How to deal with ground truthing affected by human-induced habitat change?: Identifying high-quality habitats for the Critically Endangered Red Siskin.

Species distribution models (SDM) can be valuable for identifying key habitats for conservation management of threatened taxa, but anthropogenic habitat change can undermine SDM accuracy. We used data for the Red Siskin (Spinus cucullatus), a critically endangered bird and ground truthing to examine anthropogenic habitat change as a source of SDM inaccuracy. We aimed to estimate: (1) the Red Siskin's historic distribution in Venezuela; (2) the portion of this historic distribution lost to vegetation degradation; and (3) the location of key habitats or areas with both, a high probability of historic occurrence and a low probability of vegetation degradation. We ground-truthed 191 locations and used expert opinion as well as landscape characteristics to classify species' habitat suitability as excellent, good, acceptable, or poor. We fit a Random Forest model (RF) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) time series to evaluate the accuracy and precision of the expert categorization of habitat suitability. We estimated the probability of historic occurrence by fitting a MaxLike model using 88 presence records (1960-2013) and data on forest cover and aridity index. Of the entire study area, 23% (20,696 km2) had a historic probability of Red Siskin occurrence over 0.743. Furthermore, 85% of ground-truthed locations had substantial reductions in mean EVI, resulting in key habitats totaling just 976 km2, in small blocks in the western and central regions. Decline in Area of Occupancy over 15 years was between 40% and 95%, corresponding to an extinction risk category between Vulnerable and Critically Endangered. Relating key habitats with other landscape features revealed significant risks and opportunities for proposed conservation interventions, including the fact that ongoing vegetation degradation could limit the establishment of reintroduced populations in eastern areas, while the conservation of remaining key habitats on private lands could be improved with biodiversity-friendly agri- and silviculture programs.

Using spatial patterns in illegal wildlife uses to reveal connections between subsistence hunting and trade.

Although most often considered independently, subsistence hunting, domestic trade, and international trade as components of illegal wildlife use (IWU) may be spatially correlated. Understanding how and where subsistence and commercial uses may co-occur has important implications for the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. We analyzed patterns in the joint geographical distribution of illegal commercial and subsistence use of multiple wildlife species in Venezuela and evaluated whether available data were sufficient to provide accurate estimates of the magnitude, scope, and detectability of IWU. We compiled records of illegal subsistence hunting and trade from several sources and fitted a random-forest classification model to predict the spatial distribution of IWUs. From 1969 to 2014, 404 species and 8,340,921 specimens were involved in IWU, for a mean extraction rate of 185,354 individuals/year. Birds were the most speciose group involved (248 spp.), but reptiles had the highest extraction rates (126,414 individuals/year vs. 3,133 individuals/year for birds). Eighty-eight percent of international trade records spatially overlapped with domestic trade, especially in the north and along the coast but also in western inland areas. The distribution of domestic trade was broadly distributed along roads, suggesting that domestic trade does not depend on large markets in cities. Seventeen percent of domestic trade records overlapped with subsistence hunting, but the spatial distribution of this overlap covered a much larger area than between commercial uses. Domestic trade seems to respond to demand from rural more than urban communities. Our approach will be useful for understanding how IWU works at national scales in other parts of the world.

A practical guide to the application of the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria.

The newly developed IUCN Red List of Ecosystems is part of a growing toolbox for assessing risks to biodiversity, which addresses ecosystems and their functioning. The Red List of Ecosystems standard allows systematic assessment of all freshwater, marine, terrestrial and subterranean ecosystem types in terms of their global risk of collapse. In addition, the Red List of Ecosystems categories and criteria provide a technical base for assessments of ecosystem status at the regional, national, or subnational level. While the Red List of Ecosystems criteria were designed to be widely applicable by scientists and practitioners, guidelines are needed to ensure they are implemented in a standardized manner to reduce epistemic uncertainties and allow robust comparisons among ecosystems and over time. We review the intended application of the Red List of Ecosystems assessment process, summarize 'best-practice' methods for ecosystem assessments and outline approaches to ensure operational rigour of assessments. The Red List of Ecosystems will inform priority setting for ecosystem types worldwide, and strengthen capacity to report on progress towards the Aichi Targets of the Convention on Biological Diversity. When integrated with other IUCN knowledge products, such as the World Database of Protected Areas/Protected Planet, Key Biodiversity Areas and the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the Red List of Ecosystems will contribute to providing the most complete global measure of the status of biodiversity yet achieved.

Scientific foundations for an IUCN Red List of ecosystems.

