An approach to classifying occupational exposures to endocrine disrupting chemicals by sex hormone function using an expert judgment process.

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are exogenous substances that interfere with the endocrine system and cause adverse effects. We aimed to classify the effects of 24 known EDCs, prevalent in certain occupations, according to four modes of action (estrogenic, antiestrogenic, androgenic, and/or antiandrogenic). A literature search, stratified into four types of literature was conducted (namely: national and international agency reports; review articles; primary studies; ToxCastTM). The state of the evidence of each EDC on sex hormone function was summarized and reviewed by an expert panel. For each mode of action, the experts evaluated the likelihood of endocrine disruption in five categories: "No", "Unlikely", "Possibly", "Probably", and "Yes". Seven agents were categorized as "Yes," or having strong evidence for their effects on sex hormone function (antiandrogenic: lead, arsenic, butylbenzyl phthalate, dibutyl phthalate, dicyclohexyl phthalate; estrogenic: nonylphenol, bisphenol A). Nine agents were categorized as "Probable," or having probable evidence (antiandrogenic: bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate, nonylphenol, toluene, bisphenol A, diisononyl phthalate; androgenic: cadmium; estrogenic: copper, cadmium and; anti-estrogenic: lead). Two agents (arsenic, polychlorinated biphenyls) had opposing conclusions supporting both "probably" estrogenic and antiestrogenic effects. This synthesis will allow researchers to evaluate the health effects of selected EDCs with an added level of precision related to the mode of action.

Comparison of cancer slope factors using different statistical approaches.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's cancer guidelines (USEPA, 2005) present the default approach for the cancer slope factor (denoted here as s*) as the slope of the linear extrapolation to the origin, generally drawn from the 95% lower confidence limit on dose at the lowest prescribed risk level supported by the data. In the past, the cancer slope factor has been calculated as the upper 95% confidence limit on the coefficient (q*1) of the linear term of the multistage model for the extra cancer risk over background. To what extent do the two approaches differ in practice? We addressed this issue by calculating s* and q*1 for 102 data sets for 60 carcinogens using the constrained multistage model to fit the dose-response data. We also examined how frequently the fitted dose-response curves departed appreciably from linearity at low dose by comparing q1, the coefficient of the linear term in the multistage polynomial, with a slope factor, sc, derived from a point of departure based on the maximum likelihood estimate of the dose-response. Another question we addressed is the extent to which s* exceeded sc for various levels of extra risk. For the vast majority of chemicals, the prescribed default EPA methodology for the cancer slope factor provides values very similar to that obtained with the traditionally estimated q*1. At 10% extra risk, q*1/s* is greater than 0.3 for all except one data set; for 82% of the data sets, q*1 is within 0.9 to 1.1 of s*. At the 10% response level, the interquartile range of the ratio, s*/sc, is 1.4 to 2.0.

Assessing susceptibility from early-life exposure to carcinogens.

Cancer risk assessment methods currently assume that children and adults are equally susceptible to exposure to chemicals. We reviewed available scientific literature to determine whether this was scientifically supported. We identified more than 50 chemicals causing cancer after perinatal exposure. Human data are extremely limited, with radiation exposures showing increased early susceptibility at some tumor sites. Twenty-seven rodent studies for 18 chemicals had sufficient data after postnatal and adult exposures to quantitatively estimate potential increased susceptibility from early-life exposure, calculated as the ratio of juvenile to adult cancer potencies for three study types: acute dosing, repeated dosing, and lifetime dosing. Twelve of the chemicals act through a mutagenic mode of action. For these, the geometric mean ratio was 11 for lifetime exposures and 8.7 for repeat exposures, with a ratio of 10 for these studies combined. The geometric mean ratio for acute studies is 1.5, which was influenced by tissue-specific results [geometric mean ratios for kidney, leukemia, liver, lymph, mammary, nerve, reticular tissue, thymic lymphoma, and uterus/vagina > 1 (range, 1.6-8.1); forestomach, harderian gland, ovaries, and thyroid < 1 (range, 0.033-0.45)]. Chemicals causing cancer through other modes of action indicate some increased susceptibility from postnatal exposure (geometric mean ratio is 3.4 for lifetime exposure, 2.2 for repeat exposure). Early exposures to compounds with endocrine activity sometimes produce different tumors after exposures at different ages. These analyses suggest increased susceptibility to cancer from early-life exposure, particularly for chemicals acting through a mutagenic mode of action.

Estimating cancer risk from outdoor concentrations of hazardous air pollutants in 1990.

A public health concern regarding hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) is their potential to cause cancer. It has been difficult to assess potential cancer risks from HAPs, due primarily to lack of ambient concentration data for the general population. The Environmental Protection Agency's Cumulative Exposure Project modeled 1990 outdoor concentrations of HAPs across the United States, which were combined with inhalation unit risk estimates to estimate the potential increase in excess cancer risk for individual carcinogenic HAPs. These were summed to provide an estimate of cancer risk from multiple HAPs. The analysis estimates a median excess cancer risk of 18 lifetime cancer cases per 100,000 people for all HAP concentrations. About 75% of estimated cancer risk was attributable to exposure to polycyclic organic matter, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, benzene, and chromium. Consideration of some specific uncertainties, including underestimation of ambient concentrations, combining upper 95% confidence bound potency estimates, and changes to potency estimates, found that cancer risk may be underestimated by 15% or overestimated by 40-50%. Other unanalyzed uncertainties could make these under- or overestimates larger. This analysis used 1990 estimates of concentrations and can be used to track progress toward reducing cancer risk to the general population.

