Climate change vulnerability of Arctic char across Scandinavia.

Climate change is anticipated to cause species to shift their ranges upward and poleward, yet space for tracking suitable habitat conditions may be limited for range-restricted species at the highest elevations and latitudes of the globe. Consequently, range-restricted species inhabiting Arctic freshwater ecosystems, where global warming is most pronounced, face the challenge of coping with changing abiotic and biotic conditions or risk extinction. Here, we use an extensive fish community and environmental dataset for 1762 lakes sampled across Scandinavia (mid-1990s) to evaluate the climate vulnerability of Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), the world's most cold-adapted and northernly distributed freshwater fish. Machine learning models show that abiotic and biotic factors strongly predict the occurrence of Arctic char across the region with an overall accuracy of 89 percent. Arctic char is less likely to occur in lakes with warm summer temperatures, high dissolved organic carbon levels (i.e., browning), and presence of northern pike (Esox lucius). Importantly, climate warming impacts are moderated by habitat (i.e., lake area) and amplified by the presence of competitors and/or predators (i.e., northern pike). Climate warming projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario indicate that 81% of extant populations are at high risk of extirpation by 2080. Highly vulnerable populations occur across their range, particularly near the southern range limit and at lower elevations, with potential refugia found in some mountainous and coastal regions. Our findings highlight that range shifts may give way to range contractions for this cold-water specialist, indicating the need for pro-active conservation and mitigation efforts to avoid the loss of Arctic freshwater biodiversity.

Declines in body size of sockeye salmon associated with increased competition in the ocean.

Declining body sizes have been documented for several species of Pacific salmon; however, whether size declines are caused mainly by ocean warming or other ecological factors, and whether they result primarily from trends in age at maturation or changing growth rates remain poorly understood. We quantified changes in mean body size and contributions from shifting size-at-age and age structure of mature sockeye salmon returning to Bristol Bay, Alaska, over the past 60 years. Mean length declined by 3%, corresponding to a 10% decline in mean body mass, since the early 1960s, though much of this decline occurred since the early 2000s. Changes in size-at-age were the dominant cause of body size declines and were more consistent than trends in age structure among the major rivers that flow into Bristol Bay. Annual variation in size-at-age was largely explained by competition among Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and interspecific competition with other salmon in the North Pacific Ocean. Warm winters were associated with better growth of sockeye salmon, whereas warm summers were associated with reduced growth. Our findings point to competition at sea as the main driver of sockeye salmon size declines, and emphasize the trade-off between fish abundance and body size.

High dispersal rates in hybrids drive expansion of maladaptive hybridization.

Hybridization between native and invasive species, a major cause of biodiversity loss, can spread rapidly even when hybrids have reduced fitness. This paradox suggests that hybrids have greater dispersal rates than non-hybridized individuals, yet this mechanism has not been empirically tested in animal populations. Here, we test if non-native genetic introgression increases reproductive dispersal using a human-mediated hybrid zone between native cutthroat trout (<i>Oncorhynchus clarkii</i>) and invasive rainbow trout (<i>Oncorhynchus mykiss</i>) in a large and connected river system. We quantified the propensity for individuals to migrate from natal rearing habitats (migrate), reproduce in non-natal habitats (stray), and the joint probability of dispersal as a function of genetic ancestry. Hybrid trout with predominantly non-native rainbow trout ancestry were more likely to migrate as juveniles and to stray as adults. Overall, hybrids with greater than 50% rainbow trout ancestry were 5.7 times more likely to disperse than native or hybrid trout with small amounts of rainbow trout ancestry. Our results show a genetic basis for increased dispersal in hybrids that is likely contributing to the rapid expansion of invasive hybridization between these species. Management actions that decrease the probability of hybrid dispersal may mitigate the harmful effects of invasive hybridization on native biodiversity.

Fish community structure and dynamics are insufficient to mediate coral resilience.

Coral reefs are being impacted by myriad stressors leading to drastic changes to their structure and function. Fishes play essential roles in driving ecosystem processes on coral reefs but the extent to which these processes are emergent at temporal or ecosystem scales or otherwise masked by other drivers (for example, climatic events and crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) is poorly understood. Using time series data on fish community composition and coral and macroalgae percentage cover between 2006 and 2017 from 57 sites around Mo'orea, Polynesia, we found that fish community diversity predicts temporal stability in fish biomass but did not translate to temporal stability of coral cover. Furthermore, we found limited evidence of directional influence of fish on coral dynamics at temporal and ecosystem scales and no evidence that fish mediate coral recovery rate from disturbance. Our findings suggest that coral reef fisheries management will benefit from maintaining fish diversity but that this level of management is unlikely to strongly mediate coral loss or recovery over time.