An understanding of risks to biodiversity is needed for planning action to slow current rates of decline and secure ecosystem services for future human use. Although the IUCN Red List criteria provide an effective assessment protocol for species, a standard global assessment of risks to higher levels of biodiversity is currently limited. In 2008, IUCN initiated development of risk assessment criteria to support a global Red List of ecosystems. We present a new conceptual model for ecosystem risk assessment founded on a synthesis of relevant ecological theories. To support the model, we review key elements of ecosystem definition and introduce the concept of ecosystem collapse, an analogue of species extinction. The model identifies four distributional and functional symptoms of ecosystem risk as a basis for assessment criteria: A) rates of decline in ecosystem distribution; B) restricted distributions with continuing declines or threats; C) rates of environmental (abiotic) degradation; and D) rates of disruption to biotic processes. A fifth criterion, E) quantitative estimates of the risk of ecosystem collapse, enables integrated assessment of multiple processes and provides a conceptual anchor for the other criteria. We present the theoretical rationale for the construction and interpretation of each criterion. The assessment protocol and threat categories mirror those of the IUCN Red List of species. A trial of the protocol on terrestrial, subterranean, freshwater and marine ecosystems from around the world shows that its concepts are workable and its outcomes are robust, that required data are available, and that results are consistent with assessments carried out by local experts and authorities. The new protocol provides a consistent, practical and theoretically grounded framework for establishing a systematic Red List of the world's ecosystems. This will complement the Red List of species and strengthen global capacity to report on and monitor the status of biodiversity.

Establishing IUCN Red List criteria for threatened ecosystems.

The potential for conservation of individual species has been greatly advanced by the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) development of objective, repeatable, and transparent criteria for assessing extinction risk that explicitly separate risk assessment from priority setting. At the IV World Conservation Congress in 2008, the process began to develop and implement comparable global standards for ecosystems. A working group established by the IUCN has begun formulating a system of quantitative categories and criteria, analogous to those used for species, for assigning levels of threat to ecosystems at local, regional, and global levels. A final system will require definitions of ecosystems; quantification of ecosystem status; identification of the stages of degradation and loss of ecosystems; proxy measures of risk (criteria); classification thresholds for these criteria; and standardized methods for performing assessments. The system will need to reflect the degree and rate of change in an ecosystem's extent, composition, structure, and function, and have its conceptual roots in ecological theory and empirical research. On the basis of these requirements and the hypothesis that ecosystem risk is a function of the risk of its component species, we propose a set of four criteria: recent declines in distribution or ecological function, historical total loss in distribution or ecological function, small distribution combined with decline, or very small distribution. Most work has focused on terrestrial ecosystems, but comparable thresholds and criteria for freshwater and marine ecosystems are also needed. These are the first steps in an international consultation process that will lead to a unified proposal to be presented at the next World Conservation Congress in 2012.

Relationships among body mass index, parental perceptions, birthweight and parental weight after referral to a weight clinic.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether, in a specialty referral clinic, parental perceptions of their child's obesity were commensurate with the child's body mass index z score. Secondarily, we examined the impact of birth weight and parental body mass index on their child's body mass index z score and review results of an intake questionnaire. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study SETTING: University of Michigan from March 21, 2003 through June 30, 2004 PARTICIPANTS: Eighty-two children ages 1-20.2 years of age INTERVENTION: Body mass index z score for all participants was calculated. An intake questionnaire was completed by caregivers in which they were asked to describe their child as little overweight, overweight, very overweight or obese. OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean body mass index z score was compared to each parental descriptor. Regression analysis related body mass index z score to birthweight and parental body mass index. RESULTS: Body mass index z score was not related to parental descriptors. Maternal body mass index and child birthweight were predictors of the child's body mass index z score (r2=0.15, p<0.05; and r2=0.11, p<0.05, respectively). Both together produced a better model than either alone (r2=0.23, p<0.05). There was no relationship between paternal and child body mass index z score (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: There is a divergence between the parental perception of childhood obesity and the clinical definition that persists even in the context of an explicit referral. Given the significant impact of maternal weight on childhood overweight, education for prevention of overweight youth should encompass prenatal, early childhood and adolescent health maintenance.

Electromyographic comparison of the upper and lower rectus abdominis during abdominal exercises.

The objective of this pilot study was to determine the effect of 6 different abdominal exercises on the electrical activity of the upper rectus abdominis (URA) and lower rectus abdominis (LRA). Eight healthy, adult volunteers completed 6 random abdominal exercises: curl up, Sissel ball curl up, Ab Trainer curl up, leg lowering, Sissel ball roll out, and reverse curl up. Action potentials were recorded and analyzed from the URA and the LRA using surface electromyography (EMG) during a 2-second concentric contraction. The average normalized data were compared between the URA and the LRA in order to determine the behavior of the different muscle sites and between exercises in order to determine which exercises elicited the highest EMG activity. There were no significant differences (p > 0.05) between the EMG activity of the URA and LRA during any exercise. There were no significant interactions between subject and muscle site or between exercise and muscle site. Significant differences were found among the 6 exercises performed, and due to the interaction between subject and exercise performed. Both the URA and the LRA recorded significantly higher mean amplitudes during the Sissel ball curl up than during all other exercises. In addition, the curl up, Sissel ball curl up, and Ab Trainer curl up had significantly higher normalized EMG activity in both muscle sites than the reverse curl up, the leg lowering exercise, and the Sissel ball roll out. The curl up and the Ab Trainer curl up exercises were not significantly different in terms of their normalized EMG activities for both the URA and the LRA.