Are groundwater nitrate concentrations reaching a turning point in some chalk aquifers?

In past decades, there has been much scientific effort dedicated to the development of models for simulation and prediction of nitrate concentrations in groundwaters, but producing truly predictive models remains a major challenge. A time-series model, based on long-term variations in nitrate fertiliser applications and average rainfall, was calibrated against measured concentrations from five boreholes in the River Frome catchment of Southern England for the period spanning from the mid-1970s to 2003. The model was then used to "blind" predict nitrate concentrations for the period 2003-2008. To our knowledge, this represents the first "blind" test of a model for predicting nitrate concentrations in aquifers. It was found that relatively simple time-series models could explain and predict a significant proportion of the variation in nitrate concentrations in these groundwater abstraction points (R(2)=0.6-0.9 and mean absolute prediction errors 4.2-8.0%). The study highlighted some important limitations and uncertainties in this, and other modelling approaches, in particular regarding long-term nitrate fertiliser application data. In three of the five groundwater abstraction points (Hooke, Empool and Eagle Lodge), once seasonal variations were accounted for, there was a recent change in the generally upward historical trend in nitrate concentrations. This may be an early indication of a response to levelling-off (and declining) fertiliser application rates since the 1980s. There was no clear indication of trend change at the Forston and Winterbourne Abbas sites nor in the trend of nitrate concentration in the River Frome itself from 1965 to 2008.

Successful conservation of a threatened Maculinea butterfly.

Globally threatened butterflies have prompted research-based approaches to insect conservation. Here, we describe the reversal of the decline of Maculinea arion (Large Blue), a charismatic specialist whose larvae parasitize Myrmica ant societies. M. arion larvae were more specialized than had previously been recognized, being adapted to a single host-ant species that inhabits a narrow niche in grassland. Inconspicuous changes in grazing and vegetation structure caused host ants to be replaced by similar but unsuitable congeners, explaining the extinction of European Maculinea populations. Once this problem was identified, UK ecosystems were perturbed appropriately, validating models predicting the recovery and subsequent dynamics of the butterfly and ants at 78 sites. The successful identification and reversal of the problem provides a paradigm for other insect conservation projects.

Comparative losses of British butterflies, birds, and plants and the global extinction crisis.

There is growing concern about increased population, regional, and global extinctions of species. A key question is whether extinction rates for one group of organisms are representative of other taxa. We present a comparison at the national scale of population and regional extinctions of birds, butterflies, and vascular plants from Britain in recent decades. Butterflies experienced the greatest net losses, disappearing on average from 13% of their previously occupied 10-kilometer squares. If insects elsewhere in the world are similarly sensitive, the known global extinction rates of vertebrate and plant species have an unrecorded parallel among the invertebrates, strengthening the hypothesis that the natural world is experiencing the sixth major extinction event in its history.

Estimating the extent and change in Broad Habitats in Great Britain.

A stratified random sample of kilometre squares in Great Britain was visited and completely mapped using four areal themes (agriculture and semi-natural vegetation, forestry, physiography and buildings and communications). The maps were digitised and the attribute information recorded to produce an electronic database. Information was summarised by square and then bootstrap re-sampling techniques were used to produce national estimates with statistical confidence intervals. The results for 1998 showed the terrestrial Broad Habitats had a range in extent covering two orders of magnitude from Montane (49000ha) to Improved Grassland (5482000ha). Just under half of Britain is covered by agricultural Broad Habitats, about 12% by woodland and just under 10% by Urban Habitats. The remaining quarter of the land area is covered by semi-natural Broad Habitats. By revisiting the same sample of squares previously visited in 1990, changes in the quantity and quality of the Broad Habitats have been determined. Significant increases in area have occurred in the Broadleaved, Mixed and Yew Woodland and Built Up and Gardens. The largest areal reduction was in Acid Grassland although that was in part balanced by a gain in Fen, Marsh and Swamp. The most significant ecological loss was in the area of Calcareous Grassland. The consequences of having different sample sizes for the different years are discussed.

National-scale vegetation change across Britain; an analysis of sample-based surveillance data from the Countryside Surveys of 1990 and 1998.

