A Phase 2 Trial of Response-Based Radiation Therapy for Localized Central Nervous System Germ Cell Tumors: Patterns of Failure and Radiation Dosimetry for Nongerminomatous Germ Cell Tumors.

PURPOSE: Children's Oncology Group study ACNS1123 tested the efficacy of reduced dose and field of radiation therapy (RT) for patients with localized nongerminomatous germ cell tumors (NGGCT) who achieved a complete (CR) or partial response (PR) to chemotherapy. Here, we evaluate the quality of RT and patterns of failure for patients eligible for reduced RT in this phase 2 trial. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Patients with localized NGGCT with CR/PR after induction chemotherapy received reduced RT to 30.6 Gy whole ventricular irradiation and 54 Gy tumor-bed total dose. An atlas was provided to assist with complex RT volumes. Early interventional review was performed for the initial RT plan. Complete RT plans for all patients and images of relapsed patients were centrally reviewed at completion of therapy. RESULTS: Between May 2012 and September 2016, 107 eligible patients were enrolled and 66 achieved a CR/PR after induction chemotherapy (± second-look surgery) and were eligible for reduced RT. Median follow-up was 4.4 years. Median age was 11.0 years (3.7-21.6), and 75% were male. Progression-free survival and overall survival at 4 years were 87.9% ± 4.0% and 92.4% ± 3.3% for 66 evaluable patients, respectively. Eight patients relapsed: 6 with isolated spinal relapse and 2 with disease in the brain and spine. After central review, 62 (94%) patients had RT targets contoured and dose delivered per protocol. None of the patients with deviations (n = 4) have progressed. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of failure suggest the spine is at risk for recurrence for patients with localized NGGCT who receive reduced RT after a CR/PR to induction chemotherapy. Although survival data are encouraging, the pattern of failure has influenced the next prospective trial design. RT compliance was excellent despite complexity of radiation volumes, suggesting that providing visual guidance in the form of an online atlas contributes to higher quality RT plans.

Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of SARS-CoV-2 in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of 2020 excess mortality data

IntroductionIn countries with weak surveillance systems confirmed COVID-19 deaths are likely to underestimate the death toll of the pandemic. Many countries also have incomplete vital registration systems, hampering excess mortality estimation. Here, we fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery data on burial patterns in Mogadishu, Somalia during 2020 to estimate the date of introduction, transmissibility and other epidemiologic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 in this low-income, crisis-affected setting. MethodsWe performed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting with an age-structured compartmental COVID-19 model to provide median estimates and credible intervals for the date of introduction, the basic reproduction number (R0) and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in Mogadishu up to September 2020. ResultsUnder the assumption that excess deaths in Mogadishu February-September 2020 were directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection we arrived at median estimates of October-November 2019 for the date of introduction and low R0 estimates (1.3-1.5) stemming from the early and slow rise of excess deaths. The effect of control measures on transmissibility appeared small. ConclusionSubject to study assumptions, a very early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia. Estimated transmissibility in the first epidemic wave was lower than observed in European settings.

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia

BackgroundWhile the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been well documented in high-income countries, much less is known about its impact in Somalia where health systems are weak and vital registration is under developed. MethodsWe used remote sensing and geospatial analysis to quantify the number of burials from January 2017 to September 2020 in Mogadishu. We imputed missing grave counts using surface area data. Simple interpolation and a generalised additive mixed growth model were used to predict both actual and counterfactual burial rates by cemetery and across Mogadishu during the most likely period of COVID-19 excess mortality and to compute excess burials. We also undertook a qualitative survey of key informants to determine the drivers of COVID-19 excess mortality. ResultsBurial rates increased during the pandemic period with a ratio to pre-pandemic levels averaging 1.5-fold and peaking at 2.2-fold. When scaled to plausible range of baseline Crude Death Rates (CDR), excess death toll between January and September 2020 ranged between 3,200 and 11,800. When compared to burial records of the Barakaat Cemetery Committee our estimates were found to be lower. ConclusionsOur study points to considerable under estimation of COVID-19 impact in Banadir and an overburdened public health system struggling to deal with the increasing severity of the epidemic in 2020.

Self-sampling of capillary blood for serological testing of SARS-CoV-2 by COVID-19 IgG ELISA

Serological testing is emerging as a powerful tool to progress our understanding of COVID-19 exposure, transmission and immune response. Large-scale testing is limited by the need for in-person blood collection by staff trained in venepuncture. Capillary blood self-sampling and postage to laboratories for analysis could provide a reliable alternative. Two-hundred and nine matched venous and capillary blood samples were obtained from thirty nine participants and analysed using a COVID-19 IgG ELISA to detect antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Thirty seven out of thirty eight participants were able to self-collect an adequate sample of capillary blood ([≥]50 l). Using plasma from venous blood collected in lithium heparin as the reference standard, matched capillary blood samples, collected in lithium heparin-treated tubes and on filter paper as dried blood spots, achieved a Cohen's kappa coefficient of >0.88 (near-perfect agreement). Storage of capillary blood at room temperature for up to 7 days post sampling did not affect concordance. Our results indicate that capillary blood self-sampling is a reliable and feasible alternative to venepuncture for serological assessment in COVID-19.

Dynamics of IgG seroconversion and pathophysiology of COVID-19 infections

We report dynamics of seroconversion to SARS-CoV-2 infections detected by IgG ELISA in 177 individuals diagnosed by RT-PCR. Longitudinal analysis identifies 2-8.5% of individuals who do not seroconvert even weeks after infection. They are younger than seroconverters who have increased co-morbidity and higher inflammatory markers such as C-Reactive Protein. Higher antibody responses are associated with non-white ethnicity. Antibody responses do not decline during follow up almost to 2 months. Serological assays increase understanding of disease severity. Their application in regular surveillance will clarify the duration and protective nature of humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2.

Rapid development of COVID-19 rapid diagnostics for low resource settings: accelerating delivery through transparency, responsiveness, and open collaboration

Here we describe an open and transparent consortium for the rapid development of COVID-19 rapid diagnostics tests. We report diagnostic accuracy data on the Mologic manufactured IgG COVID-19 ELISA on known positive serum samples and on a panel of known negative respiratory and viral serum samples pre-December 2019. In January, Mologic, embarked on a product development pathway for COVID-19 diagnostics focusing on ELISA and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), with anticipated funding from Wellcome Trust and DFID. 834 clinical samples from known COVID-19 patients and hospital negative controls were tested on Mologics IgG ELISA. The reported sensitivity on 270 clinical samples from 124 prospectively enrolled patients was 94% (95% CI: 89.60% - 96.81%) on day 10 or more post laboratory diagnosis, and 96% (95% CI: 84.85% - 99.46%) between 14-21 days post symptom onset. A specificity panel comprising 564 samples collected pre-December 2019 were tested to include most common respiratory pathogens, other types of coronavirus, and flaviviruses. Specificity in this panel was 97% (95% CI: 95.65% - 98.50%). This is the first in a series of Mologic products for COVID-19, which will be deployed for COVID-19 diagnosis, contact tracing and sero-epidemiological studies to estimate disease burden and transmission with a focus on ensuring access, affordability, and availability to low-resource settings.