Key Opinion Leaders' Interviews to Inform the Future of Benefit-Risk Planning in the Medical Total Product Life Cycle of Global Pharmaceutical and Medical Device Organizations.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Key opinion leader (KOL) interviews were conducted by the Benefit-Risk Assessment Planning (BRAP) Taskforce to seek expert opinion mainly from industry and regulatory bodies, about the current status and future direction of benefit-risk assessment (BRA) planning in the lifecycle of medical product development. The findings from these interviews are intended to help communication concerning planning for BRA between industry and regulators and shape future guidance. METHODS: Key opinion leader interviews consisted of 5 questions related to BRA planning, which were administered to volunteers (mainly clinicians and statisticians) within a pool of experienced pharmaceutical and medical device professionals representing academia, industry, regulatory agencies and a patient group. The interviewees' responses to the 5 questions were summarized. To analyze the qualitative data, a Coding System was developed to label themes arising from the interviews. The key findings from the interviews were summarized into a Master Template. A quantitative analysis based on descriptive statistics was also conducted. RESULTS: Of the 27 interviewees, there were 11 professionals from regulatory agencies, 11 from industry, 4 from academia and 1 from a patient advocacy group. Key findings based on the comments provided by 48% of the interviewees indicated the need of incorporating BRA into other (e.g., existing) processes with the importance of alignment between processes being stressed in the comments provided by 59% of the interviewees. Commencing BRA early in the product lifecycle was emphasized in comments provided by 44% of the interviewees. Among other needs identified were an appropriate contextualization of benefits and risks (based on comments provided by 41% of interviewees) through adoption of an integrated approach with structured support by regulatory agencies and a need for understanding the audience with better communication of benefit-risk (BR) among all stakeholders (based on comments provided by 44% of the interviewees). Almost all comments provided by interviewees (96%) highlighted the importance of utilizing patient experience/preference to guide new product development and BRA. Comments provided by 74% of the interviewees expressed the need to understand patient tolerance for risk and trade-offs, with a majority (78%) of interviewees highlighting how to gather information, and 59% stressing the need for the selection and development of appropriate methodologies as important considerations for enhancing the quality and relevance of the data collected from patients. CONCLUSIONS: Interviewees indicated that BRA should commence early in the medical product development and inform decision-making throughout the product lifecycle. Better planning and integration of BRA into existing processes within industry would be valuable. The importance of incorporating the patient voice into BRA and medical product development was emphasized. Other key findings from the KOL interviews included a need for improved communication of BR information, and establishment of methodologies for performing BRA and soliciting patient input.

The utility of real-world evidence for benefit-risk assessment, communication, and evaluation of pharmaceuticals: Case studies.

PURPOSE: In recent years, novel types of real-world evidence (RWE) have played a role in various decision-making processes relating to medicinal products, including regulatory approval, patient access, health technology assessment, safety monitoring, clinical use, and post-approval lifecycle management. We therefore reviewed the potential utility of RWE in the cycle of medicinal product benefit-risk (BR) assessment, communication/risk minimization and evaluation ("BRACE"). METHODS: A convenience sample of illustrative studies was drawn from the published literature and examined. Specifically, we examined the purpose for using RWE, the type of RWE used, its novelty and how it might be integrated with other data and activities of the BRACE cycle, and how it contributed to regulatory decision-making. RESULTS: Eight studies were selected with each illustrating a different activity in the BRACE cycle ranging from BR assessment in the preapproval setting, post-approval assessment of safety or effectiveness, communicating BR information to patients and healthcare professionals, and evaluating the effectiveness of risk minimization initiatives to support a positive BR balance. CONCLUSIONS: RWE has an important role in informing regulatory decision-making regarding the BR management of medicines. With increasing digitalization, facilitating data collection and stakeholder engagement in health, this role is only expected to expand in the future. To reach the full potential of RWE, both regulators and sponsors will need to be familiar with a range of existing and emerging methods for generating and analyzing such evidence appropriately and achieve convergence regarding how different types of RWE can best be used to inform BR management and decision-making.

