Author Correction: Choosing the future of Antarctica.

On page 234 of this Perspective, '50% decrease' has been corrected online to '50% increase' in the sentence "The pH of surface waters south of 60° S decreased by 0.2 between 2017 and 2070, equivalent to a 50% increase in the concentration of hydrogen ions since the pre-industrial period1."

Choosing the future of Antarctica.

We present two narratives on the future of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, from the perspective of an observer looking back from 2070. In the first scenario, greenhouse gas emissions remained unchecked, the climate continued to warm, and the policy response was ineffective; this had large ramifications in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, with worldwide impacts. In the second scenario, ambitious action was taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to establish policies that reduced anthropogenic pressure on the environment, slowing the rate of change in Antarctica. Choices made in the next decade will determine what trajectory is realized.

Extinction and recolonization of maritime Antarctica in the limpet Nacella concinna (Strebel, 1908) during the last glacial cycle: toward a model of Quaternary biogeography in shallow Antarctic invertebrates.

Quaternary glaciations in Antarctica drastically modified geographical ranges and population sizes of marine benthic invertebrates and thus affected the amount and distribution of intraspecific genetic variation. Here, we present new genetic information in the Antarctic limpet Nacella concinna, a dominant Antarctic benthic species along shallow ice-free rocky ecosystems. We examined the patterns of genetic diversity and structure in this broadcast spawner along maritime Antarctica and from the peri-Antarctic island of South Georgia. Genetic analyses showed that N. concinna represents a single panmictic unit in maritime Antarctic. Low levels of genetic diversity characterized this population; its median-joining haplotype network revealed a typical star-like topology with a short genealogy and a dominant haplotype broadly distributed. As previously reported with nuclear markers, we detected significant genetic differentiation between South Georgia Island and maritime Antarctica populations. Higher levels of genetic diversity, a more expanded genealogy and the presence of more private haplotypes support the hypothesis of glacial persistence in this peri-Antarctic island. Bayesian Skyline plot and mismatch distribution analyses recognized an older demographic history in South Georgia. Approximate Bayesian computations did not support the persistence of N. concinna along maritime Antarctica during the last glacial period, but indicated the resilience of the species in peri-Antarctic refugia (South Georgia Island). We proposed a model of Quaternary Biogeography for Antarctic marine benthic invertebrates with shallow and narrow bathymetric ranges including (i) extinction of maritime Antarctic populations during glacial periods; (ii) persistence of populations in peri-Antarctic refugia; and (iii) recolonization of maritime Antarctica following the deglaciation process.

Mite dispersal among the Southern Ocean Islands and Antarctica before the last glacial maximum.

It has long been maintained that the majority of terrestrial Antarctic species are relatively recent, post last glacial maximum, arrivals with perhaps a few microbial or protozoan taxa being substantially older. Recent studies have questioned this 'recolonization hypothesis', though the range of taxa examined has been limited. Here, we present the first large-scale study for mites, one of two dominant terrestrial arthropod groups in the region. Specifically, we provide a broad-scale molecular phylogeny of a biologically significant group of ameronothroid mites from across the maritime and sub-Antarctic regions. Applying different dating approaches, we show that divergences among the ameronothroid mite genera Podacarus, Alaskozetes and Halozetes significantly predate the Pleistocene and provide evidence of independent dispersals across the Antarctic Polar Front. Our data add to a growing body of evidence demonstrating that many taxa have survived glaciation of the Antarctic continent and the sub-Antarctic islands. Moreover, they also provide evidence of a relatively uncommon trend of dispersals from islands to continental mainlands. Within the ameronothroid mites, two distinct clades with specific habitat preferences (marine intertidal versus terrestrial/supralittoral) exist, supporting a model of within-habitat speciation rather than colonization from marine refugia to terrestrial habitats. The present results provide additional impetus for a search for terrestrial refugia in an area previously thought to have lacked ice-free ground during glacial maxima.

Physiological variation and phenotypic plasticity: a response to 'Plasticity in arthropod cryotypes' by Hawes and Bale.

