The Role of Severe Dementia in Nursing Home Report Cards.

Health care report cards are intended to improve quality, but there may be considerable heterogeneity in who benefits. In this article, we examine the intended and unintended effects of quality reporting for nursing home residents with severe dementia relative to other residents, using a difference-in-differences design to examine selected reported and unreported quality measures. Our results indicate that prior to public reporting, nursing home residents with severe dementia were at significantly higher risk of poor outcomes on most reported quality measures. After public reporting was initiated, outcomes for nursing home residents with severe dementia did not consistently improve or worsen. We see no evidence that individuals with severe dementia are being avoided by nursing homes, despite their potential negative impact on quality scores, but we do find an increase in coding of end-stage disease. Additional risk-adjustment, stratification, or additional quality measures may be warranted.

Predicting the EQ-5D-3L Preference Index from the SF-12 Health Survey in a National US Sample: A Finite Mixture Approach.

BACKGROUND: . When data on preferences are not available, analysts rely on condition-specific or generic measures of health status like the SF-12 for predicting or mapping preferences. Such prediction is challenging because of the characteristics of preference data, which are bounded, have multiple modes, and have a large proportion of observations clustered at values of 1. METHODS: . We developed a finite mixture model for cross-sectional data that maps the SF-12 to the EQ-5D-3L preference index. Our model characterizes the observed EQ-5D-3L index as a mixture of 3 distributions: a degenerate distribution with mass at values indicating perfect health and 2 censored (Tobit) normal distributions. Using estimation and validation samples derived from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey 2000 dataset, we compared the prediction performance of these mixture models to that of 2 previously proposed methods: ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and two-part models. RESULTS: . Finite mixture models in which predictions are based on classification outperform two-part models and OLS regression based on mean absolute error, with substantial improvement for samples with fewer respondents in good health. The potential for misclassification is reflected on larger root mean square errors. Moreover, mixture models underperform around the center of the observed distribution. CONCLUSIONS: . Finite mixtures offer a flexible modeling approach that can take into account idiosyncratic characteristics of the distribution of preferences. The use of mixture models allows researchers to obtain estimates of health utilities when only summary scores from the SF-12 and a limited number of demographic characteristics are available. Mixture models are particularly useful when the target sample does not have a large proportion of individuals in good health.

Understanding why patients with COPD get readmitted: a large national study to delineate the Medicare population for the readmissions penalty expansion.

BACKGROUND: The Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) penalizes hospitals for 30-day readmissions and was extended to COPD in October 2014. There is limited evidence available on readmission risk factors and reasons for readmission to guide hospitals in initiating programs to reduce COPD readmissions. METHODS: Medicare claims data from 2006 to 2010 in seven states were analyzed, with an index admission for COPD defined by discharge International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes as stipulated in the HRRP guidelines. Rates of index COPD admission and readmission, patient demographics, readmission diagnoses, and use of post-acute care (PAC) were investigated. RESULTS: Over the study period, there were 26,798,404 inpatient admissions, of which 3.5% were index COPD admissions. At 30 days, 20.2% were readmitted to the hospital. Respiratory-related diseases accounted for only one-half of the reasons for readmission, and COPD was the most common diagnosis, explaining 27.6% of all readmissions. Patients discharged home without home care were more likely to be readmitted for COPD than patients discharged to PAC (31.1% vs 18.8%, P < .001). Readmitted beneficiaries were more likely to be dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid (30.6% vs 25.4%, P < .001), have a longer median length of stay (5 days vs 4 days, P < .0001), and have more comorbidities (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Medicare patients with COPD exacerbations are usually not readmitted for COPD, and these reasons differ depending on PAC use. Readmitted patients are more likely to be dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid, suggesting that the addition of COPD to the readmissions penalty may further worsen the disproportionately high penalties seen in safety net hospitals.

Antidepressant treatment and suicide attempts and self-inflicted injury in children and adolescents.