Socioeconomic resilience to climatic extremes in a freshwater fishery.

Heterogeneity is a central feature of ecosystem resilience, but how this translates to socioeconomic resilience depends on people's ability to track shifting resources in space and time. Here, we quantify how climatic extremes have influenced how people (fishers) track economically valuable ecosystem services (fishing opportunities) across a range of spatial scales in rivers of the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, over the past three decades. Fishers opportunistically shifted from drought-sensitive to drought-resistant rivers during periods of low streamflows and warm temperatures. This adaptive behavior stabilized fishing pressure and expenditures by a factor of 2.6 at the scale of the regional fishery (i.e., portfolio effect). However, future warming is predicted to homogenize habitat options that enable adaptive behavior by fishers, putting ~30% of current spending at risk across the region. Maintaining a diverse portfolio of fishing opportunities that enable people to exploit shifting resources provides an important resilience mechanism for mitigating the socioeconomic impacts of climate change on fisheries.

A framework to integrate innovations in invasion science for proactive management.

Invasive alien species (IAS) are a rising threat to biodiversity, national security, and regional economies, with impacts in the hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars annually. Proactive or predictive approaches guided by scientific knowledge are essential to keeping pace with growing impacts of invasions under climate change. Although the rapid development of diverse technologies and approaches has produced tools with the potential to greatly accelerate invasion research and management, innovation has far outpaced implementation and coordination. Technological and methodological syntheses are urgently needed to close the growing implementation gap and facilitate interdisciplinary collaboration and synergy among evolving disciplines. A broad review is necessary to demonstrate the utility and relevance of work in diverse fields to generate actionable science for the ongoing invasion crisis. Here, we review such advances in relevant fields including remote sensing, epidemiology, big data analytics, environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling, genomics, and others, and present a generalized framework for distilling existing and emerging data into products for proactive IAS research and management. This integrated workflow provides a pathway for scientists and practitioners in diverse disciplines to contribute to applied invasion biology in a coordinated, synergistic, and scalable manner.

Climate change and expanding invasive species drive widespread declines of native trout in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA.

Climate change and invasive species are major threats to native biodiversity, but few empirical studies have examined their combined effects at large spatial and temporal scales. Using 21,917 surveys collected over 30 years, we quantified the impacts of climate change on the past and future distributions of five interacting native and invasive trout species throughout the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. We found that the occupancy of native bull trout and cutthroat trout declined by 18 and 6%, respectively (1993­2018), and was predicted to decrease by an additional 39 and 16% by 2080. However, reasons for these occupancy reductions markedly differed among species: Climate-driven increases in water temperature and decreases in summer flow likely caused declines of bull trout, while climate-induced expansion of invasive species largely drove declines of cutthroat trout. Our results demonstrate that climate change can affect ecologically similar, co-occurring native species through distinct pathways, necessitating species-specific management actions.

Specialized meltwater biodiversity persists despite widespread deglaciation.

Glaciers are important drivers of environmental heterogeneity and biological diversity across mountain landscapes. Worldwide, glaciers are receding rapidly due to climate change, with important consequences for biodiversity in mountain ecosystems. However, the effects of glacier loss on biodiversity have never been quantified across a mountainous region, primarily due to a lack of adequate data at large spatial and temporal scales. Here, we combine high-resolution biological and glacier change (ca. 1850-2015) datasets for Glacier National Park, USA, to test the prediction that glacier retreat reduces biodiversity in mountain ecosystems through the loss of uniquely adapted meltwater stream species. We identified a specialized cold-water invertebrate community restricted to the highest elevation streams primarily below glaciers, but also snowfields and groundwater springs. We show that this community and endemic species have unexpectedly persisted in cold, high-elevation sites, even in catchments that have not been glaciated in ∼170 y. Future projections suggest substantial declines in suitable habitat, but not necessarily loss of this community with the complete disappearance of glaciers. Our findings demonstrate that high-elevation streams fed by snow and other cold-water sources continue to serve as critical climate refugia for mountain biodiversity even after glaciers disappear.