In a recent publication, Hawes and Bale provide an extended discussion of phenotypic plasticity in the context of low temperature responses of animals. They argue that phenotypic plasticity may be partitioned phylogenetically at several levels and go on to explore these levels, and cold hardiness strategies that they term cryotypes, which in their view constitute cryotypic plasticity. Here we argue that this attempt to partition plasticity is misleading, that the term 'genotypic plasticity' is potentially highly confusing and a misnomer for physiological variance, and that the term 'superplasticity' should not be used. We also show that a definition of strategies as cryotypes is not useful and that the hypothesis about the relationship between evolutionary derivation and extent of plasticity in freeze-avoiding vs freeze-tolerant species is not supported by current evidence.

Variation in scorpion metabolic rate and rate-temperature relationships: implications for the fundamental equation of the metabolic theory of ecology.

The fundamental equation of the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) indicates that most of the variation in metabolic rate are a consequence of variation in organismal size and environmental temperature. Although evolution is thought to minimize energy costs of nutrient transport, its effects on metabolic rate via adaptation, acclimatization or acclimation are considered small, and restricted mostly to variation in the scaling constant, b(0). This contrasts strongly with many conclusions of evolutionary physiology and life-history theory, making closer examination of the fundamental equation an important task for evolutionary biologists. Here we do so using scorpions as model organisms. First, we investigate the implications for the fundamental equation of metabolic rate variation and its temperature dependence in the scorpion Uroplectes carinatus following laboratory acclimation. During 22 days of acclimation at 25 degrees C metabolic rates declined significantly (from 127.4 to 78.2 microW; P = 0.0001) whereas mean body mass remained constant (367.9-369.1 mg; P = 0.999). In field-fresh scorpions, metabolic rate-temperature (MRT) relationships varied substantially within and among individuals, and therefore had low repeatability values (tau = 0.02) and no significant among-individual variation (P = 0.181). However, acclimation resulted in a decline in within-individual variation of MRT slopes which subsequently revealed significant differences among individuals (P = 0.0031) and resulted in a fourfold increase in repeatability values (tau = 0.08). These results highlight the fact that MRT relationships can show substantial, directional variation within individuals over time. Using a randomization model we demonstrate that the reduction in metabolic rate with acclimation while body mass remains constant causes a decline both in the value of the mass-scaling exponent and the coefficient of determination. Furthermore, interspecific comparisons of activation energy, E, demonstrated significant variation in scorpions (0.09-1.14 eV), with a mean value of 0.77 eV, significantly higher than the 0.6-0.7 eV predicted by the fundamental equation. Our results add to a growing body of work questioning both the theoretical basis and empirical support for the MTE, and suggest that alternative models of metabolic rate variation incorporating explicit consideration of life history evolution deserve further scrutiny.

Gas exchange characteristics, metabolic rate and water loss of the Heelwalker, Karoophasma biedouwensis (Mantophasmatodea: Austrophasmatidae).

This study presents the first physiological information for a member of the wingless Mantophasmatodea, or Heelwalkers. This species shows cyclic gas exchange with no evidence of a Flutter period (more typical of discontinuous gas exchange in insects) and no indication that the spiracles are fully occluded during quiescent metabolism. Standard metabolic rate at 20 degrees C was 21.32+/-2.73 microl CO(2)h(-1) (mean+/-S.E.), with a Q(10) (10-25 degrees C) of 1.7. Increases in V()CO(2) associated with variation in mass and with trial temperature were modulated by an increase in burst period volume and a decline in cycle frequency. Total water loss rate, determined by infrared gas analysis, was 0.876+/-0.08 mg H(2)Oh(-1) (range 0.602-1.577, n=11) whilst cuticular water loss rate, estimated by linear regression of total water loss rate and metabolic rate, was 0.618+/-0.09 mg H(2)Oh(-1) (range 0.341-1.363, n=11). Respiratory water loss rate was therefore no more than 29% of the total rate of water loss. Both total water loss rate and estimated cuticular water loss rate were significantly repeatable, with intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.745 and 0.553, respectively.

Temperature- and body mass-related variation in cyclic gas exchange characteristics and metabolic rate of seven weevil species: Broader implications.