PURPOSE: In the 2004, FDA placed a black box warning on antidepressants for risk of suicidal thoughts and behavior in children and adolescents. The purpose of this paper is to examine the risk of suicide attempt and self-inflicted injury in depressed children ages 5-17 treated with antidepressants in two large observational datasets taking account time-varying confounding. METHODS: We analyzed two large US medical claims databases (MarketScan and LifeLink) containing 221,028 youth (ages 5-17) with new episodes of depression, with and without antidepressant treatment during the period of 2004-2009. Subjects were followed for up to 180 days. Marginal structural models were used to adjust for time-dependent confounding. RESULTS: For both datasets, significantly increased risk of suicide attempts and self-inflicted injury were seen during antidepressant treatment episodes in the unadjusted and simple covariate adjusted analyses. Marginal structural models revealed that the majority of the association is produced by dynamic confounding in the treatment selection process; estimated odds ratios were close to 1.0 consistent with the unadjusted and simple covariate adjusted association being a product of chance alone. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests antidepressant treatment selection is a product of both static and dynamic patient characteristics. Lack of adjustment for treatment selection based on dynamic patient characteristics can lead to the appearance of an association between antidepressant treatment and suicide attempts and self-inflicted injury among youths in unadjusted and simple covariate adjusted analyses. Marginal structural models can be used to adjust for static and dynamic treatment selection processes such as that likely encountered in observational studies of associations between antidepressant treatment selection, suicide and related behaviors in youth.

Trends in stroke rates, risk, and outcomes in the United States, 1988 to 2008.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. We describe trends in the incidence, outcomes, and risk factors for stroke in the US Medicare population from 1988 to 2008. METHODS: We analyzed data from a 20% sample of hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries with a principal discharge diagnosis of ischemic (n = 918,124) or hemorrhagic stroke (n = 133,218). Stroke risk factors were determined from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (years 1988-1994, 2001-2008) and medication uptake from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (years 1992-2008). Primary outcomes were stroke incidence and 30-day mortality after stroke hospitalization. RESULTS: Ischemic stroke incidence decreased from 927 per 100,000 in 1988 to 545 per 100,000 in 2008, and hemorrhagic stroke decreased from 112 per 100,000 to 94 per 100,000. Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality decreased from 15.9% in 1988 to 12.7% in 2008 for ischemic stroke and from 44.7% to 39.3% for hemorrhagic stroke. Although observed stroke rates decreased, the Framingham stroke model actually predicted increased stroke risk (mean stroke score 8.3% in 1988-1994, 8.8% in 2005-2008). Statin use in the general population increased (4.0% in 1992, 41.4% in 2008), as did antihypertensive use (53.0% in 1992, 73.5% in 2008). CONCLUSIONS: Incident strokes in the Medicare population aged ≥65 years decreased by approximately 40% over the last 2 decades, a decline greater than expected on the basis of the population's stroke risk factors. Case fatality from stroke also declined. Although causality cannot be proven, declining stroke rates paralleled increased use of statins and antihypertensive medications.

Mortality reduction among pneumonia patients still substantial despite the impact of coding changes.

BACKGROUND: Accounting for changes in coding practices may be important in analyzing trends based on administrative data. Several studies have demonstrated large reductions in mortality over time among pneumonia patients. However, a recent study suggested that this reduction may have been an artifact of case definition because more of the highest-risk patients were being coded under alternative principal diagnoses in recent years. METHODS: Using the National Inpatient Sample from 1993 to 2005, we selected hospitalizations with a principal diagnosis of pneumonia or a secondary diagnosis of pneumonia and a principal diagnosis of sepsis or respiratory failure. We performed logistic regression, estimating the likelihood of in-hospital mortality in each year, adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities. RESULTS: Over time, there was a substantial increase in the frequency of sepsis and respiratory failure as a principal diagnosis. Length of stay decreased in all 3 principal diagnosis groups. By 2005, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of death among principal diagnosis pneumonia and respiratory failure hospitalizations decreased to 0.50 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.49-0.51) and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.58-0.66), respectively, compared with 1993. With all 3 groups combined, there was still a substantial, albeit attenuated, reduction in the risk of mortality (OR(2005) 0.70; 95% CI, 0.69-0.72). CONCLUSIONS: Survival of patients with community-acquired pneumonia has improved greatly over time. However, interpretation of such findings based on administrative data must be made with caution and careful attention to case definition and coding trends.

