Development and validation of the CHIME simulation model to assess lifetime health outcomes of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in Chinese populations: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Existing predictive outcomes models for type 2 diabetes developed and validated in historical European populations may not be applicable for East Asian populations due to differences in the epidemiology and complications. Despite the continuum of risk across the spectrum of risk factor values, existing models are typically limited to diabetes alone and ignore the progression from prediabetes to diabetes. The objective of this study is to develop and externally validate a patient-level simulation model for prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in the East Asian population for predicting lifetime health outcomes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a health outcomes model from a population-based cohort of individuals with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes: Hong Kong Clinical Management System (CMS, 97,628 participants) from 2006 to 2017. The Chinese Hong Kong Integrated Modeling and Evaluation (CHIME) simulation model comprises of 13 risk equations to predict mortality, micro- and macrovascular complications, and development of diabetes. Risk equations were derived using parametric proportional hazard models. External validation of the CHIME model was assessed in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS, 4,567 participants) from 2011 to 2018 for mortality, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, renal failure, cataract, and development of diabetes; and against 80 observed endpoints from 9 published trials using 100,000 simulated individuals per trial. The CHIME model was compared to United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 (UKPDS-OM2) and Risk Equations for Complications Of type 2 Diabetes (RECODe) by assessing model discrimination (C-statistics), calibration slope/intercept, root mean square percentage error (RMSPE), and R2. CHIME risk equations had C-statistics for discrimination from 0.636 to 0.813 internally and 0.702 to 0.770 externally for diabetes participants. Calibration slopes between deciles of expected and observed risk in CMS ranged from 0.680 to 1.333 for mortality, myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, retinopathy, neuropathy, ulcer of the skin, cataract, renal failure, and heart failure; 0.591 for peripheral vascular disease; 1.599 for cerebrovascular disease; and 2.247 for amputation; and in CHARLS outcomes from 0.709 to 1.035. CHIME had better discrimination and calibration than UKPDS-OM2 in CMS (C-statistics 0.548 to 0.772, slopes 0.130 to 3.846) and CHARLS (C-statistics 0.514 to 0.750, slopes -0.589 to 11.411); and small improvements in discrimination and better calibration than RECODe in CMS (C-statistics 0.615 to 0.793, slopes 0.138 to 1.514). Predictive error was smaller for CHIME in CMS (RSMPE 3.53% versus 10.82% for UKPDS-OM2 and 11.16% for RECODe) and CHARLS (RSMPE 4.49% versus 14.80% for UKPDS-OM2). Calibration performance of CHIME was generally better for trials with Asian participants (RMSPE 0.48% to 3.66%) than for non-Asian trials (RMPSE 0.81% to 8.50%). Main limitations include the limited number of outcomes recorded in the CHARLS cohort, and the generalizability of simulated cohorts derived from trial participants. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that the CHIME model is a new validated tool for predicting progression of diabetes and its outcomes, particularly among Chinese and East Asian populations that has been lacking thus far. The CHIME model can be used by health service planners and policy makers to develop population-level strategies, for example, setting HbA1c and lipid targets, to optimize health outcomes.

Isolated 17,20-Lyase Deficiency in a CYB5A Mutated Female With Normal Sexual Development and Fertility.

Isolated 17,20-lyase deficiency may be caused by mutations in the CYP17A1 (coding for cytochrome P450c17), POR (coding for cytochrome P450 oxidoreductase) and CYB5A (coding for microsomal cytochrome b5) genes. Of these, mutations in the CYB5A gene have thus far only been described in genetic males who presented with methemoglobinemia and 46,XY disorders of sex development (DSD) due to 17,20-lyase deficiency. A 24-year-old Chinese woman presented to the hematology outpatient clinic with purplish discoloration of fingers, toes, and lips since childhood. Investigations confirmed methemoglobinemia. A homozygous c.105C>G (p.Tyr35Ter) nonsense mutation was detected in the CYB5A gene. Hormonal studies showed isolated 17,20-lyase deficiency. Interestingly, she had a completely normal female phenotype with no DSD, normal pubertal development, and spontaneous pregnancy giving birth uneventfully to a healthy female infant. The sex hormone-related features of genetic females with 17,20-lyase deficiency due to cytochrome b5 gene mutation appear to differ from that of females with 17,20-lyase deficiency caused by other genetic defects who presented with hypergonadotropic hypogonadism and infertility and differ from genetic males with the same mutation.

Risk Prediction Scores for Mortality, Cerebrovascular, and Heart Disease Among Chinese People With Type 2 Diabetes.

