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1.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 11606, 2021 06 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34078929

RESUMO

The devastating trail of Covid-19 is characterized by one of the highest mortality-to-infected ratio for a pandemic. Restricted therapeutic and early-stage vaccination still renders social exclusion through lockdown as the key containment mode.To understand the dynamics, we propose PHIRVD, a mechanistic infection propagation model that Machine Learns (Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo) the evolution of six infection stages, namely healthy susceptible (H), predisposed comorbid susceptible (P), infected (I), recovered (R), herd immunized (V) and mortality (D), providing a highly reliable mortality prediction profile for 18 countries at varying stages of lockdown. Training data between 10 February to 29 June 2020, PHIRVD can accurately predict mortality profile up to November 2020, including the second wave kinetics. The model also suggests mortality-to-infection ratio as a more dynamic pandemic descriptor, substituting reproduction number. PHIRVD establishes the importance of early and prolonged but strategic lockdown to contain future relapse, complementing futuristic vaccine impact.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Número Básico de Reprodução , Teorema de Bayes , COVID-19/etiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Comorbidade , Suscetibilidade a Doenças , Humanos , Imunidade Coletiva , Índia/epidemiologia , Cinética , Aprendizado de Máquina , Cadeias de Markov , Modelos Teóricos , Método de Monte Carlo , Mortalidade , Reino Unido/epidemiologia
2.
Phys Rev Lett ; 119(15): 151801, 2017 Oct 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29077474

RESUMO

It is a challenging task to explain, in terms of a simple and compelling new physics scenario, the intriguing discrepancies between the standard model expectations and the data for the neutral-current observables R_{K} and R_{K^{*}}, as well as the charged-current observables R(D) and R(D^{*}). We show that this can be achieved in an effective theory with only two unknown parameters. In addition, this class of models predicts some interesting signatures in the context of both B decays as well as high-energy collisions.

3.
Phys Rev Lett ; 96(14): 141802, 2006 Apr 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16712064

RESUMO

It has been suggested that the pair annihilation of dark matter particles chi with mass between 0.5 and 20 MeV into e+e- pairs could be responsible for the excess flux (detected by the INTEGRAL satellite) of 511 keV photons coming from the central region of our Galaxy. The simplest way to achieve the required cross section while respecting existing constraints is to introduce a new vector boson U with mass M(U) below a few hundred MeV. We point out that over most of the allowed parameter space, the process e+e--->U(gamma), followed by the decay of U into either an e+e- pair or an invisible (nu(-)nu or chi(-)chi) channel, should lead to signals detectable by current B-factory experiments. A smaller, but still substantial, region of parameter space can also be probed at the Phi factory DAPhiNE.

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