Changing the default meal option at university events to reduce harmful environmental impacts: Six randomized controlled trials.

Animal agriculture is a leading contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and other harmful environmental impacts, which underscores the need to shift away from the consumption of animal-based products. One promising nudge intervention is making plant-based meals the default option, so we tested this approach at six different university events across four academic institutions for effecting sustainable dietary change. Event attendees pre-selected their meal on one of two randomly assigned RSVP forms: one with a plant-based default and one with a meal with meat default. The results from our randomized controlled trial showed that participants had a 43-percentage point greater probability of selecting the plant-based meal when it was indicated as the default option. This effect was similar across events and academic institutions, which indicates that this default intervention is generalizable and can be successfully implemented at university events. The combined effect of using plant-based defaults at these six events was an estimated reduction of 104,387 kg of CO2 emissions, 299.9 m2 of land use, 959.0 g of nitrogen use, and 259.5 g of phosphorus use, which represent roughly 45-46.2% reductions in harmful environmental impacts relative to the meals chosen when using a meat default. Given the significance and magnitude of these environmental benefits, our results support the widespread implementation of plant-based defaults for helping universities improve their sustainability.

The socioeconomic factors that facilitate or constrain restoration management: Watershed rehabilitation and wet meadow (bofedal) restoration in the Bolivian Andes.

Restoration ecology holds promise for addressing land degradation in impoverished rural environments, provided the approach is adapted to rural development settings. While there is a need for increased integration of social dynamics in land restoration, few systematic studies exist. We explored the socioeconomic factors that influence restoration management, including local motives and perceived benefits, incentives, land tenancy, institutional factors, conflict resolution, accessibility, off-farm labor, and outmigration. The study area is a successful watershed rehabilitation and wet meadow restoration project in the Bolivian Andes that began in 1992. We used household survey methods (n = 237) to compare the communities that had conducted the most restoration management with those that had conducted the least. Results suggest that several factors facilitate investments in land restoration, including aligning restoration objectives with local motives and perceived benefits, ensuring incentives are in place to stimulate long-term investments, conflict resolution, private land tenancy, and accessibility. However, higher levels of organization and active leadership can facilitate land restoration on communal lands. Increased livelihood benefits from land restoration helped slow the rate of rural to urban migration, with 24.5% outmigration in the highest restoration management communities compared to 62.1% in the lowest restoration management communities. Results suggest that land restoration projects that integrate community development into project planning and implementation will achieve greater success.

Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies.

Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission 'Managing the health effects of climate change' through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling the health co-benefits of climate policy provides policy-relevant information when the scenarios are reasonable, relevant, and thorough, and the model adequately addresses complexity. Greater consistency in selected modeling choices across the health co-benefits of climate mitigation research would facilitate evaluation of mitigation options particularly as they apply to the NDCs and promote policy uptake.

Effect of localizing fruit and vegetable consumption on greenhouse gas emissions and nutrition, Santa Barbara County.

The US agrifood system is very productive, but highly centralized and resource intensive with very weak links between production and consumption. This contributes to high levels of malnutrition and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). A popular approach to improvement is localization-reducing direct transport (farm to retail distance, or "food miles"). We examined Santa Barbara County (SBC) California, which mirrors the high production, nutritional and environmental problems, and growing localization movement of California. SBC ranks in the top 1% of US counties in value of agricultural products, and >80% of this value is produce (fruits and vegetables). We calculated the amount of produce grown in and consumed in SBC and estimated that >99% of produce grown in SBC is exported from the county, and >95% of produce consumed in SBC is imported. If all produce consumed in SBC was grown in the county (100% localization), it would reduce GHGE from the agrifood system <1%, and not necessarily affect nutrition. While food miles capture only a portion of the environmental impact of agrifood systems, localization could be done in ways that promote synergies between improving nutrition and reducing GHGE, and many such efforts exist in SBC.

Understanding the potential impact of transgenic crops in traditional agriculture: maize farmers' perspectives in Cuba, Guatemala and Mexico.

Genetically engineered transgenic crop varieties (TGVs) have spread rapidly in the last 10 years, increasingly to traditionally-based agricultural systems (TBAS) of the Third World both as seed and food. Proponents claim they are key to reducing hunger and negative environmental impacts of agriculture. Opponents claim they will have the opposite effect. The risk management process (RMP) is the primary way in which TGVs are regulated in the US (and many other industrial countries), and proponents claim that the findings of that process in the US and its regulatory consequences should be extended to TBAS. However, TBAS differ in important ways from industrial agriculture, so TGVs could have different effects in TBAS, and farmers there may evaluate risks and benefits differently. To evaluate some potential impacts of TGVs in TBAS we used the RMP as a framework for the case of Bt maize in Mesoamerica and Cuba. We interviewed 334 farmers in Cuba, Guatemala and Mexico about farming practices, evaluations of potential harm via hypothetical scenarios, and ranking of maize types. Results suggest high potential for transgene flow via seed, grain and pollen; differences in effects of this exposure in TBAS compared with industrial agriculture; farmers see some potential consequences as harmful. Perceptions of harm differ among farmers in ways determined by their farming systems, and are different from those commonly assumed in industrial systems. An RMP including participation of farmers and characteristics of TBAS critical for their functioning is necessary to ensure that investments in agricultural technologies will improve, not compromise these agricultural systems.

Detecting (trans)gene flow to landraces in centers of crop origin: lessons from the case of maize in Mexico.

There is much discussion of the probability of transgene flow from transgenic crop varieties to landraces and wild relatives in centers of origin or diversity, and its genetic, ecological, and social consequences. Without costly research on the variables determining gene flow, research on transgene frequencies in landrace (or wild relative) populations can be valuable for understanding transgene flow and its effects. Minimal research requirements include (1) understanding how farmer practices and seed systems affect landrace populations, (2) sampling to optimize Ne/n (effective/census population size), (3) minimizing variance at all levels sampled, and (4) using Ne to calculate binomial probabilities for transgene frequencies. A key case is maize in Mexico. Two peer-reviewed papers, based on landrace samples from the Sierra Juárez region of Oaxaca, Mexico, reached seemingly conflicting conclusions: transgenes are present (Quist and Chapela, 2001, Nature 414: 541-543; 2002, Nature 416: 602) or "detectable transgenes" are absent (Ortiz-García et al., 2005, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 102: 12338-12343 and 18242). We analyzed these papers using information on Oaxacan maize seed systems and estimates of Ne. We conclude that if Quist and Chapela's results showing presence are accepted, Ortiz-García et al.'s conclusions of no evidence of transgenes at detectable levels or for their introgression into maize landraces in the Sierra de Juárez of Oaxaca are not scientifically justified. This is because their samples are not representative, and their statistical analysis is inconclusive due to using n instead of Ne. Using estimates of Ne based on Ortiz-García et al.'s n, we estimate that transgenes could be present in maize landraces in the Sierra Juárez region at frequencies of approximately 1-4%, and are more likely to be present in the 90% of Oaxacan landrace area that is not mountainous. Thus, we have no scientific evidence of maize transgene presence or absence in recent years in Mexico, Oaxaca State, or the Sierra Juárez region.