CONTEXT: Risk scores for cardiovascular and mortality outcomes have not been commonly applied in Chinese populations. OBJECTIVE: To develop and externally validate a set of parsimonious risk scores [University of Hong Kong-Singapore (HKU-SG)] to predict the risk of mortality, cerebrovascular disease, and ischemic heart disease among Chinese people with type 2 diabetes and compare HKU-SG risk scores to other existing ones. DESIGN: Retrospective population-based cohorts drawn from Hong Kong Hospital Authority health records from 2006 to 2014 for development and Singapore Ministry of Health records from 2008 to 2016 for validation. Separate five-year risk scores were derived using Cox proportional hazards models for each outcome. SETTING: Study participants were adults with type 2 diabetes aged 20 years or over, consisting of 678,750 participants from Hong Kong and 386,425 participants from Singapore. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Performance was evaluated by discrimination (Harrell C-index), and calibration plots comparing predicted against observed risks. RESULTS: All models had fair external discrimination. Among the risk scores for the diabetes population, ethnic-specific risk scores (HKU-SG and Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation) performed better than UK Prospective Diabetes Study and Risk Equations for Complications Of type 2 Diabetes models. External validation of the HKU-SG risk scores for mortality, cerebrovascular disease, and ischemic heart disease had corresponding C-indices of 0.778, 0.695, and 0.644. The HKU-SG models appeared well calibrated on visual plots, with predicted risks closely matching observed risks. CONCLUSIONS: The HKU-SG risk scores were developed and externally validated in two large Chinese population-based cohorts. The parsimonious use of clinical predictors compared with previous risk scores could allow wider implementation of risk estimation in diverse Chinese settings.

Salivary Cortisol and Cortisone After Low-Dose Corticotropin Stimulation in the Diagnosis of Adrenal Insufficiency.

CONTEXT: Basal and poststimulation salivary cortisol and cortisone levels can be useful in the diagnosis of adrenal insufficiency. However, little is known about the optimal cutoffs and performance characteristics of these tests. OBJECTIVE: To derive the cutoff values and study the performance characteristics of salivary cortisol and salivary cortisone in the diagnosis of adrenal insufficiency. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective study in a regional hospital in Hong Kong from January 2014 to September 2015. PARTICIPANTS: Fifty-six Chinese healthy volunteers and 171 patients suspected of having adrenal insufficiency. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All participants underwent low-dose short Synacthen test (LDSST) with intravenous injection of 1 µg of tetracosactide (Synacthen 1-24). Serum cortisol, salivary cortisol and cortisone levels were measured at baseline and 30 and 60 minutes afterward. RESULTS: Using the reference cutoff (mean - 2 standard deviations of post-LDSST peak serum cortisol) derived from healthy volunteers as the gold standard, receiver operating characteristic analysis of patients' data revealed that both post-LDSST peak salivary cortisol and cortisone performed better than basal tests. The most optimal cutoff values for serum cortisol as measured by immunoassay and for salivary cortisol and salivary cortisone as measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) were 376, 8.6, and 33.5 nmol/L, respectively, for post-LDSST peak values, and 170, 1.7, and 12.5 nmol/L, respectively, for basal values. CONCLUSIONS: We established method-specific reference cutoffs for serum cortisol, salivary cortisol, and salivary cortisone during LDSST. Both post-LDSST peak salivary cortisol and cortisone performed well as diagnostic tests for adrenal insufficiency. Their measurements by LC-MS/MS can alleviate problems associated with serum cortisol immunoassays.

Risk of fall for people with diabetes.

PURPOSE: To examine the risk of fall for people with diabetes compared with healthy control subjects. Correlation between tactile sensation and postural control was examined for subjects with diabetes. METHODS: Subjects with type 2 diabetes were classified into two groups: (i) diabetes without neuropathy (n = 23) and (ii) diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) (n = 9). Age-matched healthy control subjects (n = 32) were recruited. Tactile sensation, equilibrium scores (ES), strategy scores and sensory analysis scores from the Sensory Organization Test (SOT) were compared among the groups. RESULTS: Subjects with diabetes without neuropathy demonstrated impaired postural control upon the disruption of somatosensory inputs. Subjects with DPN lost balance upon being deprived of visual inputs. A decrease in tactile sensation was associated with a decrease in the ESs in all subjects with diabetes (r = -0.35 to -0.77; p < 0.05), and they tend to use more hip strategy for postural control upon being deprived of visual inputs. CONCLUSIONS: Different postural control strategies are adopted by various subgroups of subjects with diabetes. Subjects with DPN demonstrated a significant shift from ankle to hip strategies for balance tests when vision was deprived. Implications for Rehabilitation The severity of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) is associated with the risk of fall. Different compensatory strategies in balance control have been adopted by different subgroups of people with diabetes. In order to minimize the risk of fall, specific balance training program should be offered to different subgroups of people with diabetes. The balance training should emphasize on optimizing the competence of their existing compensatory postural control strategies.

Do the biomechanical properties of the ankle-foot complex influence postural control for people with Type 2 diabetes?

BACKGROUND: The ankle-foot complex plays an important role in the mechanics of postural control. The objectives of this study were to compare the biomechanical properties of the ankle-foot complex of people with diabetes who had or did not have peripheral neuropathy with those healthy individuals; and to examine its correlation with postural control. METHODS: A total of 64 individuals participated in this study: 9 people with diabetic peripheral neuropathy, 23 diabetes without neuropathy, and 32 healthy controls. A hand-held ultrasound indentation system was used to assess the soft tissue biomechanical properties of the ankle-foot complex. The Sensory Organization test was performed using The Smart EquiTest system to assess postural control. FINDINGS: The soft tissue of the Achilles tendon was significantly thickened in all individuals with diabetes (P<0.001), and was associated with the vestibular ratio (r=0.40; P<0.05). The Young's modulus of the plantar soft tissue was significantly increased in the diabetic neuropathy group (all P<0.05). Also, the Young's modulus of the plantar soft tissue at the first metatarsal head was positively correlated with the somatosensory ratio (r=0.46; P<0.05) and visual ratio (r=0.39; P<0.05). INTERPRETATION: Diabetic patients with or without neuropathy had a thicker Achilles tendon and stiffer plantar soft tissue than the healthy control. Changes in the biomechanical properties of the ankle-foot complex were correlated with the use of vestibular, somatosensory or visual inputs to maintain balance in individuals with diabetes.