Leflunomide use during pregnancy and the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: Leflunomide is known to be embryotoxic and teratogenic in rodents. However, there is less evidence in humans. We quantified the risk of major congenital malformation (MCM), prematurity, low birth weight (LBW) and spontaneous abortion associated with leflunomide exposure during pregnancy in humans. METHODS: From a cohort of 289 688 pregnancies in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, from 1998 to 2015, first-trimester leflunomide exposure and other antirheumatic drug exposures were studied for their association with MCM and spontaneous abortions. Also second or third-trimester leflunomide exposures were examined for associations with prematurity and LBW. Logistic regression model-based generalised estimating equations were used. RESULTS: 51 pregnancies were exposed to leflunomide during the first trimester, and 21 during the second/third trimesters. Adjusting for potential confounders, use of leflunomide during the first trimester of pregnancy was not associated with the risk of MCM (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.97, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.16; 5 exposed cases). No association was found between second/third-trimester exposure to leflunomide and the risk of prematurity (aOR 4.03, 95% CI 0.91 to 17.85; 7 exposed cases) nor LBW (aOR 1.06, 95%CI 0.90 to 1.25; 8 exposed cases). Pregnancy exposure to leflunomide was also not associated with the risk of spontaneous abortion (aOR 1.09, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.32; 11 exposed cases). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal exposure to leflunomide during pregnancy was not associated with statistically significant increased risk of MCMs, prematurity, LBW or spontaneous abortions. However, given that relatively few women were exposed to leflunomide during pregnancy in this cohort, caution remains warranted.

Validation of New Signal Detection Methods for Web Query Log Data Compared to Signal Detection Algorithms Used With FAERS.

INTRODUCTION: Post-marketing drug surveillance is largely based on signals found in spontaneous reports from patients and healthcare providers. Rare adverse drug reactions and adverse events (AEs) that may develop after long-term exposure to a drug or from drug interactions may be missed. The US FDA and others have proposed that web-based data could be mined as a resource to detect latent signals associated with adverse drug reactions. METHODS: Recently, a web-based search query method called a query log reaction score (QLRS) was developed to detect whether AEs associated with certain drugs could be found from search engine query data. In this study, we compare the performance of two other algorithms, the proportional query ratio (PQR) and the proportional query rate ratio (Q-PRR) against that of two reference signal-detection algorithms (SDAs) commonly used with the FDA AE Reporting System (FAERS) database. RESULTS: In summary, the web query methods have moderate sensitivity (80%) in detecting signals in web query data compared with reference SDAs in FAERS when the web query data are filtered, but the query metrics generate many false-positives and have low specificity compared with reference SDAs in FAERS. CONCLUSION: Future research is needed to find better refinements of query data and/or the metrics to improve the specificity of these web query log algorithms.

ASSOCIATION BETWEEN HYPOGLYCEMIA AND FALL-RELATED FRACTURES AND HEALTH CARE UTILIZATION IN OLDER VETERANS WITH TYPE 2 DIABETES.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between hypoglycemia and fall-related outcomes in older patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used electronic medical records of T2DM patients (≥65 years) from the Veterans Integrated Service Network 16 (VISN 16) data warehouse (01/01/2004-06/30/2010). Patients in nonhypoglycemia group (non-HG) were 1:1 randomly matched with patients in hypoglycemia group (HG) by age (±5 years), sex, race, and medical center location. Fall-related events (i.e., fractures and head injuries) were identified, with a fall being the external cause within ±2 days. McNemar tests and generalized estimating equation (GEE) models were used to compare fall-related events in the 1-year outcome period after the index date (i.e., date of first hypoglycemic episode). We also examined fall-related healthcare utilization. RESULTS: A total of 4,215 patients in each group were studied, with the mean age of 76.5 years (SD: 5.85). The mean Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) scores were 5.73 (SD: 2.95) in the HG and 4.34 (SD: 2.40) in the non-HG. The HG had significantly higher rates of fall-related events than non-HG, 27 (0.64%) versus 1 (0.02%) and 89 (2.11%) versus 21 (0.50%) events within 30 days and 1 year, respectively. GEE models confirmed the elevated risk of fall-related events after controlling for sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, comorbidities, and medication use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.70; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.64-4.47). The HG patients were more likely to have emergency department (ED) visits, hospital admissions, and long-term care placement compared to their counterparts. CONCLUSION: Hypoglycemia is associated with worse fall-related outcomes among the elderly veterans.

Association between hypoglycemia and fall-related events in type 2 diabetes mellitus: analysis of a U.S. commercial database.