Patterns of vegetation across Great Britain (GB) between 1990 and 1998 were quantified based on an analysis of plant species data from a total of 9596 fixed plots. Plots were established on a stratified random basis within 501 1 km sample squares located as part of the Countryside Survey of GB. Results are primarily conveyed in terms of a classification of national land-cover into 22 mutually exclusive Broad Habitat types. Each of the fixed vegetation plots could be assigned to the Broad Habitat in which they were located in either year. Two types of analysis are reported, both based on changes in plant species composition within monitoring plots. The first examined turnover and net change between Broad Habitat types. The second quantified more subtle changes that had occurred within each Broad Habitat using a series of condition measures that summarized multivariate plant species data as a single scalar value for each plot at each time. There are major difficulties in using uncontrolled, large-scale surveillance data to unravel causal linkages and no attempt was made to quantitatively partition variation among competing causes. However, it was clear that results were broadly consistent with environmental drivers known to have operated prior to and during the survey interval. Large-scale vegetation changes could be summarized in terms of shifts along gradients of substrate fertility and disturbance. Changes implied increased nutrient availability across upland and lowland ecosystems while, in lowland landscapes, linear features and small biotope fragments saw a marked shift to species compositions associated with greater shade and less disturbance.

A comparison of the macrophyte cover and macroinvertebrate fauna at three sites on the River Kennet in the mid 1970s and late 1990s.

In 1974-1976, baseline studies were carried out on the flora and macroinvertebrate fauna of the R. Kennet at two sites downstream of Marlborough (Savernake Upper and Lower) and at one site upstream of Hungerford (Littlecote). Simplified maps of each site, showing the cover of macrophytes, were obtained monthly between April 1974 and April/June 1976, and replicated quantitative samples of the macroinvertebrates were collected on the dominant macrophyte and on gravel in June 1974, and also in June and December 1975. As a consequence of two major droughts and increasing concern over water quality in the Upper Kennet in the 1990s, the studies recommenced in the summer of 1997 using the same sites and methodologies. Maps and macroinvertebrate samples were obtained in early July and December 1997 and in June of both 1998 and 1999. At the Savernake sites, mapping in summer 1997 confirmed what had been apparent for some years. That is, macrophyte cover (both Ranunculus and Schoenoplectus) was much lower than in the 1970s. In contrast, the site downstream at Littlecote retained a relatively high cover of Ranunculus, despite the drought. In late autumn 1997, phosphate stripping commenced at Marlborough Sewage Treatment Works, the drought ended and in addition, the spring of 1998 was unusually wet. Ranunculus recolonised both Savernake sites with remarkable speed by summer 1998 and retained this dominant position in 1999. Quantitative samples of macroinvertebrates collected on gravel and the dominant macrophyte at each of the three study sites indicated that there was no evidence of major loss of family richness between the 1970s and 1990s as a result of the low flows or enrichment. However, at Savernake (but not Littlecote) in summer 1997, the macroinvertebrate assemblage was affected by low flows and/or enrichment. This took the form of changes in the abundance of some families, with lentic forms being favoured in relation to some lotic families. Following the end of the drought, many macroinvertebrate families at Savernake showed a rapid response to the new conditions and the assemblages reverted to those expected in a fast-flowing cretaceous chalk stream. Continued monitoring through the next drought is advisable to provide a greater understanding of the interplay between water quality, the discharge regime, habitat quality (including macrophyte growth) and the response of the macroinvertebrate fauna.

The quality and isolation of habitat patches both determine where butterflies persist in fragmented landscapes.

Habitat quality and metapopulation effects are the main hypotheses that currently explain the disproportionate decline of insects in cultivated Holarctic landscapes. The former assumes a degradation in habitat quality for insects within surviving ecosystems, the latter that too few, small or isolated islands of ecosystem remain in landscapes for populations to persist. These hypotheses are often treated as alternatives, and this can lead to serious conflict in the interpretations of conservationists. We present the first empirical demonstration that habitat quality and site isolation are both important determinants of where populations persist in modern landscapes. We described the precise habitat requirements of Melitaea cinxia, Polyommatus bellargus and Thymelicus acteon, and quantified the variation in carrying capacity within each butterfly's niche. We then made detailed surveys to compare the distribution and density of every population of each species with the size, distance apart and quality of their specific habitats in all their potential habitat patches in three UK landscapes. In each case, within-site variation in habitat quality explained which patches supported a species' population two to three times better than site isolation. Site area and occupancy were not correlated in any species. Instead of representing alternative paradigms, habitat quality and spatial effects operate at different hierarchical levels within the same process: habitat quality is the missing third parameter in metapopulation dynamics, contributing more to species persistence, on the basis of these results, than site area or isolation. A reorientation in conservation priorities is recommended.