Corticotropin tests for hypothalamic-pituitary- adrenal insufficiency: a metaanalysis.

CONTEXT: The diagnostic value of tests for detecting hypothalamic-pituitary adrenal insufficiency (HPAI) is controversial. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to compare standard-dose and low-dose corticotropin tests for diagnosing HPAI. DATA SOURCES: We searched the PubMed database from 1966-2006 for studies reporting diagnostic value of standard-dose or low-dose corticotropin tests, with patient-level data obtained from original investigators. STUDY SELECTION: Eligible studies had more than 10 patients. All subjects were evaluated because of suspicion for chronic HPAI, and patient-level data were available. We excluded studies with no accepted reference standard for HPAI (insulin hypoglycemia or metyrapone test) if test subjects were in the intensive care unit or if only normal healthy subjects were used as controls. DATA EXTRACTION: We constructed receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves using patient-level data from each study and then merged results to create summary ROC curves, adjusting for study size and cortisol assay method. Diagnostic value of tests was measured by calculating area under the ROC curve (AUC) and likelihood ratios. DATA SYNTHESIS: Patient-level data from 13 of 23 studies (57%; 679 subjects) were included in the metaanalysis. The AUC were as follows: low-dose corticotropin test, 0.92 (95% confidence interval 0.89-0.94), and standard-dose corticotropin test, 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.74-0.84). Among patients with paired data (seven studies, 254 subjects), diagnostic value of low-dose corticotropin test was superior to standard-dose test (AUC 0.94 and 0.85, respectively; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Low-dose corticotropin test was superior to standard-dose test for diagnosing chronic HPAI, although it has technical limitations.

The use of aldosterone-renin ratio as a diagnostic test for primary hyperaldosteronism and its test characteristics under different conditions of blood sampling.

Recent reviews recommended the use of the aldosterone/renin ratio (ARR) to screen for primary hyperaldosteronism. However, widely different cutoff levels have been proposed, and test characteristics of ARR under different conditions of sampling are not known. We conducted a retrospective review among 45 subjects with carefully validated diagnoses of primary hyperaldosteronism and 17 subjects with essential hypertension to study the utility of ARR. Sixty-two patients with 75 sets of plasma renin activity (PRA), aldosterone, and ARR values from a postural study and 48 sets of values from a saline suppression test were analyzed. Ninety-four percent of these subjects underwent investigations because of hypokalemic hypertension.ARR yielded larger areas under the curve in the receiver-operating-characteristics curve than PRA or aldosterone under all conditions of testing. Our results confirmed the superiority of ARR to either aldosterone or PRA alone as a diagnostic test for primary hyperaldosteronism.ARR cutoff levels were significantly affected by the condition of testing. Depending on posture and time of day, it varied from 13.1-35.0 ng/dl per ng/ml.h in our study population. When using ARR for screening primary hyperaldosteronism, posture and time of sampling should be standardized both within and between centers to minimize variability in cutoff levels.

Increased bone mineral density in patients with chronic hypoparathyroidism.

Bone mineral density (BMD) has been shown to be increased in postmenopausal females with postthyroidectomy hypoparathyroidism, but it is not known whether similar gains occur in patients with idiopathic hypoparathyroidism. In this study, we measured the BMD of lumbar spine and proximal femur in 14 patients, 8 with idiopathic hypoparathyroidism and 6 with postthyroidectomy hypoparathyroidism, using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Their age ranged from 23-57 yr old, with a mean of 42.5 yr. The results showed that patients with hypoparathyroidism had a higher BMD than the normal age- and sex-matched population. This was particularly evident at the lumbar spine (L2-L4), with positive Z-score of 1.93 +/- 1.03, whereas Z-score at the femoral neck was 1.14 +/- 0.62 SD. Subgroup analysis showed that those with postthyroidectomy hypoparathyroidism had a mean lumbar spine BMD of 1.434 g/cm(2) and femoral neck BMD of 1.026 g/cm(2), compared with a mean BMD of 1.364 g/cm(2) and 1.022 g/cm(2) at spine and hip, respectively, for those with idiopathic hypoparathyroidism. Statistical analysis did not reveal any significant difference in the BMD, T-score, and Z-score of the bone, at these two sites, between the two groups. In conclusion, the state of chronic hypoparathyroidism is associated with increased BMD, especially at the lumbar spine. Those with idiopathic hypoparathyroidism have a similar degree of increase in BMD as those with postthyroidectomy hypoparathyroidism.