported that their household saved enough for delivery; 32% reported saving but not enough; and 17% did not save. Household wealth was positively associated with both categories of saving, while earlier attendance at antenatal care was positively associated with saving enough. Compared with women in households that did not save, those in households that saved but not enough (aOR 1.63; 95% CI: 1.17, 2.25) and saved enough (aOR 2.86; 95% CI: 2.05, 3.99) had significantly higher odds of facility delivery. Both categories of saving were significantly associated with higher overall expenditure on delivery, driven in large part by higher expenditures on baby clothes and transportation. Our findings suggest that interventions that encourage saving early in pregnancy may improve access to facility delivery services.

The per-patient costs of HIV services in South Africa: Systematic review and application in the South African HIV Investment Case.

BACKGROUND: In economic analyses of HIV interventions, South Africa is often used as a case in point, due to the availability of good epidemiological and programme data and the global relevance of its epidemic. Few analyses however use locally relevant cost data. We reviewed available cost data as part of the South African HIV Investment Case, a modelling exercise to inform the optimal use of financial resources for the country's HIV programme. METHODS: We systematically reviewed publication databases for published cost data covering a large range of HIV interventions and summarised relevant unit costs (cost per person receiving a service) for each. Where no data was found in the literature, we constructed unit costs either based on available information regarding ingredients and relevant public-sector prices, or based on expenditure records. RESULTS: Only 42 (5%) of 1,047 records included in our full-text review reported primary cost data on HIV interventions in South Africa, with 71% of included papers covering ART. Other papers detailed the costs of HCT, MMC, palliative and inpatient care; no papers were found on the costs of PrEP, social and behaviour change communication, and PMTCT. The results informed unit costs for 5 of 11 intervention categories included in the Investment Case, with the remainder costed based on ingredients (35%) and expenditure data (10%). CONCLUSIONS: A large number of modelled economic analyses of HIV interventions in South Africa use as inputs the same, often outdated, cost analyses, without reference to additional literature review. More primary cost analyses of non-ART interventions are needed.

Driver assessment service for people with mental illness.

Mental illness often leads to functional deficits that likely affect one's driving performance and may even pose threat to other road users. However, having a mental illness does not automatically preclude one from driving which is essential to mobility and productivity. Indeed, evaluating their fitness-to-drive would be of necessary. Despite that, there is still a lack of a local driving evaluation service that specifically addresses the impact of mental illness on driving capacity. This paper discusses the needs to evaluate the fitness-to-drive of people with mental illness. It advocates the development of such specific driver assessment service with a local example as illustration. Lastly, some of the challenges related to the drivers' responsibility to declare personal health status and large variety of assessment approaches are also discussed.

Failure to initiate HIV treatment in patients with high CD4 counts: evidence from demographic surveillance in rural South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the relationship between CD4 count at presentation and ART uptake and assess predictors of timely treatment initiation in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS: We used Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between first CD4 count and time from first CD4 to ART initiation among all adults presenting to the Hlabisa HIV Treatment and Care Programme between August 2011 and December 2012 with treatment-eligible CD4 counts (≤ 350 cells/mm3 ). For a subset of healthier patients (200 < CD4 ≤ 350 cells) residing within the population surveillance of the Africa Health Research Institute, we assessed sociodemographic, economic and geographic predictors hypothesised to influence ART uptake. RESULTS: A total of 4739 patients presented for care with eligible CD4 counts. The proportion initiating ART within six months of diagnosis was 67% (95% CI 63, 71) in patients with CD4 ≤ 50, 59% (0.55, 0.63) in patients with CD4 151-200 and 48% (95% CI 44, 51) in patients with CD4 301-350. The hazard of starting ART fell by 17% (95% CI 14, 20) for every 100-cell increase in baseline CD4 count. Among healthier patients under demographic surveillance (n = 193), observable sociodemographic, economic and geographic predictors did not add discriminatory power beyond CD4 count, age and sex to identify patients at high risk of non-initiation. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals presenting for HIV care at higher CD4 counts were less likely to initiate ART than patients presenting at low CD4 counts. Overall, ART uptake was low. Under new guidelines that establish ART eligibility regardless of CD4 count, patients with high CD4 counts may require additional interventions to encourage treatment initiation.

In vivo characterization of the murine venous system before and during dobutamine stimulation: implications for preclinical models of venous disease.

