Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake.

Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (Mw = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to ~70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.

Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake.

It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake's slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended.

PCBs and HCHs in a salt-marsh sediment record from South-Central Chile: use of tsunami signatures and 137Cs fallout as temporal markers.

This paper documents the occurrence of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) and hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) deposition inferred from a sedimentary record exposed in a salt-marsh trench in South-Central Chile. Sediments were carefully collected every 1 cm from the trench wall. The samples were analyzed for PCBs, HCHs, 137Cs, organic carbon and grain size. The 137Cs fallout and the sedimentary signature left by the 1960 Chilean tsunami were used as temporal markers to estimate the stratigraphic chronology and the sedimentation rates. PCBs were quantified by gas chromatography with electron capture detection (GC-ECD), and positive samples were confirmed by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry detection (GC-MS). Based on these results, PCBs and HCHs deposition over the last 40 years was estimated. No PCBs were detected below the tsunami signature. Total concentrations ranged from undetectable (ND) to 32 ng/g d.w. for PCBs and from undetectable (ND) to 1.29 ng/g d.w. for HCHs. The highest PCB concentrations were found in the upper 7 cm of the core. Even though PCBs were banned in 1982 as electrical fluids in Chile, total estimated PCB fluxes have increased approximately 20 times during the last 40 years: from undetectable values to 102.6 ng/cm2/year, reflecting that PCBs are still in use and being released into the environment.