Inter-epidemic Rift Valley fever virus infection incidence and risks for zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania.

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that has caused epidemics involving people and animals across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. A number of studies have found evidence for the circulation of RVFV among livestock between these epidemics but the population-level incidence of infection during this inter-epidemic period (IEP) is rarely reported. General force of infection (FOI) models were applied to age-adjusted cross-sectional serological data to reconstruct the annual FOI and population-level incidence of RVFV infection among cattle, goats, and sheep in northern Tanzania from 2009 through 2015, a period without reported Rift Valley fever (RVF) cases in people or animals. To evaluate the potential for zoonotic RVFV spillover during this period, the relationship between village-level livestock RVFV FOI and human RVFV seropositivity was quantified using multi-level logistic regression. The predicted average annual incidence was 72 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 63, 81) RVFV infections per 10,000 animals and 96 (95% CrI 81, 113), 79 (95% CrI 62, 98), and 39 (95% CrI 28, 52) per 10,000 cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. There was variation in transmission intensity between study villages, with the highest estimated village-level FOI 2.49% (95% CrI 1.89, 3.23) and the lowest 0.12% (95% CrI 0.02, 0.43). The human RVFV seroprevalence was 8.2% (95% Confidence Interval 6.2, 10.9). Human seropositivity was strongly associated with the village-level FOI in livestock, with the odds of seropositivity in an individual person increasing by around 1.2 times (95% CrI 1.1, 1.3) for each additional annual RVFV seroconversion per 1,000 animals. A history of raw milk consumption was also positively associated with human seropositivity. RVFV has circulated at apparently low levels among livestock in northern Tanzania in the period since the last reported epidemic. Although our data do not allow us to confirm human RVFV infections during the IEP, a strong association between human seropositivity and the FOI in cattle, goats, and sheep supports the hypothesis that RVFV circulation among livestock during the IEP poses a risk for undetected zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania. We provide further evidence for the likely role of raw milk consumption in RVFV transmission from animals to people.

An outbreak of Rift Valley fever among peri-urban dairy cattle in northern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Human and animal cases of Rift Valley fever (RVF) are typically only reported during large outbreaks. The occurrence of RVF cases that go undetected by national surveillance systems in the period between these outbreaks is considered likely. The last reported cases of RVF in Tanzania occurred during a large outbreak in 2007-2008. METHODS: Samples collected between 2017 and 2019 from livestock suffering abortion across northern Tanzania were retrospectively tested for evidence of RVF virus infection using serology and reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). RESULTS: A total of 14 RVF-associated cattle abortions were identified among dairy cattle in a peri-urban area surrounding the town of Moshi. RVF cases occurred from May to August 2018 and were considered to represent an undetected, small-scale RVF outbreak. Milk samples from 3 of 14 cases (21%) were found to be RT-qPCR positive. Genotyping revealed circulation of RVF viruses from two distinct lineages. CONCLUSIONS: RVF outbreaks can occur more often in endemic settings than would be expected on the basis of detection by national surveillance. The occurrence of RVF cases among peri-urban dairy cattle and evidence for viral shedding in milk, also highlights potentially emerging risks for RVF associated with increasing urban and peri-urban livestock populations.

Prospective cohort study reveals unexpected aetiologies of livestock abortion in northern Tanzania.

Livestock abortion is an important cause of productivity losses worldwide and many infectious causes of abortion are zoonotic pathogens that impact on human health. Little is known about the relative importance of infectious causes of livestock abortion in Africa, including in subsistence farming communities that are critically dependent on livestock for food, income, and wellbeing. We conducted a prospective cohort study of livestock abortion, supported by cross-sectional serosurveillance, to determine aetiologies of livestock abortions in livestock in Tanzania. This approach generated several important findings including detection of a Rift Valley fever virus outbreak in cattle; high prevalence of C. burnetii infection in livestock; and the first report of Neospora caninum, Toxoplasma gondii, and pestiviruses associated with livestock abortion in Tanzania. Our approach provides a model for abortion surveillance in resource-limited settings. Our findings add substantially to current knowledge in sub-Saharan Africa, providing important evidence from which to prioritise disease interventions.

Classification and characterisation of livestock production systems in northern Tanzania.