BACKGROUND: Hypoglycemia is a major barrier to achieving optimal glycemic control and managing diabetes successfully in patients with diabetes. Falls are the most significant consequences caused by hypoglycemia episodes. Both hypoglycemia and falls lead to substantial economic burden on the health care system in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of hypoglycemia with fall-related outcomes in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: Records were obtained for T2DM patients (N = 1,147,937) from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2011. The nonhypoglycemia patients were randomly matched 1:1 by age and gender to the hypoglycemia patients. Fall-related events (composite of fall-related outcomes) were defined using ICD-9-CM codes. Conditional logistic regression models were used to compare the fall-related events within 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, and 365 days between the 2 cohorts. RESULTS: A total of 21,613 hypoglycemia patients were matched with 21,613 nonhypoglycemic patients. Patients with hypoglycemia had higher fall-related events within 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, and 365 days (P less than 0.001 for all frequency differences). Conditional logistic regression analyses showed an elevated risk for fall-related events over 365 days (aOR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.70-2.24). Subgroup analysis showed elevated risk for patients aged less than 75 years and ≥ 75 years. Elevated risks were also seen for individual fall-related outcomes of fractures, head injuries, long-term care placement, and hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of fall-related events over 365 days increased 2-fold among elderly patients with diabetes who experienced hypoglycemia.

Estimates of current and future incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the U.S. adult population.

Estimates and projections of diagnosed incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the United States have been highly inconsistent across published studies. Although it is generally acknowledged that AF incidence and prevalence are increasing due to growing numbers of older people in the U.S. population, estimates of the rate of expected growth have varied widely. Reasons for these variations include differences in study design, covered time period, birth cohort, and temporal effects, as well as improvements in AF diagnosis due to increased use of diagnostic tools and health care awareness. The objective of this study was to estimate and project the incidence and prevalence of diagnosed AF in the United States out to 2030. A large health insurance claims database for the years 2001 to 2008, representing a geographically diverse 5% of the U.S. population, was used in this study. The trend and growth rate in AF incidence and prevalence was projected by a dynamic age-period cohort simulation progression model that included all diagnosed AF cases in future prevalence projections regardless of follow-up treatment, as well as those cases expected to be chronic in nature. Results from the model showed that AF incidence will double, from 1.2 million cases in 2010 to 2.6 million cases in 2030. Given this increase in incidence, AF prevalence is projected to increase from 5.2 million in 2010 to 12.1 million cases in 2030. The effect of uncertainty in model parameters was explored in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Variability in future trends in AF incidence and recurrence rates has the greatest impact on the projected estimates of chronic AF prevalence. It can be concluded that both incidence and prevalence of AF are likely to rise from 2010 to 2030, but there exists a wide range of uncertainty around the magnitude of future trends.

Does packaging with a calendar feature improve adherence to self-administered medication for long-term use? A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The therapeutic benefit of self-administered medications for long-term use is limited by an average 50% nonadherence rate. Patient forgetfulness is a common factor in unintentional nonadherence. Unit-of-use packaging that incorporates a simple day-and-date feature (calendar packaging) is designed to improve adherence by prompting patients to maintain the prescribed dosing schedule. OBJECTIVE: To review systematically, in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement, randomized controlled trial evidence of the adherence benefits and harms of calendar blister packaging (CBP) and calendar pill organizers (CPO) for self-administered, long-term medication use. METHODS: Data sources included the MEDLINE and Web of Science and Cochrane Library databases from their inception to September 2010 and communication with researchers in the field. Key search terms included blister-calendar pack, blister pack, drug packaging, medication adherence, medication compliance, medication compliance devices, medication containers, medication organizers, multicompartment compliance aid, persistence, pill-box organizers, prescription refill, randomized controlled trials, and refill compliance. Selected studies had an English-language title; a randomized controlled design; medication packaged in CBP or CPO; a requirement of solid, oral medication self-administered daily for longer than 1 month in community-dwelling adults; and at least 1 quantitative outcome measure of adherence. Two reviewers extracted data independently on study design, sample size, type of intervention and control, and outcomes. RESULTS: Ten trials with a total of 1045 subjects met the inclusion criteria, and 9 also examined clinical outcomes (seizures, blood pressure, psychiatric symptoms) or health care resource utilization. Substantial heterogeneity among trials precluded meta-analysis. In 3 studies, calendar packaging was part of a multicomponent adherence intervention. Six of 10 trials reported higher adherence, but it was associated with clinically significant improvement in only 1 study: 50% decreased seizure frequency with a CPO-based, multicomponent intervention. No study reported sufficient information to examine conclusively potential harms related to calendar packaging. LIMITATIONS: All trials had significant methodological limitations, such as inadequate randomization or blinding, or reported insufficient information regarding enrolled subjects and attrition, which resulted in a moderate-to-high risk of bias and, in 2 studies, unevaluable outcome data. Trials were generally short and sample sizes small, with heterogeneous adherence outcome measures. CONCLUSIONS: Calendar packaging, especially in combination with education and reminder strategies, may improve medication adherence. Methodological limitations preclude definitive conclusions about the effect size of adherence and clinical benefits or harms associated with CBP and CPO. High-quality trials of adequate size and duration are needed to assess the clinical effectiveness of such interventions.

