Estimating the Number of Patients Receiving Specialized Palliative Care Globally in 2017.

CONTEXT: Palliative care is an emerging health-care service essential for every health-care system. Information on the current status of palliative care service delivery is needed to understand the gap between need for palliative care and current capacity to deliver. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the number of providers delivering palliative care worldwide and the patients they served in 2017. METHODS: Estimates were obtained from a sample of countries from each World Bank income group using typical case purposive sampling methods. Reliable data from the United States and eight additional countries were used for the high-income group. For low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), to determine an estimate of the number of patients served, 30 countries representative of palliative care service delivery in each region and income group were surveyed. RESULTS: Results from the mapping levels of palliative care development survey identified a total of approximately 25,000 palliative care service delivery teams globally. The total estimate of patients served in 2017 was approximately seven million. CONCLUSION: Significant disparities in palliative care access exist both by region and income group. The European and Pan-American regions had most while the Eastern Mediterranean, Southeast Asian, and African regions had least. Much more needs to be done to develop and deliver palliative care in LMICs where 80% of the need for palliative care exists. With about 70% of operating palliative care services in high-income countries and only 30% in LMICs, a major effort to develop palliative care in these settings is urgently needed.

Palliative Care in Public Policy: Results from a Global Survey.

Background: Public policy has been a foundational component of the World Health Organization public health model for palliative care development since 1990. There is, however, limited evidence on the existence and character of palliative care policy at the country level. Objective: To identify, report on, and map the presence of national palliative care strategies, plans, legislation, and dedicated government resources in 198 countries. Design: An online survey generated 2017 data on indicators of national policy for palliative care. Subjects: In-country experts on palliative care. Measurements: The survey included specific questions on the existence and status of national strategies or plans, recognition of palliative care in national law, and dedicated government support. Results: Fifty-five countries have a national strategy or plan for palliative care of some sort, though levels of implementation vary. Forty-seven countries have some reference to palliative care in national law, and 24 have some form of stand-alone national law on palliative care provision or recognize it as a right in the constitution. Sixty-six countries have a dedicated section within government with responsibility for palliative care. Conclusions: There is a long way to go before palliative care around the world is universally supported by public policy intentions that will support its required development.

Global development of children's palliative care: An international survey of in-nation expert perceptions in 2017.

Background: The growing interest in tracking the global development of palliative care provision is not matched by research on the development of palliative care services specifically for children. Yet it is estimated that worldwide, 21 million children annually could benefit from the provision of palliative care. We report on a global study of children's palliative care development and offer suggestions for further improvement in design and method. Methods: Primary data on the level of children's palliative care development in 2017 was collected from in-country experts through a specific question in an online questionnaire that sought to measure the overall level of palliative care provision globally. Countries were assigned to one of six categories on the basis of the responses obtained. Conflicting responses from the same country were resolved with reference to a hierarchy of preferred respondents. Results: Our data allowed the categorisation of 113 countries, accounting for 65% of the global population aged under 20. Number of countries (% of global child population) in each category were as follows: 1) no known activity, 21 (4%); 2) capacity-building, 16 (24%); 3a) isolated provision, 55 (30%); 3b) generalized provision, 5 (1%); 4a) preliminary integration into mainstream provision, 14 (8%); 4b) advanced integration, 7 (2%). Conclusions: Children's palliative care at the highest level of provision is available in just 21 countries, accounting for fewer than 10% of the global population aged under 20. It is concentrated in high income settings, whilst the majority of the global need for such care is in low- and middle-income countries. Our study is a useful tool for global advocacy relating to children's palliative care and a stimulus for the creation of improved indicators to measure it at the country level.

Mapping Levels of Palliative Care Development in 198 Countries: The Situation in 2017.