The influence of temperature on metabolic rate and characteristics of the gas exchange patterns of flightless, sub-Antarctic Ectemnorhinus-group species from Heard and Marion islands was investigated. All of the species showed cyclic gas exchange with no Flutter period, indicating that these species are not characterized by discontinuous gas exchange cycles. Metabolic rate estimates were substantially lower in this study than in a previous one of a subset of the species, demonstrating that open-system respirometry methods provide more representative estimates of standard metabolic rate than do many closed-system methods. We recommend that the latter, and especially constant-pressure methods, either be abandoned for estimates of standard metabolic rate in insects, or have their outputs subject to careful scrutiny, given the wide availability of the former. V(.)CO(2) increase with an increase in temperature (range: 0-15 degrees C) was modulated by an increase in cycle frequency, but typically not by an increase in burst volume. Previous investigations of temperature-related changes in cyclic gas exchange (both cyclic and discontinuous) in several other insect species were therefore substantiated. Interspecific mass-scaling of metabolic rate (ca. 0.466-0.573, excluding and including phylogenetic non-independence, respectively) produced an exponent lower than 0.75 (but not distinguishable from it or from 0.67). The increase of metabolic rate with mass was modulated by an increase in burst volume and not by a change in cycle frequency, in keeping with investigations of species showing discontinuous gas exchange. These findings are discussed in the context of the emerging macrophysiological metabolic theory of ecology.

Inertia in physiological traits: Embryonopsis halticella caterpillars (Yponomeutidae) across the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone.

Geographic variation is characteristic of many physiological traits at the population and species levels. However, several recent studies have suggested that population-level variation is either limited or that it is mostly a consequence of phenotypic plasticity. Here we show that there is considerable physiological inertia in cold hardiness, upper thermal tolerance limits and desiccation resistance in caterpillars of the sub-Antarctic moth Embryonopsis halticella Eaton, such that populations from two climatically different islands are physiologically very similar. Both populations are moderately chill tolerant, with no difference in the supercooling points of caterpillars (-17 to -20 degrees C). Within their host plants caterpillars of both populations freeze at substantially higher, and statistically equivalent temperatures (-9.5 to -11.5 degrees C). The populations also have similar upper lethal limits (38 degrees C), and survival times of dry conditions (6-170 h depending on mass). The previously inexplicably low freezing point of caterpillars at the climatically less severe Marion Island seems likely a consequence of physiological inertia given that the freezing point of caterpillars within their hosts is only a few degrees below absolute minima at the older, and colder, Heard Island. Lack of adaptive geographic variation in physiological traits has consequences for models of range limits, and highlights the importance of exploring phenotypic plasticity as a response to climatic variation.

Metabolic rate variation in Glossina pallidipes (Diptera: Glossinidae): gender, ageing and repeatability.

Despite the importance of metabolic rate in determining flight time of tsetse and in mediating the influence of abiotic variables on life history parameters (and hence abundance and distribution), metabolic rate measurements and their repeatability have not been widely assessed in these flies. We investigate age-related changes in standard metabolic rate (SMR) and its repeatability, using flow-through respirometry, for a variety of feeding, gender and pregnancy classes during early adult development in laboratory-reared individuals of the tsetse fly, Glossina pallidipes. Standard metabolic rate (144-635 microW) was generally within 22% of previous estimates, though lower than the values found using closed system respirometry. There was no significant difference between the genders, but metabolic rate increased consistently with age, probably owing to flight muscle development. Repeatability of metabolic rate was generally high (r=0.6-.09), but not in younger teneral adults and pregnant females (r approximately equal to 0.05-0.4). In these individuals, low repeatability values are a consequence of muscle or in utero larval development. Tsetse and other flies generally have a much higher metabolic rate, for a given size, than do other insect species investigated to date.

Mid-domain models of species richness gradients: assumptions, methods and evidence.