An epidemiologic review of smokeless tobacco health effects and harm reduction potential.

A systematic review of the epidemiologic literature on the health effects of smokeless tobacco (ST) and its relevance to the harm reduction model for smoking was undertaken. Published epidemiologic studies, from the US and European countries, meeting defined inclusion criteria and assessing the health effects of smokeless tobacco products were examined. ST use showed evidence of a slightly increased risk for all-cause mortality. Little evidence was found to support a causal relationship between ST use and risk of oral, pancreatic or lung cancer. ST use was not associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease or stroke incidence, but evidence suggested ST use was associated with increased mortality from these diseases. Clinical trials evaluating the effectiveness of ST products in smoking cessation have been sparse, and no standardized method for measuring ST dependence has been used, limiting the assessment of their relationship to ST use. Several studies have examined if ST use increases the risk of smoking initiation, but few have modeled this complex behavior appropriately. Overall, epidemiologic studies have not shown strong evidence of elevated tobacco-related disease risks with ST use. More research is necessary to assess the smoking behavioral consequences of ST use prior to its consideration as a harm reduction tool.

Early microcirculatory perfusion derangements in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock: relationship to hemodynamics, oxygen transport, and survival.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To study early microcirculatory perfusion indices in patients with severe sepsis/septic shock, compare early microcirculatory indices in sepsis survivors versus nonsurvivors, and identify systemic hemodynamic/oxygen transport variables that correlate with early microcirculatory perfusion indices. METHODS: This prospective observational study used orthogonal polarization spectral imaging to directly visualize the sublingual microcirculation in patients with severe sepsis/septic shock treated with early goal-directed therapy. We performed initial imaging within 6 hours of early goal-directed therapy initiation and late follow-up studies at 24-hour intervals until death or resolution of organ dysfunction. We imaged 5 sublingual sites and analyzed the data offline in a blinded fashion. We calculated 3 microcirculatory perfusion indices: flow velocity score, flow heterogeneity index, and capillary density. We analyzed early data to compare survivors versus nonsurvivors and examine correlations with systemic hemodynamic measurements. We used a linear mixed-effects model for longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: We performed 66 orthogonal polarization spectral studies in 26 sepsis patients. Early microcirculatory indices were more markedly impaired (lower flow velocity and more heterogeneous perfusion) in nonsurvivors compared with survivors. These same early indices, flow velocity and heterogeneity, were also more markedly impaired with increasing severity of systemic cardiovascular dysfunction (lower arterial pressure or increasing vasopressor requirement). CONCLUSION: Early microcirculatory perfusion indices in severe sepsis and septic shock are more markedly impaired in nonsurvivors compared with survivors and with increasing severity of global cardiovascular dysfunction.

The joint effect of smoking and AIB1 on breast cancer risk in BRCA1 mutation carriers.

Women with BRCA1 mutations are at an elevated risk for breast cancer. AIB1 (NCOA3/SRC3) genotype and smoking may alter this risk. We examined the differences in breast cancer risk by AIB1 polyglutamine repeat polymorphism and pre-diagnosis smoking habits for BRCA1 mutation carriers to determine if there was an interaction between smoking and AIB1 genotype. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used with 316 female BRCA1 mutation carriers to model breast cancer risk. Ever having smoked was associated with a decreased breast cancer risk [Hazard Ratio (HR) = 0.63, 95% CI, 0.47-0.87]. A dose-response relationship between number of pack-years smoked and breast cancer risk was also found for women who smoked <20 pack years of cigarettes (HR = 0.72, 95% CI, 0.52-1.00) and for women who smoked >/=20 pack years (HR = 0.41, 95% CI, 0.23-0.71; P for trend = 0.0007). Women with a 28 repeat allele for AIB1 had a significantly reduced risk of breast cancer (HR = 0.72, 95% CI, 0.51-1.00). Women who smoked >/=20 pack-years with a 28 repeat allele had an even greater reduced risk of breast cancer (HR = 0.19, 95% CI, 0.07-0.54) compared to women who were never smokers with no 28 allele. Since AIB1 appears to modulate the effect of endogenous hormones via the estrogen receptor, and smoking affects circulating hormone levels, these results support evidence that steroid hormones play an important role in breast carcinogenesis in BRCA1 mutation carriers, and suggest mechanisms for developing novel cancer prevention strategies for BRCA1 mutation carriers.