CONTEXT: Palliative care is gaining ground globally and is endorsed in high-level policy commitments, but service provision, supporting policies, education, and funding are incommensurate with rapidly growing needs. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to describe current levels of global palliative care development and report on changes since 2006. METHODS: An online survey of experts in 198 countries generated 2017 data on 10 indicators of palliative care provision, fitted to six categories of development. Factor analysis and discriminant analysis showed the validity of the categorization. Spearman correlation analyses assessed the relationship with World Bank Income Level (WBIL), Human Development Index (HDI), and Universal Health Coverage (UHC). RESULTS: Numbers (percentages) of countries in each development category were as follows: 1) no known palliative care activity, 47 (24%); 2) capacity-building, 13 (7%); 3a) isolated provision, 65 (33%); 3b) generalized provision, 22 (11%); 4a) preliminary integration into mainstream provision, 21 (11%); 4b) advanced integration, 30 (15%). Development levels were significantly associated with WBIL (rS = 0.4785), UHC (rS = 0.5558), and HDI (rS = 0.5426) with P < 0.001. Net improvement between 2006 and 2017 saw 32 fewer countries in Categories 1/2, 16 more countries in 3a/3b, and 17 more countries in 4a/4b. CONCLUSION: Palliative care at the highest level of provision is available for only 14% of the global population and is concentrated in European countries. An 87% global increase in serious health-related suffering amenable to palliative care interventions is predicted by 2060. With an increasing need, palliative care is not reaching the levels required by at least half of the global population.

Mapping the "housing with care" concept with stakeholders: insights from a UK case study.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this paper is to present the findings of an early stage, exploratory case study of a proposed housing with care initiative (the Crichton Care Campus (CCC)). This sought the perspectives of a range of key stakeholders on the proposed model and how it might be best realised. The analyses of these findings show their relevance to debates on integrated housing with care, and reflect on the methodology used and its potential relevance to similar projects. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The study used a transactive planning approach, where grounded views are sought from a variety of stakeholders. A purposive sample identified informants from relevant health, social care and housing organisations and nine semi-structured interviews were conducted. These were transcribed and data analysis was undertaken on an "interactive" basis, relating care theory to empirical expressions. FINDINGS: The authors identify two contrasting orientations - inclusive "community-oriented" and professional "service-oriented". This distinction provides the basis for a rudimentary conceptual map which can continue to be used in the planning process. Two significant variables within the conceptual map were the extent to which CCC should be intergenerational and as such, the degree to which care should come from formalised and self-care/informal sources. The potential to achieve an integrated approach was high with stakeholders across all sectors fully supporting the CCC concept and agreeing on the need for it to have a mixed tenure basis and include a range of non-care amenities. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This paper offers originality in two respects. Methodologically, it describes an attempt to undertake early stage care planning using a needs led transactive methodology. In more practical terms, it also offers an innovative environment for considering any approach to care planning that actively seeks integration - based on an acknowledgement of complexity, a variety of perspectives and possible conflicts. The authors propose that the concepts of "community-orientation" and "service-orientation" are used as a helpful basis for planning negotiations, making implicit divergences explicit and thus better delineated.

Realistic evaluation of hull performance for rowing shells, canoes, and kayaks in unsteady flow.

In this study, we investigated the effect of hull dynamics in shallow water on the hydrodynamic performance of rowing shells as well as canoes and kayaks. An approach was developed to generate data in a towing tank using a test rig capable of reproducing realistic speed profiles. The impact of unsteady shallow-water effects on wave-making resistance was examined via experimental measurements on a benchmark hull. The data generated were used to explore the validity of a computational approach developed to predict unsteady shallow-water wave resistance. Comparison of measured and predicted results showed that the computational approach correctly predicted complex unsteady wave-resistance phenomena at low oscillation frequency and speed, but that total resistance was substantially under-predicted at moderate oscillation frequency and speed. It was postulated that this discrepancy arose from unsteady viscous effects. This was investigated via hot-film measurements for a full-scale single scull in unsteady flow in both towing-tank and field-trial conditions. Results suggested a strong link between acceleration and turbulence and demonstrated that the measured real-world viscous-flow behaviour could be successfully reproduced in the tank. Thus a suitable tank-test approach could provide a reliable guide to hull performance characterization in unsteady flow.