Livestock keepers in sub-Saharan Africa face a range of pressures, including climate change, land loss, restrictive policies, and population increase. Widespread adaptation in response can lead to the emergence of new, non-traditional typologies of livestock production. We sought to characterise livestock production systems in two administrative regions in northern Tanzania, an area undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change. Questionnaire and spatial data were collected from 404 livestock-keeping households in 21 villages in Arusha and Manyara Regions in 2016. Multiple factor analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to classify households into livestock production systems based on household-level characteristics. Adversity-based indicators of vulnerability, including reports of hunger, illness, and livestock, land and crop losses were compared between production systems. Three distinct clusters emerged through this process. The ethnic, environmental and livestock management characteristics of households in each cluster broadly mapped onto traditional definitions of 'pastoral', 'agro-pastoral' and 'smallholder' livestock production in the study area, suggesting that this quantitative classification system is complementary to more qualitative classification methods. Our approach allowed us to demonstrate a diversity in typologies of livestock production at small spatial scales, with almost half of study villages comprising more than one production system. We also found indicators of change within livestock production systems, most notably the adoption of crop agriculture in the majority of pastoral households. System-level heterogeneities in vulnerability were evident, with agro-pastoral households most likely to report hunger and pastoral households most likely to report illness in people and livestock, and livestock losses. We demonstrate that livestock production systems can provide context for assessing household vulnerability in northern Tanzania. Policy initiatives to improve household and community well-being should recognise the continuing diversity of traditional livestock production systems in northern Tanzania, including the diversity that can exist at small spatial scales.

The Sero-epidemiology of Neospora caninum in Cattle in Northern Tanzania.

Neospora caninum is a protozoan intracellular parasite of animals with a global distribution. Dogs act as definitive hosts, with infection in cattle leading to reproductive losses. Neosporosis can be a major source of income loss for livestock keepers, but its impacts in sub-Saharan Africa are mostly unknown. This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence and identify risk factors for N. caninum infection in cattle in northern Tanzania, and to link herd-level exposure to reproductive losses. Serum samples from 3,015 cattle were collected from 380 households in 20 villages between February and December 2016. Questionnaire data were collected from 360 of these households. Household coordinates were used to extract satellite derived environmental data from open-access sources. Sera were tested for the presence of N. caninum antibodies using an indirect ELISA. Risk factors for individual-level seropositivity were identified with logistic regression using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The relationship between herd-level seroprevalence and abortion rates was assessed using negative binomial regression. The seroprevalence of N. caninum exposure after adjustment for diagnostic test performance was 21.5% [95% Credibility Interval (CrI) 17.9-25.4]. The most important predictors of seropositivity selected by BMA were age greater than 18 months [Odds ratio (OR) = 2.17, 95% CrI 1.45-3.26], the local cattle population density (OR = 0.69, 95% CrI 0.41-1.00), household use of restricted grazing (OR = 0.72, 95% CrI 0.25-1.16), and an increasing percentage cover of shrub or forest land in the environment surrounding a household (OR = 1.37, 1.00-2.14). There was a positive relationship between herd-level N. caninum seroprevalence and the reported within-herd abortion rate (Incidence Rate Ratio = 1.03, 95% CrI 1.00-1.06). Our findings suggest N. caninum is likely to be an important cause of abortion in cattle in Tanzania. Management practices, such as restricted grazing, are likely to reduce the risk of infection and suggest contamination of communal grazing areas may be important for transmission. Evidence for a relationship between livestock seropositivity and shrub and forest habitats raises questions about a potential role for wildlife in the epidemiology of N. caninum in Tanzania.

Taenia multiceps coenurosis in Tanzania: a major and under-recognised livestock disease problem in pastoral communities.

AbstractA neurological syndrome of small ruminants, known locally as 'ormilo', has been reported among pastoralist livestock keepers in Tanzania. This study was carried out in four affected pastoral communities to determine the prevalence and associated risk factors, characterise the clinical signs and investigate the aetiology of the syndrome. Questionnaires were administered at all households (n=480) within four study villages. Overall, 94 per cent of households reported at least one case in the previous 12 months. By village, the individual-level 12-month period prevalence ranged from 11 per cent to 34 per cent, equivalent to about 10,000 small ruminants across the four villages. Thirty-eight households were randomly selected for further investigation. Proprioceptive deficits and weakness were the most commonly observed clinical signs in affected animals. Brain and spinal cord cysts consistent with Taenia multiceps infection were detected in 32 (82 per cent) of 39 affected animals selected for postmortem examination. Feeding small ruminant brains to dogs was identified as an important risk factor for the syndrome, even in households that did not own dogs. This study confirms cerebral coenurosis as a major cause of small ruminant neurological disease in northern Tanzania and highlights the urgent need for further investigation to quantify the disease burden and to identify and implement control measures.