Association of catechol-O-methyltransferase with smoking cessation in two independent studies of women.

OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: The Val108/158Met polymorphism in the gene that encodes COMT, a dopamine metabolizing enzyme, results in a three- to four-fold reduction in COMT activity. To determine if the lower activity Met allele of COMT was associated with smoking cessation in women, we used two independent studies: a population-based case--control study and a nicotine replacement clinical trial. RESULTS: In the case--control study, women with two Met alleles were significantly more likely to be ex-smokers than current smokers [OR=1.82, 95% CI (1.05, 3.17), P=0.03]. In the nicotine replacement clinical trial, among women, the Met/Met genotype was associated with a higher probability of smoking cessation based on both point prevalence and prolonged abstinence outcomes [OR=2.96, 95% CI (1.07, 8.14), P=0.04; OR=3.23, 95% CI (1.13, 9.20), P=0.03, respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: This first report of a significant association between COMT Val108/158Met and smoking cessation suggests that COMT variation has an effect on smoking behavior in women.

Confirmed locus on chromosome 11p and candidate loci on 6q and 8p for the triglyceride and cholesterol traits of combined hyperlipidemia.

UNLABELLED: Background- Combined hyperlipidemia is a common disorder characterized by a highly atherogenic lipoprotein profile and increased risk of coronary heart disease. The etiology of the lipid abnormalities (increased serum cholesterol and triglyceride or either lipid alone) is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: We assembled 2 large cohorts of families with familial combined hyperlipidemia (FCHL) and performed disease and quantitative trait linkage analyses to evaluate the inheritance of the lipid abnormalities. Chromosomal regions 6q16.1-q16.3, 8p23.3-p22, and 11p14.1-q12.1 produced evidence for linkage to FCHL. Chromosomes 6 and 8 are newly identified candidate loci that may respectively contribute to the triglyceride (logarithm of odds [LOD], 1.43; P=0.005) and cholesterol (LOD, 2.2; P=0.0007) components of this condition. The data for chromosome 11 readily fulfil the guidelines required for a confirmed linkage. The causative alleles may contribute to the inheritance of the cholesterol (LOD, 2.04 at 35.2 cM; P=0.0011) component of FCHL as well as the triglyceride trait (LOD, 2.7 at 48.7 cM; P=0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic analyses identify 2 potentially new loci for FCHL and provide important positional information for cloning the genes within the chromosome 11p14.1-q12.1 interval that contributes to the lipid abnormalities of this highly atherogenic disorder.

Evidence for gene-environment interactions in a linkage study of asthma and smoking exposure.

BACKGROUND: Asthma, a common and chronic disease of the airways, has a multifactorial cause involving both genetic and environmental factors. As a result, mapping genes that influence asthma susceptibility has been challenging. OBJECTIVE: This study tests the hypothesis that inclusion of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), a potential risk factor for asthma, would improve the ability to map genes for asthma. METHODS: By using 144 white families from the Collaborative Study for the Genetics of Asthma, environmental information about exposure to ETS during infancy was incorporated into a genome-wide multipoint linkage analysis. Statistical significance of observed gene-environment interactions was assessed by means of simulation. RESULTS: Three regions with nominal evidence for linkage when stratified on the basis of ETS exposure were identified (P <.01) and showed a significant increase from the baseline lod score (1p at 97 cM, D1S1669-D1S1665; 5q at 135 cM, D5S1505-D5S816; and 9q at 106 cM, D9S910; all P <.05). In addition, 2 other regions, although not meeting nominal significance after stratification on the basis of ETS exposure, showed a significant increase from baseline lod score when ETS was taken into account (1q at 240 cM, D1S549; 17p at 3 cM, D17S1308; all P <.01). CONCLUSION: These results illustrate how evidence for linkage of asthma can depend on exposure to an environmental factor, such as ETS. Future linkage analyses should include information on suspected environmental factors for asthma to help target new candidate susceptibility genes for asthma.