RESUMO
Accurate prediction of MCI-to-AD progression is an important yet challenging task. We introduce a new quantitative parameter: the atrophy-weighted standard uptake value ratio (awSUVR), defined as the PET SUVR divided by the hippocampal volume measured with MR, and evaluate whether it may provide better prediction of the MCI-to-AD progression. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used ADNI data to evaluate the prediction performances of the awSUVR against SUVR. 571, 363 and 252 18-F-Florbetaipir scans were selected based on criteria of conversion at the third, fifth and seventh year after the PET scans, respectively. Corresponding MR scans were segmented with Freesurfer and applied on PET for SUVR and awSUVR computation. We also searched for the optimal combination of target and reference regions. In addition to evaluating the overall prediction performances, we also evaluated the prediction for APOE4 carriers and non-carriers. For the scans with false predictions, we used 18-F-Flortaucipir scans to investigate the potential source of error. RESULTS: awSUVR provides more accurate prediction than the SUVR in all three progression criteria. The 5-year prediction accuracy/sensitivity/specificity is 90/81/93% for awSUVR and 86/81/88% for SUV. awSUVR also yields good 3- and 7-year prediction accuracy/sensitivity/specificity of 91/57/96 and 92/89/93, respectively. APOE4 carriers generally are slightly more difficult to predict for the progression. False negative prediction is found to either due to a near-cutoff mis-classification or potentially non-AD dementia pathology. False positive prediction is mainly due to the slightly delayed progression than the expected progression time. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated with ADNI data that 18-F-Florbetapir SUVR weighted with hippocampus volume may provide good prediction power with over 90% accuracy in MCI-to-AD progression.