Although widely used as a preclinical model for studying venous diseases, there is a scarcity of in vivo characterizations of the naïve murine venous system. Additionally, previous studies on naïve veins (ex vivo) have not included the influence of surrounding structures and biomechanical forces. Using MRI, we noninvasively quantified the cross-sectional area, cyclic strain, and circularity of the venous system in young and old, male and female C57BL/6 mice. We investigated the most common venous locations used to perform venous disease research: the common jugular vein, suprarenal inferior vena cava (IVC), infrarenal IVC, common iliac vein, and common femoral vein. Our results elucidate age-dependent changes in venous cross-sectional area, which varied by location. Maximum cyclic strain, a parameter of lumen expansion, showed 10% change across the cardiac cycle, approximately half the magnitude of arteries. Veins demonstrated noncircular shapes, particularly in the core vasculature. The cardiovascular stressor dobutamine had only a small impact on the venous system. Also, our data demonstrate that the peripheral veins tend to decrease in cross-sectional area and circularity with age. Conversely, the IVC tends to increase in size and circularity with age, with males exhibiting larger variability in response to dobutamine compared to females. This work provides a foundation for drawing age and sex comparisons in disease models, and represents the first in vivo characterization of the murine venous system at rest and during the application of a pharmacological exercise surrogate.

Designing an optimal HIV programme for South Africa: Does the optimal package change when diminishing returns are considered?

BACKGROUND: South Africa has a large domestically funded HIV programme with highly saturated coverage levels for most prevention and treatment interventions. To further optimise its allocative efficiency, we designed a novel optimisation method and examined whether the optimal package of interventions changes when interaction and non-linear scale-up effects are incorporated into cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS: The conventional league table method in cost-effectiveness analysis relies on the assumption of independence between interventions. We added methodology that allowed the simultaneous consideration of a large number of HIV interventions and their potentially diminishing marginal returns to scale. We analysed the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 16 HIV interventions based on a well-calibrated epidemiological model that accounted for interaction and non-linear scale-up effects, a custom cost model, and an optimisation routine that iteratively added the most cost-effective intervention onto a rolling baseline before evaluating all remaining options. We compared our results with those based on a league table. RESULTS: The rank order of interventions did not differ substantially between the two methods- in each, increasing condom availability and male medical circumcision were found to be most cost-effective, followed by anti-retroviral therapy at current guidelines. However, interventions were less cost-effective throughout when evaluated under the optimisation method, indicating substantial diminishing marginal returns, with ICERs being on average 437% higher under our optimisation routine. CONCLUSIONS: Conventional league tables may exaggerate the cost-effectiveness of interventions when programmes are implemented at scale. Accounting for interaction and non-linear scale-up effects provides more realistic estimates in highly saturated real-world settings.

Prospects for HIV control in South Africa: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: The goal of virtual elimination of horizontal and mother-to-child HIV transmission in South Africa (SA) has been proposed, but there have been few systematic investigations of which interventions are likely to be most critical to reducing HIV incidence. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate SA's potential to achieve virtual elimination targets and to identify which interventions will be most critical to achieving HIV incidence reductions. DESIGN: A mathematical model was developed to simulate the population-level impact of different HIV interventions in SA. Probability distributions were specified to represent uncertainty around 32 epidemiological parameters that could be influenced by interventions, and correlation coefficients (r) were calculated to assess the sensitivity of the adult HIV incidence rates and mother-to-child transmission rates (2015-2035) to each epidemiological parameter. RESULTS: HIV incidence in SA adults (ages 15-49) is expected to decline from 1.4% in 2011-2012 to 0.29% by 2035 (95% CI: 0.10-0.62%). The parameters most strongly correlated with future adult HIV incidence are the rate of viral suppression after initiating antiretroviral treatment (ART) (r=-0.56), the level of condom use in non-marital relationships (r=-0.40), the phase-in of intensified risk-reduction counselling for HIV-positive adults (r=0.29), the uptake of medical male circumcision (r=-0.24) and the phase-in of universal ART eligibility (r=0.22). The paediatric HIV parameters most strongly associated with mother-to-child transmission rates are the relative risk of transmission through breastfeeding when the mother is receiving ART (r=0.70) and the rate of ART initiation during pregnancy (r=-0.16). CONCLUSIONS: The virtual elimination target of a 0.1% incidence rate in adults will be difficult to achieve. Interventions that address the infectiousness of patients after ART initiation will be particularly critical to achieving long-term HIV incidence declines in South Africa.