Individual behavior drives ecosystem function and the impacts of harvest.

Current approaches for biodiversity conservation and management focus on sustaining high levels of diversity among species to maintain ecosystem function. We show that the diversity among individuals within a single population drives function at the ecosystem scale. Specifically, nutrient supply from individual fish differs from the population average >80% of the time, and accounting for this individual variation nearly doubles estimates of nutrients supplied to the ecosystem. We test how management (i.e., selective harvest regimes) can alter ecosystem function and find that strategies targeting more active individuals reduce nutrient supply to the ecosystem up to 69%, a greater effect than body size-selective or nonselective harvest. Findings show that movement behavior at the scale of the individual can have crucial repercussions for the functioning of an entire ecosystem, proving an important challenge to the species-centric definition of biodiversity if the conservation and management of ecosystem function is a primary goal.

Comment on "Demographic dynamics of the smallest marine vertebrates fuel coral reef ecosystem functioning".

Brandl et al (Reports, 21 June 2019, p. 1189) report that cryptobenthic fishes underpin coral reef ecosystem function by contributing ~60% of "consumed fish" biomass and ~20% of production. These results are artifacts of their simulation. Using their data and model, we show that cryptobenthic species contribute less than 4% to fish production, calling into question the extent to which they contribute to the high productivity of coral reefs.

Effects of warming climate and competition in the ocean for life-histories of Pacific salmon.

The life-histories of exploited fish species, such as Pacific salmon, are vulnerable to a wide variety of anthropogenic stressors including climate change, selective exploitation and competition with hatchery releases for finite foraging resources. However, these stressors may generate unexpected changes in life-histories due to developmental linkages when species complete their migratory life cycle in different habitats. We used multivariate time-series models to quantify changes in the prevalence of different life-history strategies of sockeye salmon from Bristol Bay, Alaska, over the past half-century-specifically, how they partition their lives between freshwater habitats and the ocean. Climate warming has decreased the time spent by salmon in their natal freshwater habitat, as climate-enhanced growth opportunities have enabled earlier migration to the ocean. Migration from freshwater at a younger age, and increasing competition from wild and hatchery-released salmon, have tended to delay maturation toward the salmon spending an additional year feeding in the ocean. Models evaluating the effects of size-selective fishing on these patterns had only small support. These stressors combine to reduce the size-at-age of fish vulnerable to commercial fisheries and have increasingly favoured a single-age class, potentially affecting the age class complexity that stabilizes this highly reliable resource.

Shifting habitat mosaics and fish production across river basins.

Watersheds are complex mosaics of habitats whose conditions vary across space and time as landscape features filter overriding climate forcing, yet the extent to which the reliability of ecosystem services depends on these dynamics remains unknown. We quantified how shifting habitat mosaics are expressed across a range of spatial scales within a large, free-flowing river, and how they stabilize the production of Pacific salmon that support valuable fisheries. The strontium isotope records of ear stones (otoliths) show that the relative productivity of locations across the river network, as both natal- and juvenile-rearing habitat, varies widely among years and that this variability is expressed across a broad range of spatial scales, ultimately stabilizing the interannual production of fish at the scale of the entire basin.

Fisheries portfolio diversification and turnover buffer Alaskan fishing communities from abrupt resource and market changes.

Abrupt shifts in natural resources and their markets are a ubiquitous challenge to human communities. Building resilient social-ecological systems requires approaches that are robust to uncertainty and to regime shifts. Harvesting diverse portfolios of natural resources and adapting portfolios in response to change could stabilize economies reliant on natural resources and their markets, both of which are prone to unpredictable shifts. Here we use fisheries catch and revenue data from Alaskan fishing communities over 34 years to test whether diversification and turnover in the composition of fishing opportunities increased economic stability during major ocean and market regime shifts in 1989. More than 85% of communities show reduced fishing revenues following these regime shifts. However, communities with the highest portfolio diversity and those that could opportunistically shift the composition of resources they harvest, experienced negligible or even positive changes in revenue. Maintaining diversity in economic opportunities and enabling turnover facilitates sustainability of communities reliant on renewable resources facing uncertain futures.

Inter-Tributary Movements by Resident Salmonids across a Boreal Riverscape.