Assessing the cancer risk from environmental PCBs.

A new approach to assessing the cancer risk from environmental polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) considers both toxicity and environmental processes to make distinctions among environmental mixtures. New toxicity information from a 1996 cancer study of four commercial mixtures strengthens the case that all PCB mixtures can cause cancer, although different mixtures have different potencies. Environmental processes alter PCB mixtures through partitioning, chemical transformation, and preferential bioaccumulation; these processes can increase or decrease toxicity considerably. Bioaccumulated PCBs are of greatest concern because they appear to be more toxic than commercial PCBs and more persistent in the body. The new approach uses toxicity studies of commercial mixtures to develop a range of cancer potency estimates and then considers the effect of environmental processes to choose appropriate values for representative classes of environmental mixtures. Guidance is given for assessing risks from different exposure pathways, less-than-lifetime and early-life exposures, and mixtures containing dioxinlike compounds.

Plausible upper bounds: are their sums plausible?

Quantitative cancer risk assessments are typically expressed as plausible upper bounds rather than estimates of central tendency. In analyses involving several carcinogens, these upper bounds are often summed to estimate overall risk. This begs the question of whether a sum of upper bounds is itself a plausible estimate of overall risk. This question can be asked in two ways: whether the sum yields an improbable estimate of overall risk (that is, is it only remotely possible for the true sum of risks to match the sum of upper bounds), or whether the sum gives a misleading estimate (that is, is the true sum of risks likely to be very different from the sum of upper bounds). Analysis of four case studies shows that as the number of risk estimates increases, their sum becomes increasingly improbable, but not misleading. Though the overall risk depends on the independence, additivity, and number of risk estimates, as well as the shapes of the underlying risk distributions, sums of upper bounds provide useful information about the overall risk and can be adjusted downward to give a more plausible [perhaps probable] upper bound, or even a central estimate of overall risk.

Trichloroethylene health risk assessment: a new and improved process.

Trichloroethylene (TCE), an environmental contaminant of National concern, is the focus of a new health risk assessment process incorporating the Proposed Cancer Risk Assessment Guidelines. This paper describes not only how TCE became an environmental problem for the Air Force, but also details the new Risk Assessment process envisioned by the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA). Insights on epidemiological evaluations, both past and future, and their impact on the cancer classification of TCE are discussed. Examples of how physiologically based pharmacokinetics and dose-response characterization described in the new Cancer Guidelines are applied to TCE are provided. In addition, a variety of modeling techniques are discussed for the development of reference doses (oral exposure) and reference concentrations (inhalation exposures) for TCE. Finally, the role of risk communication is included. This new process provides an example of how interagency (EPA, Department of Defense. Department of Energy) and extramural (industry, academia) partnerships can provide greater gains to the nation, as a whole, than any of the parts on their own.

Quantitative cancer assessment for vinyl chloride: indications of early-life sensitivity.

Complementary sources of information are analyzed to characterize the early-life cancer risk from inhaling vinyl chloride. A study of partial-lifetime exposures suggests that the lifetime cancer risk depends on age at exposure, with higher lifetime risks attributable to exposures at younger ages. Studies of newborn animal exposures further demonstrate that a brief exposure in newborns can, by the end of life, induce a higher incidence of tumors compared to long-term exposure occurring later in life, including tumor types not induced by exposure later in life. An empirical, quantitative approach is used to model early-life sensitivity to inhaled vinyl chloride, supplementing conventional approaches for estimating the increased cancer risk from lifetime exposure. A single estimate is not presumed to apply to the entire population; instead, the new approach makes distinctions about the cancer risks for different population segments. This assessment shows one way such information might be analyzed, presented, and used to assess actual exposure situations.

A case study of cancer data set combinations for PCBs.

Results of several animal bioassays have demonstrated the carcinogenic potential of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) mixtures. Although PCBs are no longer manufactured, cancer risk assessment for PCBs remains an important issue because of continued potential human exposure from many sources. The existing cancer risk estimate for PCBs used by the U.S. EPA is based on liver tumors observed in female Sprague-Dawley rats in a lifetime bioassay. Liver cancer has been observed in other long-term bioassays as well. In this case study, experimental designs and biological characteristics of the data from these studies were evaluated to determine whether a combination of the data sets is scientifically reasonable. A statistical analysis of the data sets based on likelihood ratio theory was used to assess the compatibility of individual data sets to a common multistage dose-response model. The results from these biological and statistical assessments suggest that at least two data sets could be combined to derive a quantitative risk estimate for PCBs. Increased confidence in the quantitative estimate would result from such combination because more data are being used to assess the dose-response relationship.