Patterns of species richness along latitudinal, elevational and depth gradients often exhibit a mid-gradient peak. Similar patterns with a mid-domain peak in richness are produced, as a result of geometric constraints on species distributions, by models that randomize species range size and placement over a bounded gradient. Proponents of these so-called mid-domain models argue that they provide an appropriate null hypothesis for examining species richness patterns along spatial gradients. Furthermore, some claim that because these models seem to explain a large proportion of the large-scale spatial variation in richness, geometric constraints on species distribution are in fact the cause of these patterns. A critical examination of model assumptions reveals that some are unrealistic, conceptually flawed or internally inconsistent. Additionally, tests of mid-domain models have suffered from methodological deficiencies derived from arbitrariness and circularity in the definition of domain boundaries, collapsing two-dimensional (2-D) patterns into a single dimension (1-D), and the use of interpolated ranges, all of which can bias test results in favour of the models. Tests have also been statistically naive by using fairly insensitive measures of deviation between observed and predicted patterns and ignoring the increased probability of Type I error that can result in analyses of spatially autocorrelated data. In spite of this, a review of the empirical evidence indicates that most studies do not show a high degree of concordance between observed and predicted species richness patterns, particularly in 2-D. Additionally, spatial patterns of variation in range size and species turnover do not unequivocally support mid-domain models. Thus, the models do not adequately describe observed species richness gradients and thus fail to explain them. Although mid-domain models have served a useful purpose in drawing attention to the need to clarify the null expectation in the study of species richness gradients, their use appears to be severely limited by difficulties associated with the treatment of ranges, boundary definitions and a lack of clarity regarding the extent to which the observed data should be used to generate the null patterns.

Respiratory water loss in insects.

The contribution of respiratory transpiration to overall water loss in insects is contentious. Misgivings concerning the importance of this route of water loss have arisen largely as a consequence of work on discontinuous gas exchange cycles (DGC). Most studies have found that respiratory water loss constitutes only a small proportion of total water loss. Thus, it has been argued that modulation of metabolic rate and/or the components of the DGC is unlikely to constitute a fitness benefit. In contrast to these intraspecific studies, interspecific comparative data suggest that, at least in xeric species, respiratory transpiration is an important component of water loss. However, these arguments are confounded by several factors. In DGC-based studies, these include multiple effects of the experimental treatments, the absence of a null expectation for the contribution of respiratory to total water loss, and problems with the use of proportions as a way of assessing the importance of respiratory water loss. The interspecific studies are confounded by the likely significance of influences other than water conservation on metabolic rate, the absence of analyses of phylogenetic independent contrasts, and little information on behavioral differences between species. Future work should be based on a strong inference approach and designed in such a way that these problems can be resolved. Moreover, in the case of the DGC it should be recognized that several factors are likely to influence this gas exchange pattern, and that they probably act in concert, especially during dormancy.

Physiological variation in insects: large-scale patterns and their implications.

In this paper we demonstrate how broad scale comparative physiology has an important role to play in informing a variety of assumptions made in macroecology. We do so by examining large-scale geographic variation in insect development, thermal tolerance and metabolic rate. From these studies, and those from the literature on insect water loss and thermoregulation, we show that there is often a bias to the geographic extent of available empirical data. Studies of cold hardiness are most usually undertaken at high latitudes, while investigations of upper thermal tolerances and water loss are most common in warm arid regions. Likewise, we demonstrate that much variation in insect physiological tolerances is partitioned at higher taxonomic levels, which has important implications for comparative physiology. Intriguingly, data on the full range of variables we review are available for only three species. We also show that, despite its importance, body size is regularly reported in only some kinds of investigations (metabolic rate, water loss rate), whereas in others (upper lethal temperature, cold hardiness, development) this variable is often ignored. In short, although large-scale comparative physiology can contribute considerable understanding to both physiology and ecology, there is much that remains to be done.

Species richness, environmental correlates, and spatial scale: a test using South African birds.

Energy and habitat heterogeneity are important correlates of spatial variation in species richness, though few investigations have sought to determine simultaneously their relative influences. Here we use the South African avifauna to examine the extent to which species richness is related to these variables and how these relationships depend on spatial grain. Taking spatial autocorrelation and area effects into account, we find that primary productivity, precipitation, absolute minimum temperature, and, at coarser resolutions, habitat heterogeneity account for most of the variation in species richness. Species richness and productivity are positively related, whereas the relationship between potential evapotranspiration (PET) and richness is unimodal. This is largely because of the constraining effects of low rainfall on productivity in high-PET areas. The increase in the importance of vegetation heterogeneity as an explanatory variable is caused largely by an increase in the range of vegetation heterogeneity included at coarse resolutions and is probably also a result of the positive effects of environmental heterogeneity on species richness. Our findings indicate that species richness is correlated with, and hence likely a function of, several variables, that spatial resolution and extent must be taken into account during investigations of these relationships, and that surrogate measures for productivity should be interpreted cautiously.

