Regional habitat suitability for aquatic and terrestrial invasive plant species may expand or contract with climate change.

The threat of invasive species to biodiversity and ecosystem structure is exacerbated by the increasingly concerning outlook of predicted climate change and other human influences. Developing preventative management strategies for invasive plant species before they establish is crucial for effective management. To examine how climate change may impact habitat suitability, we modeled the current and future habitat suitability of two terrestrial species, Geranium lucidum and Pilosella officinarum, and two aquatic species, Butomus umbellatus and Pontederia crassipes, that are relatively new invasive plant species regionally, and are currently spreading in the Pacific Northwest (PNW, North America), an area of unique natural areas, vibrant economic activity, and increasing human population. Using North American presence records, downscaled climate variables, and human influence data, we developed an ensemble model of six algorithms to predict the potential habitat suitability under current conditions and projected climate scenarios RCP 4.5, 7.0, and 8.5 for 2050 and 2080. One terrestrial species (P. officinarum) showed declining habitat suitability in future climate scenarios (contracted distribution), while the other terrestrial species (G. lucidum) showed increased suitability over much of the region (expanded distribution overall). The two aquatic species were predicted to have only moderately increased suitability, suggesting aquatic plant species may be less impacted by climate change. Our research provides a template for regional-scale modelling of invasive species of concern, thus assisting local land managers and practitioners to inform current and future management strategies and to prioritize limited available resources for species with expanding ranges. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-023-03139-8.

A novel MC1R allele for black coat colour reveals the Polynesian ancestry and hybridization patterns of Hawaiian feral pigs.

Pigs (Sus scrofa) have played an important cultural role in Hawaii since Polynesians first introduced them in approximately AD 1200. Additional varieties of pigs were introduced following Captain Cook's arrival in Hawaii in 1778 and it has been suggested that the current pig population may descend primarily, or even exclusively, from European pigs. Although populations of feral pigs today are an important source of recreational hunting on all of the major islands, they also negatively impact native plants and animals. As a result, understanding the origins of these feral pig populations has significant ramifications for discussions concerning conservation management, identity and cultural continuity on the islands. Here, we analysed a neutral mitochondrial marker and a functional nuclear coat colour marker in 57 feral Hawaiian pigs. Through the identification of a new mutation in the MC1R gene that results in black coloration, we demonstrate that Hawaiian feral pigs are mostly the descendants of those originally introduced during Polynesian settlement, though there is evidence for some admixture. As such, extant Hawaiian pigs represent a unique historical lineage that is not exclusively descended from feral pigs of European origin.

Understanding invasion history and predicting invasive niches using genetic sequencing technology in Australia: case studies from Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae.

Part of the challenge in dealing with invasive plant species is that they seldom represent a uniform, static entity. Often, an accurate understanding of the history of plant introduction and knowledge of the real levels of genetic diversity present in species and populations of importance is lacking. Currently, the role of genetic diversity in promoting the successful establishment of invasive plants is not well defined. Genetic profiling of invasive plants should enhance our understanding of the dynamics of colonization in the invaded range. Recent advances in DNA sequencing technology have greatly facilitated the rapid and complete assessment of plant population genetics. Here, we apply our current understanding of the genetics and ecophysiology of plant invasions to recent work on Australian plant invaders from the Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae. The Cucurbitaceae study showed that both prickly paddy melon (Cucumis myriocarpus) and camel melon (Citrullus lanatus) were represented by only a single genotype in Australia, implying that each was probably introduced as a single introduction event. In contrast, a third invasive melon, Citrullus colocynthis, possessed a moderate level of genetic diversity in Australia and was potentially introduced to the continent at least twice. The Boraginaceae study demonstrated the value of comparing two similar congeneric species; one, Echium plantagineum, is highly invasive and genetically diverse, whereas the other, Echium vulgare, exhibits less genetic diversity and occupies a more limited ecological niche. Sequence analysis provided precise identification of invasive plant species, as well as information on genetic diversity and phylogeographic history. Improved sequencing technologies will continue to allow greater resolution of genetic relationships among invasive plant populations, thereby potentially improving our ability to predict the impact of these relationships upon future spread and better manage invaders possessing potentially diverse biotypes and exhibiting diverse breeding systems, life histories and invasion histories.