Marked reduction in 30-day mortality among elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia is the most common infectious cause of death in the US. Over the last 2 decades, patient characteristics and clinical care have changed. To understand the impact of these changes, we quantified incidence and mortality trends among elderly adults. METHODS: We used Medicare claims to identify episodes of pneumonia, based on a validated combination of diagnosis codes. Comorbidities were ascertained using the diagnosis codes located on a 1-year look back. Trends in patient characteristics and site of care were compared. The association between year of pneumonia episode and 30-day mortality was then evaluated by logistic regression, with adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidities. RESULTS: We identified 2,654,955 cases of pneumonia from 1987-2005. During this period, the proportion treated as inpatients decreased, the proportion aged ≥80 years increased, and the frequency of many comorbidities rose. Adjusted incidence increased to 3096 episodes per 100,000 population in 1999, with some decrease thereafter. Age/sex-adjusted mortality decreased from 13.5% to 9.7%, a relative reduction of 28.1%. Compared with 1987, the risk of mortality decreased through 2005 (adjusted odds ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.47). This result was robust to a restriction on comorbid diagnoses assessing for the results' sensitivity to increased coding. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show a marked mortality reduction over time in community-acquired pneumonia patients. We hypothesize that increased pneumococcal and influenza vaccination rates as well as wider use of guideline-concordant antibiotics explain a large portion of this trend.

Trends in mortality and medical spending in patients hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia: 1993-2005.

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the most common infectious cause of death in the United States. To understand the effect of efforts to improve quality and efficiency of care in CAP, we examined the trends in mortality and costs among hospitalized CAP patients. METHODS: Using the National Inpatient Sample between 1993 and 2005, we studied 569,524 CAP admissions. The primary outcome was mortality at discharge. We used logistic regression to evaluate the mortality trend, adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities. To account for the effect of early discharge practices, we also compared daily mortality rates and performed a Cox proportional hazards model. We used a generalized linear model to analyze trends in hospitalization costs, which were derived using cost-to-charge ratios. RESULTS: Over time, length of stay declined, while more patients were discharged to other facilities. The frequency of many comorbidities increased. Age/gender-adjusted mortality decreased from 8.9% to 4.1% (P < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, the mortality risk declined through 2005 (odds ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.53), compared with the reference year 1993. The daily mortality rates demonstrated that most of the mortality reduction occurred early during hospitalization. After adjusting for early discharge practices, the risk of mortality still declined through 2005 (hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.78). Median hospitalization costs exhibited a moderate reduction over time, mostly because of reduced length of stay. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality among patients hospitalized for CAP has declined. Lower in-hospital mortality at a reduced cost suggests that pneumonia is a case of improved productivity in health care.

Incidence and mortality of hip fractures in the United States.

CONTEXT: Understanding the incidence and subsequent mortality following hip fracture is essential to measuring population health and the value of improvements in health care. OBJECTIVE: To examine trends in hip fracture incidence and resulting mortality over 20 years in the US Medicare population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: Observational study using data from a 20% sample of Medicare claims from 1985-2005. In patients 65 years or older, we identified 786,717 hip fractures for analysis. Medication data were obtained from 109,805 respondents to the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey between 1992 and 2005. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and age- and risk-adjusted mortality rates. RESULTS: Between 1986 and 2005, the annual mean number of hip fractures was 957.3 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI], 921.7-992.9) for women and 414.4 per 100,000 (95% CI, 401.6-427.3) for men. The age-adjusted incidence of hip fracture increased from 1986 to 1995 and then steadily declined from 1995 to 2005. In women, incidence increased 9.0%, from 964.2 per 100,000 (95% CI, 958.3-970.1) in 1986 to 1050.9 (95% CI, 1045.2-1056.7) in 1995, with a subsequent decline of 24.5% to 793.5 (95% CI, 788.7-798.3) in 2005. In men, the increase in incidence from 1986 to 1995 was 16.4%, from 392.4 (95% CI, 387.8-397.0) to 456.6 (95% CI, 452.0-461.3), and the subsequent decrease to 2005 was 19.2%, to 369.0 (95% CI, 365.1-372.8). Age- and risk-adjusted mortality in women declined by 11.9%, 14.9%, and 8.8% for 30-, 180-, and 360-day mortality, respectively. For men, age- and risk-adjusted mortality decreased by 21.8%, 25.4%, and 20.0% for 30-, 180-, and 360-day mortality, respectively. Over time, patients with hip fracture have had an increase in all comorbidities recorded except paralysis. The incidence decrease is coincident with increased use of bisphosphonates. CONCLUSION: In the United States, hip fracture rates and subsequent mortality among persons 65 years and older are declining, and comorbidities among patients with hip fractures have increased.

