Development and Evaluation of Ensemble Learning-based Environmental Methane Detection and Intensity Prediction Models.

The environmental impacts of global warming driven by methane (CH4) emissions have catalyzed significant research initiatives in developing novel technologies that enable proactive and rapid detection of CH4. Several data-driven machine learning (ML) models were tested to determine how well they identified fugitive CH4 and its related intensity in the affected areas. Various meteorological characteristics, including wind speed, temperature, pressure, relative humidity, water vapor, and heat flux, were included in the simulation. We used the ensemble learning method to determine the best-performing weighted ensemble ML models built upon several weaker lower-layer ML models to (i) detect the presence of CH4 as a classification problem and (ii) predict the intensity of CH4 as a regression problem. The classification model performance for CH4 detection was evaluated using accuracy, F1 score, Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC), with the top-performing model being 97.2%, 0.972, 0.945 and 0.995, respectively. The R 2 score was used to evaluate the regression model performance for CH4 intensity prediction, with the R 2 score of the best-performing model being 0.858. The ML models developed in this study for fugitive CH4 detection and intensity prediction can be used with fixed environmental sensors deployed on the ground or with sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for mobile detection.

Risk-based merging decisions for autonomous vehicles.

INTRODUCTION: The safe freeway merging operation for fully Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) in mixed traffic (i.e., the presence of AVs and non-AVs in a traffic stream) is a challenging task. Under a mixed traffic environment, an AV merging operation could significantly increase conflict risks and reduce operational efficiency. METHOD: This study quantifies the freeway merging conflict risk and develops a freeway merging decision strategy based on conflict risk assessment for an AV attempting to merge to a traffic stream with non-AVs on the freeway. The performance of the risk-based merging decision strategy is evaluated in uncongested, near-congested, and congested traffic conditions. RESULTS: The analyses show that the risk-based merging strategy causes less abrupt deceleration of an AV's immediate upstream vehicle in the target lane on the freeway compared to the based models (i.e., two models based on gap acceptance concepts and a safe gap model based on a surrogate measure, 'Time-to-Collision (TTC)'). The risk-based merging strategy meets the minimum safe gap between an AV intending to merge and its immediate downstream vehicle in the target lane. The risk-based merging strategy produces lower conflict risk in terms of 'Time Exposed Time-to-Collision (TET)' and 'Time Integrated Time-to-Collision (TIT)' compared to the base models. Moreover, the risk-based merging strategy has a lower impact on the average speed of traffic in the target lane compared to the base models considered in this study. CONCLUSIONS: The risk-based merging strategy shows higher safety benefits for an AV's merging operation compared to base models. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: The findings of this research would help design AV controllers for improving the safety of an AV merging operation in a mixed traffic stream.

Investigating the impacts of crash prediction models on quantifying safety effectiveness of Adaptive Signal Control Systems.

INTRODUCTION: Adaptive Signal Control System (ASCS) can improve both operational and safety benefits at signalized corridors. METHODS: This paper develops a series of models accounting for model forms and possible predictors and implements these models in Empirical Bayes (EB) and Fully Bayesian (FB) frameworks for ASCS safety evaluation studies. Different models are validated in terms of the ability to reduce the potential bias and variance of prediction and improve the safety effectiveness estimation accuracy using real-world crash data from non-ASCS sites. This paper then develops the safety effectiveness of ASCS at six different corridors with a total of 65 signalized intersections with the same type of ASCS, in South Carolina. RESULTS: Validation results show that the FB model that accounts for traffic volume, roadway geometric features, year factor, and spatial effects shows the best performance among all models. The study findings reveal that ASCS reduces crash frequencies in the total crash, fatal and injury crash, and angle crash for most of the intersections. The safety effectiveness of ASCS varies with different intersection features (i.e., AADT at major streets, number of legs at an intersection, the number of through lanes on major streets, the number of access points on minor streets, and the speed limit at major streets). CONCLUSIONS: ASCS is associated with crash reductions, and its safety effects vary with different intersection features. Practical Applications: The findings of this research encourage more ASCS deployments and provide insights into selecting ASCS deployment sites for reducing crashes considering the variation of the safety effectiveness of ASCS.

Assessing the likelihood of secondary crashes on freeways with Adaptive Signal Control System deployed on alternate routes.

INTRODUCTION: Reducing the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes will provide significant safety, operational and environmental benefits. This paper presents a method for assessing the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes with Adaptive Signal Control Systems (ASCS) deployed on alternate routes that are typically used by diverted freeway traffic to avoid any delay or congestion due to a freeway primary crash. METHOD: The method includes four steps: (1) identification of secondary crashes, (2) verification of alternate routes, (3) assessment of the likelihood of secondary crashes for freeways with ASCS deployed on alternate routes and non-ASCS (i.e. pre-timed, semi- or fully-actuated) alternate routes, and (4) investigation of unobserved heterogeneity of the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes. Four freeway sections (i.e., two with ASCS deployed on alternate routes and two non-ASCS alternate routes) in South Carolina are considered. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Findings from the logistic regression modeling reveal significant reduction in the likelihood of secondary crashes for one freeway section (i.e., Charleston I-26 E) with ASCS deployed on alternate route. Other factors such as rear-end crash, dark or limited light, peak period, and annual average daily traffic contribute to the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes. Furthermore, random-parameter logistic regression model results for Charleston I-26 E reveal that unobserved heterogeneity of ASCS effect exists across the observations and ASCS are associated with the reduction of the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes for 84% of the observations (i.e., primary crashes). Location of the primary crash on the freeway is observed to affect the benefit of ASCS toward freeway secondary crash reduction as the primary crash's location determines how many upstream freeway vehicles will be able to take the alternate route. Practical Applications: Based on the findings, it is recommended that the South Carolina Department of Transportation (SCDOT) considers deploying ASCS on alternate routes parallel to freeway sections where high percentages of secondary crashes are found.

Investigating hierarchical effects of adaptive signal control system on crash severity using random-parameter ordered regression models incorporating observed heterogeneity.

By handling conflicting traffic movements and establishing dynamic coordination between intersections in real-time, the Adaptive Signal Control System (ASCS) can potentially improve the operation and safety of signalized intersections on a corridor. This study identifies the hierarchical effects of ASCS on the crash severity by exploring the heterogeneous effect of ASCS on the crash severity. Four different random-parameter ordered regression models (two ordered probit models, and two ordered logit models) are developed and compared. The analysis reveals that the random-parameter ordered probit and logit models (ROP and ROL) with observed heterogeneity perform better than the random-parameter ordered probit and logit models (RP and RL) without observed heterogeneity in terms of the Akaike information criteria and the goodness of fit of the model. The ROP model performs better than the ROL model in terms of classification model performance measures. The ROP model enables parameters (i.e., the coefficients of the explanatory variables) to vary as a function of explanatory variables as well as across observations, thus accounting for both observed (captured by available explanatory variables) and unobserved (not captured by available explanatory variables) heterogeneity. The analysis reveals that the presence of ASCS is associated with lower crash severity. In this study, observed heterogeneity of ASCS effects on the crash severity is captured by variables related to the intersection and corridor features. Other contributing factors besides ASCS, such as annual average daily traffic, speed limit, lighting, peak period, crash type (rear-end, angle), and pedestrian involvements, are also associated with the probability of crash severity. Unobserved heterogeneity of the effect of angle crash type on the crash severity is found to exist across the observations. The findings of this research have practical implications for establishing ASCS implementation guidelines in lowering the probability of higher crash severity.