Stream-dwelling fishes inhabit river networks where resources are distributed heterogeneously across space and time. Current theory emphasizes that fishes often perform large-scale movements among habitat patches for reproduction and seeking refugia, but assumes that fish are relatively sedentary during growth phases of their life cycle. Using stationary passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tag antennas and snorkel surveys, we assessed the individual and population level movement patterns of two species of fish across a network of tributaries within the Wood River basin in southwestern Alaska where summer foraging opportunities vary substantially among streams, seasons, and years. Across two years, Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) exhibited kilometer-scale movements among streams during the summer growing season. Although we monitored movements at a small fraction of all tributaries used by grayling and rainbow trout, approximately 50% of individuals moved among two or more streams separated by at least 7 km within a single summer. Movements were concentrated in June and July, and subsided by early August. The decline in movements coincided with spawning by anadromous sockeye salmon, which offer a high-quality resource pulse of food to resident species. Inter-stream movements may represent prospecting behavior as individuals seek out the most profitable foraging opportunities that are patchily distributed across space and time. Our results highlight that large-scale movements may not only be necessary for individuals to fulfill their life-cycle, but also to exploit heterogeneously spaced trophic resources. Therefore, habitat fragmentation and homogenization may have strong, but currently undescribed, ecological effects on the access to critical food resources in stream-dwelling fish populations.

Predator avoidance during reproduction: diel movements by spawning sockeye salmon between stream and lake habitats.

Daily movements of mobile organisms between habitats in response to changing trade-offs between predation risk and foraging gains are well established; however, less in known about whether similar tactics are used during reproduction, a time period when many organisms are particularly vulnerable to predators. We investigated the reproductive behaviour of adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) and the activity of their principal predator, brown bears (Ursus arctos), on streams in south-western Alaska. Specifically, we continuously monitored movements of salmon between lake habitat, where salmon are invulnerable to bears, and three small streams, where salmon spawn and are highly vulnerable to bears. We conducted our study across 2 years that offered a distinct contrast in bear activity and predation rates. Diel movements by adult sockeye salmon between stream and lake habitat were observed in 51.3% ± 17.7% (mean ± SD) of individuals among years and sites. Fish that moved tended to hold in the lake for most of the day and then migrated into spawning streams during the night, coincident with when bear activity on streams tended to be lowest. Additionally, cyclic movements between lakes and spawning streams were concentrated earlier in the spawning season. Individuals that exhibited diel movements had longer average reproductive life spans than those who made only one directed movement into a stream. However, the relative effect was dependent on the timing of bear predation, which varied between years. When predation pressure primarily occurred early in the spawning run (i.e., during the height of the diel movements), movers lived 120-310% longer than non-movers. If predation pressure was concentrated later in the spawning run (i.e. when most movements had ceased), movers only lived 10-60% longer. Our results suggest a dynamic trade-off in reproductive strategies of sockeye salmon; adults must be in the stream to reproduce, but must also avoid predation long enough to spawn. Given the interannual variation in the timing and intensity of predation pressure, the advantages of a particular movement strategy will likely vary among years. Regardless, movements by salmon allowed individuals to exploit fine-scale habitat heterogeneity during reproduction, which appears to be a strategy to reduce predation risk on the spawning grounds.

Climate change expands the spatial extent and duration of preferred thermal habitat for lake Superior fishes.

Climate change is expected to alter species distributions and habitat suitability across the globe. Understanding these shifting distributions is critical for adaptive resource management. The role of temperature in fish habitat and energetics is well established and can be used to evaluate climate change effects on habitat distributions and food web interactions. Lake Superior water temperatures are rising rapidly in response to climate change and this is likely influencing species distributions and interactions. We use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model that captures temperature changes in Lake Superior over the last 3 decades to investigate shifts in habitat size and duration of preferred temperatures for four different fishes. We evaluated habitat changes in two native lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) ecotypes, siscowet and lean lake trout, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and walleye (Sander vitreus). Between 1979 and 2006, days with available preferred thermal habitat increased at a mean rate of 6, 7, and 5 days per decade for lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye, respectively. Siscowet lake trout lost 3 days per decade. Consequently, preferred habitat spatial extents increased at a rate of 579, 495 and 419 km(2) per year for the lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye while siscowet lost 161 km(2) per year during the modeled period. Habitat increases could lead to increased growth and production for three of the four fishes. Consequently, greater habitat overlap may intensify interguild competition and food web interactions. Loss of cold-water habitat for siscowet, having the coldest thermal preference, could forecast potential changes from continued warming. Additionally, continued warming may render more suitable conditions for some invasive species.