Role of patient experience in antidepressant adherence: a retrospective data analysis.

BACKGROUND: In a previous study, we found that past medication use was associated with medication adherence in patients prescribed atypical antipsychotics. OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to determine whether past medication experience was associated with adherence in patients prescribed selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors. METHODS: Deidentified computerized pharmacy records of patients from 1157 pharmacies throughout the United States were used to select patients who were dispensed extended-release venlafaxine, controlled-release paroxetine, sertraline, fluoxetine, escitalopram, and/or citalopram between October 1, 2003, and March 31, 2004. Patients who were dispensed an antidepressant during this enrollment period were stratified into 2 groups. One group consisted of patients to whom an antidepressant medication had not been dispensed in the 180-day period prior to the index date. The other group was composed of individuals who had been dispensed an antidepressant during that period. Discontinuation was defined as being > or =30 days late for a scheduled refill. Adherence was measured using Kaplan-Meier analysis during a 360-day follow-up period. RESULTS: Of 211,565 patients analyzed, 38.5% had not received an antidepressant previously; 74.0% of the total sample were women. The mean age was 50.5 years. The median times to medication discontinuation were 67 days in patients not previously dispensed an antidepressant and 184 days in those who were. Discontinuation in the first 30 days was observed in 38.8% of patients not previously dispensed an antidepressant and in 18.8% of those who were. CONCLUSIONS: Prior antidepressant receipt rather than the use of a particular medication was associatedwith antidepressant adherence in this analysis. Patients without prior antidepressant receipt faced twice the risk for discontinuation during the first 30 days of treatment.

Role of patient experience in atypical antipsychotic adherence: a retrospective data analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We report on differences in atypical antipsychotic adherence after the start of outpatient treatment with atypical antipsychotics in patients receiving routine clinical care, based on whether they had been dispensed antipsychotic medication during the previous 180 days. We hypothesized that prior receipt of an antipsychotic prescription would identify patients with a reduced risk for medication discontinuation, perhaps due to greater experience with illness and/or medication experience. METHODS: De-identified computerized pharmacy records of 406,032 patients from 1157 pharmacies throughout the United States were used to select patients who were dispensed a noninjectable atypical antipsychotic between October 1, 2003, and March 31, 2004. Patients receiving an atypical antipsychotic prescription during this enrollment period were divided into 2 groups. One group consisted of patients to whom antipsychotic medications had been dispensed in the 180-day period prior to the index outpatient fill. The other group was composed of individuals who had not been dispensed a conventional or atypical antipsychotic during this period. Adherence was measured using Kaplan-Meier time-to-discontinuation analysis during a 360-day follow up period after the enrollment date. Discontinuation was defined as being 30 days late for a scheduled refill. RESULTS: Patients without receipt of an antipsychotic in the 180-day period prior to the index fill composed 32.6% of the total sample of patients (N = 406,432). Women composed 55.2% of the sample; men, 44.8%. The mean age was 43.7 years. In patients previously dispensed an antipsychotic medication, the median time to discontinuation was 125 days, while in patients not previously dispensed an antipsychotic medication, this value was 34 days. CONCLUSIONS: In this analysis of data from pharmacy records, past antipsychotic use appeared to be associated with atypical antipsychotic adherence. Patients without evidence of having been dispensed antipsychotic medication during the 180 days prior to the index antipsychotic prescription appeared to have a high risk for medication discontinuation in the first 30 days after the start of outpatient therapy. This finding suggests that close follow-up during that period in patients who are either new to antipsychotic medication or who are being restarted on an antipsychotic after a prolonged lapse in use may be beneficial.