Long distance seed dispersal by wind: measuring and modelling the tail of the curve.

The size and shape of the tail of the seed dispersal curve is important in determining the spatial dynamics of plants, but is difficult to quantify. We devised an experimental protocol to measure long-distance dispersal which involved measuring dispersal by wind from isolated individuals at a range of distances from the source, but maintaining a large and constant sampling intensity at each distance. Seeds were trapped up to 80 m from the plants, the furthest a dispersal curve for an individual plant has been measured for a non-tree species. Standard empirical negative exponential and inverse power models were fitted using likelihood methods. The latter always had a better fit than the former, but in most cases neither described the data well, and strongly under-estimated the tail of the dispersal curve. An alternative model formulation with two kernel components had a much better fit in most cases and described the tail data more accurately. Mechanistic models provide an alternative to direct measurement of dispersal. However, while a previous mechanistic model accurately predicted the modal dispersal distance, it always under-predicted the measured tail. Long-distance dispersal may be caused by rare extremes in horizontal wind speed or turbulence. Therefore, under-estimation of the tail by standard empirical models and mechanistic models may indicate a lack of flexibility to take account of such extremes. Future studies should examine carefully whether the widely used exponential and power models are, in fact, valid, and investigate alternative models.

Impacts of climate and density on the duration of the tadpole stage of the common toad Bufo bufo.

In an ongoing long-term study of a breeding population of common toads Bufo bufo at a pond in southern England, the dates of first spawning have been recorded since 1980, the dates of toadlet emergence since 1984, and the numbers of emergent toadlets estimated since 1988. The dates when spawn was first laid varied considerably between years from the earliest on 2 February 1993 (day 33) to the latest on 19 March 1996 (day 79). The duration of the tadpole stage was negatively correlated with the date of appearance of first spawn and was up to 30 days longer in early spawning years than in late ones. Despite this, toadlets still emerged from the natal pond up to 36 days earlier in early spawning years than in late ones. Significant positive correlations were found between the duration of the tadpole stage and both the proportion of days during the tadpole stage when the minimum ground temperature was at or below 0°C and the proportion of days when 10 mm or more rain fell. Tadpole mortality was positively correlated with the proportion of days during the tadpole stage when the minimum ground temperature was at or below 1.5°C. Evidence was also found to suggest that tadpole mortality was density-dependent, being proportionately higher when initial tadpole numbers were high than when they were low.

The effects of density, rainfall and environmental temperature on body condition and fecundity in the common toad, Bufo bufo.

The body length and body weight of all adult common toads (Bufo bufo) breeding at a pond in south Dorset were measured between 1983 and 1993. Each toad was placed into one of four categories depending on its sex and whether it was either a first time breeder or an animal that had previously bred. The body condition of each male and female toad for each year was compared with the average body condition of all the male and female toads captured over the 11 years of the study so that between-year differences in condition could be detected. Changes in body condition were compared with changes in body condition were compared with changes in toad density, rainfall and climatic temperature during the previous summer (March-September), during hibernation (October-February) and during the month preceding the start of spawning. During the study there was a decline in the body condition of all toad categories and these changes were significantly correlated with changes in toad density and climatic temperature. Toads were also more likely to enter hibernation in poor condition following a hot dry summer than after either cool wet or hot wet summers. Body condition explained 41% of the size-specific variation in fecundity.

The role of individualized care in a service delivery system for children and adolescents with severely maladjusted behavior.

Individualized care is a total system of care that is tailored to a child with severely maladjusted behavior. The services are unconditional, flexible, child and family focused, and interagency coordinated. The services follow the child until the child is adjusting in a normalized, mainstream environment. Individualized care is illustrated through two different projects. One is the Alaska Youth Initiative where individualized care was used to return children from out-of-state, residential programs. The other is Project Wraparound where it was used to prevent children from being removed from their families. This paper begins with the principles of individualized care and then describes the ecological, multilevel assessment process that coincides with the delivery of services. A case example from Project Wraparound is provided for clarification. Following the case example is a discussion of the need for evaluation data with some suggested strategies for documenting effectiveness. The final section focuses on two barriers to the implementation of individualized care. One is the tendency to think in terms of component programs rather than individualized services. The other barrier is the competition for scarce resources. Strategies are presented for overcoming both barriers.