The animal species-body size distribution of Marion Island.

Body size is one of the most significant features of animals. Not only is it correlated with many life history and ecological traits, but it also may influence the abundance of species within, and their membership of, assemblages. Understanding of the latter processes is frequently based on a comparison of model outcomes with the frequency of species of different body mass within natural assemblages. Consequently, the form of these frequency distributions has been much debated. Empirical data usually concern taxonomically delineated groups, such as classes or orders, whereas the processes ultimately apply to whole assemblages. Here, we report the most complete animal species-body size distribution to date for those free-living species breeding on sub-Antarctic Marion Island and using the terrestrial environment. Extending over 15 orders of magnitude of variation in body mass, this distribution is bimodal, with separate peaks for invertebrates and vertebrates. Under logarithmic transformation, the distribution for vertebrates is not significantly skewed, whereas that for invertebrates is right-skewed. Contrary to expectation based on a fractal or pseudofractal environmental structure, the decline in the richness of species at the smallest body sizes is a real effect and not a consequence of unrecorded species or of species introductions to the island. The scarcity of small species might well be a consequence of their large geographic ranges.

Physiological variation in insects: hierarchical levels and implications.

Variation, and in particular regular pattern in that variation, forms the foundation for evolutionary physiology. Nonetheless, with the exception of seemingly good fits between the tolerances of animals and the environments they live in, this variation is often not well explored. Here, three examples of different forms of such variation (both large- and small-scale) in a range of physiological traits in insects are explored. In the first example, I show that at global, regional, and local scales, variation in insect upper lethal temperatures is far less variable than variation in lower lethal temperatures, and that upper and lower tolerances are partially decoupled. Second, I demonstrate that variation in upper and lower lethal limits, desiccation resistance and tolerance, and respiration rate are often partitioned at taxonomic levels above that of the species. In other words, there is considerable phylogenetic constraint in the evolution of the responses of insects to the environment. These findings suggest that several ideas regarding insect physiological adaptations might have to be re-examined. They also suggest that approaches using both "raw" and corrected data should be adopted where possible. Finally, I demonstrate that there is considerable intra-individual variation in the characteristics of insect discontinuous gas exchange cycles. This is perhaps well-known to researchers in the field, but the implications thereof for arguments in favour of the adaptive nature of these regular cycles have not been carefully examined. Together, these findings suggest that there is still much to be learned about variation in insect physiological traits.

Feeding patterns of immature stages of Hyalomma truncatum and Hyalomma marginatum rufipes on different hosts.

In this study we examine the feeding patterns of immature stages of Hyalomma truncatum and Hyalomma marginatum rufipes ticks on different hosts. Larvae of H. truncatum developed through a three-host pattern on two species of field mice, Rhabdomys pumilio and Lemniscomys rosalia. On guinea-pigs, both Hyalomma species followed a mixed two-host and three-host pattern, with the latter route being preferred, since more than 70% of the fully fed larvae dropped off from their hosts. H. truncatum was a two-host tick on rabbits. Larvae of H. marginatum rufipes did not prefer R. pumilio and L. rosalia as hosts. On guinea-pigs, H. marginatum rufipes immatures showed a mixed two-host and three-host pattern with a bias towards the three-host life cycle, since approximately 58% of the fully fed larvae dropped off. On rabbits, H. marginatum rufipes was exclusively a two-host tick. Mean engorgement weights and blood quantities ingested by H. truncatum nymphs that developed through a three-host pattern on mice were significantly higher (p < 0.0001) than for those that developed through a two-host pattern on guinea-pigs and rabbits. For H. marginatum rufipes, there were no significant differences (p > 0.05) between engorgement weights of nymphs that developed through two-host and three-host patterns. However, there were significant differences (p < 0.0001) in blood quantities ingested by nymphs of this tick species following feeding on different hosts.