What mentally retarded and nonretarded children expect of one another.

Twenty mentally retarded students and nonretarded students matched for chronological age (n = 20) or mental age (n = 16) made judgments about children described as having or not having learning problems. Results showed that students had both positive and negative stereotyped expectations about these children and that there were few differences between the expectations of retarded and nonretarded students. Students' responses to stereotype questions 11 to 18 months later revealed few changes in their stereotypes and no significant differences between stability of retarded and nonretarded students' stereotypes. Results suggest that understanding social relations between retarded and nonretarded children requires consideration of the expectations of both groups.

Variation in Numbers and Mass of Ciliate Protozoa in the Rumens of Sheep Fed Chaffed Alfalfa (Medicago sativa).

Masses and numbers of rumen ciliate protozoa were markedly different in individual sheep fed chaffed alfalfa hay under different feeding regimens. Studies on the ciliate contribution to specific aspects of rumen fermentation should take into account the size of members of each genus in individual animals as well as the numbers present.

Influences of dietary sucrose and urea on transfer of endogenous urea to the rumen of sheep and numbers of epithelial bacteria.

1. The rates of transfer of plasma urea to the rumen of six sheep given brome grass (Bromus inermis) pellets alone or with supplements of sucrose or urea were determined using [14C] urea and 14C-labelled sodium bicarbonate infusions during three periods. 2. The sheep were slaughtered after the third period and samples of rumen epithelium were taken for assessment of numbers of adherent bacteria. 3. Maximum transfer (0.31 g nitrogen/h) of urea ot the rumen was observed for sheep given supplements of 150 g sucrose/d plus 20 g urea/d. Maximum clearance of plasma urea to the rumen (rate of urea transfer to the rumen per unit plasma urea concentration, 5.8 1/h) was observed for sheep given 300 g sucrose/d. 4. Urea clearance to the rumen was negatively related to rumen ammonia concentration; the slope of the relationship was increased with each addition of sucrose to the diet. 5. Numbers of facultative bacteria adherent to the rumen epithelium were increased by urea and sucrose supplements. 6. The results are discussed in relation to a hypothesis which relates the ureolytic capability of the bacteria adherent to the rumen epithelium to the control of the rate of transfer of urea into the rumen.

Niche in Pasture-Fed Ruminants for the Large Rumen Bacteria Oscillospira, Lampropedia, and Quin's and Eadie's Ovals.

The little-studied large bacteria Oscillospira, Lampropedia, and ovals attach rapidly in large numbers to the cuticular surface of clover and grass leaves in the rumen. The cuticle of green leaves may constitute a specific niche for these bacteria.

Physician contracts: new issues hit the bargaining table.

The number of contract physicians in hospitals has been growing, reflecting a dependence on hospitals for new and costly technology. When a physician negotiates his contract, it is important for him to understand the hospital's bargaining strengths and to be aware of his own. This article discusses the basic considerations involved in contractual agreements and the impact of public demands for accountability, health planning agencies, cost containment, and multihospital systems.

Attachment of the ciliate Epidinium Crawley to plant fragments in the sheep rumen.

High concentrations of the ciliate Epidinium Crawley are associated with damaged regions of fresh plant material undergoing digestion in the sheep rumen. This finding supports that postulate that sequestration in the rumen explains the low rate of passage of protozoa despite the high flow rate of liquid from the rumen. The maintenance of Epidinium in the rumen, despite their slow growth rate, is also explained.

Scanning electron microscope study of bacteria associated with the rumen epithelium of sheep.

Examination of the rumen epithelium of sheep by scanning electron microscopy revealed bacteria associated with the epithelial surface. Comparison of epithelial surfaces from 10 sheep revealed areas that were consistently densely covered with bacteria and other areas where the cover was consistently light. The bacterial populations were frequently of mixed morphological types, but areas populated with a single type were also observed. This finding, together with the discovery of bacterial forms not previously described in rumen contents, suggests that a specific flora may exist on the rumen epithelial surface. The functional significance of such a population is discussed.